Port FC 3-3 Uthai Thani – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Port FC at 65% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Port FC vs Uthai Thani encounter.

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Fixture Analysis

Port FC welcome Uthai Thani to PAT Stadium in Thai League 1 (matchday 21). Kick-off is Saturday 9 March 2024 at 13:00 UK time.

Recent Form

Across their last 10 games, Port FC have gone 6W 3D 1L — a 2.10 PPG return. Last five: W W D W D. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.

At home, Port FC have gone 8W 0D 2L in their last 10 home games (2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.90 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Uthai Thani — last 10 games: 1W 5D 4L — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D L D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).

Uthai Thani's away record over their last 9 away games: 3W 1D 5L (1.11 PPG). Away from home they average 1.11 goals scored and 1.89 conceded per game.

On current form, Port FC have the edge — a 1.30 PPG advantage (2.10 vs 0.80) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.

H2H

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 1 H2H match, Port FC have won 1, Uthai Thani 0, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 1 H2H match in our data have been high-scoring — 6.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 6 Oct 2023, ended Port FC 5–1 Uthai Thani — a Port FC win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 6.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading Patterns

Port FC in-play and half-time data (last 20 games, 9 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 100% of their matches in home games; they lead at the break 50% of the time; of the 5 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 60%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 78% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 55%.

Uthai Thani in-play and half-time data (last 20 games, 9 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they fail to score in 35% of games.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Port FC 70% and Uthai Thani 55% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Port FC 70% | Uthai Thani 50%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Port FC 2.33 xG and Uthai Thani 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Port FC attack 1.311 / defence 1.086 | Uthai Thani attack 0.789 / defence 1.059. League average goals — home 1.675 / away 1.171. Port FC carry an above-average attack rating of 1.311 — their 2.33 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Uthai Thani's attack rating of 0.789 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.00. Data: built from Port FC's last 50 games and Uthai Thani's last 20.

Result probabilities: Port FC 65% | Draw 21% | Uthai Thani 13%. Fair-value odds: Port FC 1.53 | Draw 4.66 | Uthai Thani 7.56. The model has a clear lean to Port FC (65%) — a 44pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS Yes probability 59% | Total xG 3.33. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.33 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 59% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Port FC as the most likely outcome at 65% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

The Poisson model projects 3.33 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 65% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Port FC's last 10 home games and Uthai Thani's last 9 away games) averaging 3.6 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Port FC 70% (last 10 home games) | Uthai Thani 44% (last 9 away games).

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