Muangthong United 1-1 Chiangrai United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Muangthong United at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Muangthong United vs Chiangrai United fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Thai League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 22 sees Chiangrai United travel to Thunder Dome Stadium to take on Muangthong United. The game is scheduled for Sunday 27 February 2022, 12:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Muangthong United stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L W D L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Muangthong United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Muangthong United's home record at Thunder Dome Stadium: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Thai League 1 appearances (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Muangthong United are significantly better at Thunder Dome Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Chiangrai United — All Games: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Thai League 1 fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L D W L W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Chiangrai United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Chiangrai United have gone 7W 0D 2L from 9 away fixtures this term (2.33 PPG). Away from home they average 1.67 goals scored and 0.89 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 9 away games (44%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 2.33 exceeds their overall 1.60 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Muangthong United at 1.50 PPG versus Chiangrai United's 1.60. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Muangthong United, 0 for Chiangrai United and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 17 Oct 2021, ended 1–0 with Muangthong United winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Muangthong United trading profile (22 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games).
Chiangrai United trading profile (22 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Muangthong United 64% versus Chiangrai United 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Muangthong United 54% | Chiangrai United 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Muangthong United 1.26 xG and Chiangrai United 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Muangthong United attack 1.246 / defence 1.141 | Chiangrai United attack 0.990 / defence 1.035. League average goals — home 0.978 / away 1.102. Data: 22 Muangthong United games / 22 Chiangrai United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Muangthong United 37% | Draw 27% | Chiangrai United 36%. Fair-value odds: Muangthong United 2.70 | Draw 3.70 | Chiangrai United 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.51. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.51 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Muangthong United as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Muangthong United offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.51 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates corroborate: Muangthong United 80% | Chiangrai United 44% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Muangthong United vs Chiangrai United | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Thunder Dome Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 27 Feb 2022, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Muangthong United 37% | Draw 27% | Chiangrai United 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 51% | xG Muangthong United 1.26 / Chiangrai United 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Muangthong United attack 1.246 / def 1.141 | Chiangrai United attack 0.990 / def 1.035 | league avg home 0.978 / away 1.102 • Poisson stance: Muangthong United (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
Muangthong United xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Chiangrai United xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Muangthong United vs Chiangrai United kick off?
Muangthong United vs Chiangrai United kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 27 February 2022 at Thunder Dome Stadium.
What was the final score in Muangthong United vs Chiangrai United?
Muangthong United 1 - 1 Chiangrai United.
Where is Muangthong United vs Chiangrai United being played?
The match is being played at Thunder Dome Stadium.
What competition is Muangthong United vs Chiangrai United part of?
Muangthong United vs Chiangrai United is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Muangthong United vs Chiangrai United?
Our statistical model gives Muangthong United a 37% chance of winning, Chiangrai United a 36% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Muangthong United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Muangthong United vs Chiangrai United?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Muangthong United and Chiangrai United will score (BTTS).
Will Muangthong United vs Chiangrai United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Muangthong United and Chiangrai United?
Record (1 meetings): Muangthong United 1W | Draws 0 | Chiangrai United 0W.
What form are Muangthong United and Chiangrai United in?
Muangthong United (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-W-D-L. Chiangrai United (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Muangthong United's attacking strength (1.25x league average) is weighed against Chiangrai United's defensive record (1.03x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.26. The same calculation in reverse, Chiangrai United's attack versus Muangthong United's defence, projects 1.25 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 22/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.8%), 1-0 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Muangthong United Win
37%
2.73
27%
3.64
36%
2.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
0 – 1
10.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
Muangthong United xG
Total xG
2.51
1.25
Chiangrai United xG
2.73
37%
Home win
3.64
27%
Draw
2.79
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
29%
3.47
28%
3.53
Win to Nil
11%
9.48
10%
9.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 10.2 | 6.3 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 12.8 | 8.0 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 8.1 | 5.0 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.4 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Muangthong United vs Chiangrai United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Muangthong United and Chiangrai United expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Muangthong United and 1.25 for Chiangrai United, a combined total of 2.51.
How confident is the prediction model for Muangthong United vs Chiangrai United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Muangthong United's recent record stands at 9W 7D 6L from 22 games, a 1.55 PPG return, with W-L-W-D-L in the last five. The sample for Muangthong United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Chiangrai United, meanwhile, have gone 11W 3D 8L across 22 games — 1.64 PPG, with L-D-W-L-W in their last five. The sample for Chiangrai United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Muangthong United on 1.55 PPG, Chiangrai United on 1.64. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Muangthong United have managed 6W 2D 1L from 9 games — 2.22 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.55 PPG overall — Muangthong United are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Chiangrai United's away record stands at 7W 0D 2L across 9 trips, a 2.33 PPG haul. That's actually stronger than their 1.64 PPG overall record — Chiangrai United travel well.
The Goals Picture
Muangthong United are averaging 1.41 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Chiangrai United are on 1.18 scored and 1.23 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Muangthong United have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Defensively: Chiangrai United in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 22 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Muangthong United
Blended
Chiangrai United
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Muangthong United and Chiangrai United in coming into this match?
Muangthong United have gone 9W 7D 6L in their last 22 games (1.55 PPG), while Chiangrai United have gone 11W 3D 8L in their last 22 (1.64 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Muangthong United at home or Chiangrai United away?
Chiangrai United's away record (2.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Muangthong United at home: 2.22 PPG; Chiangrai United away: 2.33 PPG.
Have Muangthong United or Chiangrai United been keeping clean sheets recently?
Muangthong United have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Chiangrai United in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Muangthong United and Chiangrai United runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 5 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Muangthong United have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Muangthong United's record when hosting Chiangrai United specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Muangthong United
1
Draws
4
Chiangrai United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Muangthong United and Chiangrai United?
From 10 meetings on record, Muangthong United have won 5, Chiangrai United have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Muangthong United and Chiangrai United last play each other?
They last met on 5 April 2026, when Muangthong United 2-1 Chiangrai United.
Who has won more matches between Muangthong United and Chiangrai United?
Muangthong United have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Muangthong United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Chiangrai United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Muangthong United 78%, Chiangrai United 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Muangthong United) and 44% (Chiangrai United). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Chiangrai United in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Muangthong United home games / Chiangrai United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Muangthong United play Chiangrai United?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 78% of Muangthong United's games and 44% of Chiangrai United's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Muangthong United vs Chiangrai United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Muangthong United's matches and 44% of Chiangrai United's.
Do Muangthong United and Chiangrai United tend to score early?
Muangthong United have had a goal before half-time in 89% of their recent matches, Chiangrai United in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Muangthong United and Chiangrai United share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Thunder Dome Stadium, Regular Season - 22, as Muangthong United and Chiangrai United drew 1-1 in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Muangthong United 1.26 xG and Chiangrai United 1.25 xG, a combined 2.51. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Muangthong United attack 1.25 / defence 1.14 against Chiangrai United attack 0.99 / defence 1.03, drawn from 22/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Muangthong United 37% | Draw 27% | Chiangrai United 36%, with Muangthong United to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Muangthong United 54%, Chiangrai United 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Muangthong United's trading profile (22 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Chiangrai United's trading profile (22 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Muangthong United 1.55 PPG, Chiangrai United 1.64 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Muangthong United (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.