Khon Kaen United 4-0 Police Tero – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Khon Kaen United at 55% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Khon Kaen United vs Police Tero encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Khon Kaen United host Police Tero at Khon Kaen Stadium in Thai League 1 (matchday 23). Kick-off is Wednesday 3 April 2024 at 13:30 UK time.
Form Guide
Khon Kaen United — last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: D L D L W. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
At home, Khon Kaen United have gone 3W 6D 1L in their last 10 home games (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across their last 10 games, Police Tero have recorded 1W 2D 7L — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L L D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.60 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Police Tero away from home: 3W 1D 6L from their last 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.00 exceeds their overall 0.50 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Khon Kaen United carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.70 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.20 vs 0.50. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of Khon Kaen United's games and 80% of Police Tero's (from Khon Kaen United's last 10 home games and Police Tero's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 5 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Khon Kaen United, 1 for Police Tero and 3 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 27 Oct 2023, ended Khon Kaen United 3–1 Police Tero — a Khon Kaen United win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Khon Kaen United in-play tendencies (last 52 games, 25 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 47% of the time; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 23 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 26%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
Police Tero in-play tendencies (last 52 games, 25 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 44%; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Khon Kaen United 48% versus Police Tero 69%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Khon Kaen United 42% | Police Tero 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Khon Kaen United 1.83 xG and Police Tero 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Khon Kaen United attack 0.767 / defence 0.837 | Police Tero attack 1.074 / defence 1.344. League average goals — home 1.779 / away 1.138. Khon Kaen United's attack rating of 0.767 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.83. Police Tero's defence rating of 1.344 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Khon Kaen United's projected output up. Data: built from Khon Kaen United's last 52 games and Police Tero's last 52.
Result probabilities: Khon Kaen United 55% | Draw 25% | Police Tero 20%. Fair-value odds: Khon Kaen United 1.82 | Draw 3.93 | Police Tero 5.13. The model has a clear lean to Khon Kaen United (55%) — a 30pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS Yes probability 55% | Total xG 2.86. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.86 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 55% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Khon Kaen United are the pick at 55% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.86 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Khon Kaen United's last 10 home games and Police Tero's last 10 away games) averaging 3.3 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Khon Kaen United 60% (last 10 home games) | Police Tero 80% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Khon Kaen United vs Police Tero | Competition: Thai League 1, matchday 23 | Venue: Khon Kaen Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 3 April 2024 at 13:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Khon Kaen United 55% | Draw 25% | Police Tero 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% (Under 46%) | BTTS Yes 55% (No 45%) | xG Khon Kaen United 1.83 / Police Tero 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Khon Kaen United attack 0.767 / def 0.837 | Police Tero attack 1.074 / def 1.344 | league avg home 1.779 / away 1.138 • Poisson stance: Khon Kaen United (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.83
Khon Kaen United xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Police Tero xG
55%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Khon Kaen United vs Police Tero FAQs
What time does Khon Kaen United vs Police Tero kick off?
Khon Kaen United vs Police Tero kicked off at 13:30 UK time on Wednesday 3 April 2024 at Khon Kaen Stadium.
What was the final score in Khon Kaen United vs Police Tero?
Khon Kaen United 4 - 0 Police Tero.
Where is Khon Kaen United vs Police Tero being played?
The match is being played at Khon Kaen Stadium.
What competition is Khon Kaen United vs Police Tero part of?
Khon Kaen United vs Police Tero is a Thai League 1 fixture (matchday 23) (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Khon Kaen United vs Police Tero?
Our statistical model gives Khon Kaen United a 55% chance of winning, Police Tero a 20% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Khon Kaen United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Khon Kaen United vs Police Tero?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Khon Kaen United and Police Tero will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Khon Kaen United vs Police Tero have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Khon Kaen United's attacking strength (0.77x league average) is weighed against Police Tero's defensive record (1.34x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.83. The same calculation in reverse, Police Tero's attack versus Khon Kaen United's defence, projects 1.02 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Khon Kaen United's last 52 games and Police Tero's last 52 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Khon Kaen United Win
55%
1.82
25%
3.93
20%
5.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.83
Khon Kaen United xG
Total xG
2.86
1.02
Police Tero xG
1.82
55%
Home win
3.93
25%
Draw
5.13
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.23
Clean Sheet
36%
2.78
16%
6.27
Win to Nil
20%
5.05
3%
32.11
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 5.9 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 10.8 | 5.5 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.7 | 9.9 | 5.1 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.9 | 6.0 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.7 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Khon Kaen United vs Police Tero Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Khon Kaen United vs Police Tero?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Khon Kaen United and Police Tero expected to score?
The model projects 1.83 expected goals for Khon Kaen United and 1.02 for Police Tero, a combined total of 2.86.
How confident is the prediction model for Khon Kaen United vs Police Tero?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 52 outings, Khon Kaen United have picked up 1.10 PPG on a 12W 21D 19L record — D-L-D-L-W across the most recent five.
Police Tero's form line: 16W 15D 21L from 52 games, 1.21 PPG, last five L-L-D-L-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Khon Kaen United on 1.10 PPG, Police Tero on 1.21. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Khon Kaen United have posted 1.60 PPG from their last 25 home games (9W 13D 3L). That's noticeably better than their 1.10 PPG overall — Khon Kaen United are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Police Tero have gone 7W 5D 13L from their last 25 away games — 1.04 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Khon Kaen United come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Khon Kaen United are averaging 0.94 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game recently; Police Tero are on 1.35 scored and 1.83 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Police Tero in 69%.
Last 52 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Khon Kaen United
Blended
Police Tero
Blended
Khon Kaen United (Home) vs Police Tero (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Khon Kaen United
Blended
Police Tero
Blended
❓ Khon Kaen United vs Police Tero Form FAQs
What form are Khon Kaen United and Police Tero in coming into this match?
Khon Kaen United have gone 12W 21D 19L in their last 52 games (1.10 PPG), while Police Tero have gone 16W 15D 21L in their last 52 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Khon Kaen United at home or Police Tero away?
Khon Kaen United's home record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Khon Kaen United at home: 1.60 PPG; Police Tero away: 1.04 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 6 H2H matches in our data, going back to November 2021. All of them came in Thai League 1. The most recent in our data was on 3 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Khon Kaen United have won the most recent 2 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 3 Apr 2024, when Khon Kaen United won Khon Kaen United 4-0 Police Tero.
Khon Kaen United's record when hosting Police Tero specifically: 1W 2D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Khon Kaen United
3
Draws
1
Police Tero
Recent Meetings
❓ Khon Kaen United vs Police Tero H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Khon Kaen United and Police Tero?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Khon Kaen United have won 2, Police Tero have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Khon Kaen United and Police Tero last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 3 April 2024: Khon Kaen United 4-0 Police Tero.
Who has won more matches between Khon Kaen United and Police Tero?
Khon Kaen United have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Khon Kaen United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Police Tero are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 43% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Khon Kaen United 48%, Police Tero 72% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Khon Kaen United) and 68% (Police Tero).
On the defensive side: Khon Kaen United keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Khon Kaen United have failed to score in 36% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Khon Kaen United home games / Police Tero away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Khon Kaen United vs Police Tero Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Khon Kaen United and Police Tero matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 48% of Khon Kaen United's games and 72% of Police Tero's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Khon Kaen United and Police Tero matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Khon Kaen United's recent games and 68% of Police Tero's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Khon Kaen United and Police Tero matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 64% of Khon Kaen United's recent matches and 80% of Police Tero's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Khon Kaen United run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Police Tero.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Khon Kaen United beat Police Tero 4-0 at Khon Kaen Stadium, Regular Season - 23, in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Khon Kaen United 1.83 xG and Police Tero 1.02 xG, a combined 2.86. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Khon Kaen United beat their projection by 2.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Police Tero landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Khon Kaen United attack 0.77 / defence 0.84 against Police Tero attack 1.07 / defence 1.34, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Khon Kaen United 55% | Draw 25% | Police Tero 20%, with Khon Kaen United to win its most likely call at 55%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Khon Kaen United 42%, Police Tero 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Khon Kaen United's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not.
Police Tero's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Khon Kaen United 1.10 PPG, Police Tero 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Khon Kaen United win broke the near-deadlock. Khon Kaen United (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.08 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Police Tero (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.40 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 2.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.