Khon Kaen United 0-0 Nakhon Ratchasima FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Khon Kaen United at 39%, yet in-form Nakhon Ratchasima FC provide a compelling counter-argument — this Khon Kaen United vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Thai League 1 clash, Regular Season - 11 as Khon Kaen United welcome Nakhon Ratchasima FC to Khon Kaen Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 26 October 2024 at 13:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Khon Kaen United have gone 1W 3D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.60 PPG return. Last five: L D D L W. They are averaging 0.30 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Khon Kaen United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Khon Kaen United's form when playing at home: 2W 4D 4L across 10 games at Khon Kaen Stadium this term (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Nakhon Ratchasima FC — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Thai League 1 fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Nakhon Ratchasima FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Nakhon Ratchasima FC's away record: 1W 2D 2L from 5 road trips in Thai League 1 this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Nakhon Ratchasima FC are 0.70 PPG ahead (1.30 vs 0.60), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Khon Kaen United, 1 for Nakhon Ratchasima FC and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Feb 2023, ended 3–2 with Khon Kaen United winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Khon Kaen United in-play and half-time data (10 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they fail to score in 70% of games.
Nakhon Ratchasima FC in-play and half-time data (10 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Khon Kaen United 20% versus Nakhon Ratchasima FC 80%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Khon Kaen United 30% | Nakhon Ratchasima FC 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Khon Kaen United 1.16 xG and Nakhon Ratchasima FC 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Khon Kaen United attack 0.629 / defence 1.087 | Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 0.727 / defence 1.073. League average goals — home 1.717 / away 1.125. Khon Kaen United's attack strength of 0.629 is below the league average — the 1.16 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 40 Khon Kaen United games / 10 Nakhon Ratchasima FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Khon Kaen United 39% | Draw 36% | Nakhon Ratchasima FC 25%. Fair-value odds: Khon Kaen United 2.56 | Draw 2.78 | Nakhon Ratchasima FC 4.00. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 36% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.05. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.05 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Khon Kaen United as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Nakhon Ratchasima FC (1.30 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 36% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Khon Kaen United offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.05 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 34% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 43%. Form rates are neutral: Khon Kaen United 50% | Nakhon Ratchasima FC 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Khon Kaen United vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Khon Kaen Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 26 Oct 2024, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Khon Kaen United 39% | Draw 36% | Nakhon Ratchasima FC 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 43% | xG Khon Kaen United 1.16 / Nakhon Ratchasima FC 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: Khon Kaen United attack 0.629 / def 1.087 | Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 0.727 / def 1.073 | league avg home 1.717 / away 1.125 • Poisson stance: Khon Kaen United (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
Khon Kaen United xG
Expected Goals
0.89
Nakhon Ratchasima FC xG
43%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Khon Kaen United vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC kick off?
Khon Kaen United vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 26 October 2024 at Khon Kaen Stadium.
What was the final score in Khon Kaen United vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
Khon Kaen United 0 - 0 Nakhon Ratchasima FC.
Where is Khon Kaen United vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC being played?
The match is being played at Khon Kaen Stadium.
What competition is Khon Kaen United vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC part of?
Khon Kaen United vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Khon Kaen United vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
Our statistical model gives Khon Kaen United a 39% chance of winning, Nakhon Ratchasima FC a 25% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw — making Khon Kaen United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Khon Kaen United vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Khon Kaen United and Nakhon Ratchasima FC will score (BTTS).
Will Khon Kaen United vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Khon Kaen United and Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
Record (4 meetings): Khon Kaen United 2W | Draws 1 | Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1W.
What form are Khon Kaen United and Nakhon Ratchasima FC in?
Khon Kaen United (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-D-L-W. Nakhon Ratchasima FC (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-W-L-L.
What do the betting odds say about Khon Kaen United vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Khon Kaen United's attack at 0.63x the league average against Nakhon Ratchasima FC's defence at 1.07x — combine the two and it projects 1.16 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Nakhon Ratchasima FC's attack versus Khon Kaen United's defence, projects 0.89 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 40/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.6%), 1-0 (13.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Khon Kaen United Win
39%
2.56
36%
2.79
25%
3.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
12.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
Khon Kaen United xG
Total xG
2.05
0.89
Nakhon Ratchasima FC xG
2.56
39%
Home win
2.79
36%
Draw
3.98
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.31
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
41%
2.43
31%
3.19
Win to Nil
16%
6.23
8%
12.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.9 | 11.5 | 5.1 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.0 | 13.3 | 5.9 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 7.7 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.3 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Khon Kaen United vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Khon Kaen United and Nakhon Ratchasima FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for Khon Kaen United and 0.89 for Nakhon Ratchasima FC, a combined total of 2.05.
How confident is the prediction model for Khon Kaen United vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Khon Kaen United's recent record stands at 1W 3D 6L from 10 games, a 0.60 PPG return, with L-D-D-L-W in the last five. The sample for Khon Kaen United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Nakhon Ratchasima FC, meanwhile, have gone 3W 4D 3L across 10 games — 1.30 PPG, with D-L-W-L-L in their last five. The sample for Nakhon Ratchasima FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Nakhon Ratchasima FC by 0.70 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Khon Kaen United heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Khon Kaen United have managed 0W 1D 4L from 5 games — 0.20 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Nakhon Ratchasima FC's away record stands at 1W 2D 2L across 5 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Nakhon Ratchasima FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Khon Kaen United are averaging 0.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; Nakhon Ratchasima FC are on 1.20 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Khon Kaen United have seen both teams score in 20% of their recent games; Nakhon Ratchasima FC in 80%.
Last 10 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Khon Kaen United
Blended
Nakhon Ratchasima FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Khon Kaen United and Nakhon Ratchasima FC in coming into this match?
Khon Kaen United have gone 1W 3D 6L in their last 10 games (0.60 PPG), while Nakhon Ratchasima FC have gone 3W 4D 3L in their last 10 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Khon Kaen United at home or Nakhon Ratchasima FC away?
Nakhon Ratchasima FC's away record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Khon Kaen United at home: 0.20 PPG; Nakhon Ratchasima FC away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Khon Kaen United or Nakhon Ratchasima FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Khon Kaen United have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Nakhon Ratchasima FC in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Khon Kaen United's record when hosting Nakhon Ratchasima FC specifically: 1W 2D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Khon Kaen United
2
Draws
2
Nakhon Ratchasima FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Khon Kaen United and Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
From 6 meetings on record, Khon Kaen United have won 2, Nakhon Ratchasima FC have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Khon Kaen United and Nakhon Ratchasima FC last play each other?
They last met on 9 March 2025, when Nakhon Ratchasima FC 3-1 Khon Kaen United.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Khon Kaen United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Nakhon Ratchasima FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Khon Kaen United 20%, Nakhon Ratchasima FC 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Khon Kaen United) and 40% (Nakhon Ratchasima FC).
On the defensive side: Khon Kaen United have failed to score in 80% of games; Nakhon Ratchasima FC in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Khon Kaen United home games / Nakhon Ratchasima FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Khon Kaen United play Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 20% of Khon Kaen United's recent matches and 60% of Nakhon Ratchasima FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Khon Kaen United vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Khon Kaen United's recent games and 40% of Nakhon Ratchasima FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Khon Kaen United and Nakhon Ratchasima FC tend to score early?
Khon Kaen United have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Nakhon Ratchasima FC in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Khon Kaen United's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Khon Kaen United and Nakhon Ratchasima FC finished level at 0-0 at Khon Kaen Stadium, Regular Season - 11, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Khon Kaen United 1.16 xG and Nakhon Ratchasima FC 0.89 xG, a combined 2.05. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Khon Kaen United fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Nakhon Ratchasima FC landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Khon Kaen United attack 0.63 / defence 1.09 against Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 0.73 / defence 1.07, drawn from 40/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Khon Kaen United 39% | Draw 36% | Nakhon Ratchasima FC 25%, with Khon Kaen United to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 64% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Khon Kaen United 30%, Nakhon Ratchasima FC 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Khon Kaen United's trading profile (10 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 20% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 70% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Nakhon Ratchasima FC's trading profile (10 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 80% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Nakhon Ratchasima FC arrived the stronger side — 1.30 PPG against 0.60. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Khon Kaen United (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line. Nakhon Ratchasima FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.80 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.60 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.