Khon Kaen United 0-1 Chiangrai United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Chiangrai United at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Khon Kaen United vs Chiangrai United fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Thai League 1 clash, Regular Season - 23 as Khon Kaen United welcome Chiangrai United to Khon Kaen Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 5 March 2022 at 11:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Khon Kaen United stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W D W W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Khon Kaen United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Khon Kaen United at Khon Kaen Stadium this season: 4W 4D 2L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Chiangrai United — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Thai League 1 fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D W L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Chiangrai United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Chiangrai United have gone 7W 1D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 2.20 exceeds their overall 1.70 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Khon Kaen United 1.70 PPG, Chiangrai United 1.70 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Khon Kaen United, 1 for Chiangrai United and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 23 Oct 2021, ended 0–1 with Chiangrai United winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Khon Kaen United trading profile (23 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Chiangrai United trading profile (23 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Khon Kaen United 39% versus Chiangrai United 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Khon Kaen United 39% | Chiangrai United 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Khon Kaen United 0.97 xG and Chiangrai United 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Khon Kaen United attack 0.976 / defence 1.177 | Chiangrai United attack 0.987 / defence 1.016. League average goals — home 0.974 / away 1.068. Data: 23 Khon Kaen United games / 23 Chiangrai United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Khon Kaen United 28% | Draw 30% | Chiangrai United 42%. Fair-value odds: Khon Kaen United 3.57 | Draw 3.33 | Chiangrai United 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.21. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.21 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Chiangrai United as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Chiangrai United offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.21 combined xG gives a 38% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Khon Kaen United 40% | Chiangrai United 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Khon Kaen United vs Chiangrai United | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Khon Kaen Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Mar 2022, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Khon Kaen United 28% | Draw 30% | Chiangrai United 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 45% | xG Khon Kaen United 0.97 / Chiangrai United 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Khon Kaen United attack 0.976 / def 1.177 | Chiangrai United attack 0.987 / def 1.016 | league avg home 0.974 / away 1.068 • Poisson stance: Chiangrai United (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.97
Khon Kaen United xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Chiangrai United xG
45%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Khon Kaen United vs Chiangrai United kick off?
Khon Kaen United vs Chiangrai United kicked off at 11:00 on Saturday 5 March 2022 at Khon Kaen Stadium.
What was the final score in Khon Kaen United vs Chiangrai United?
Khon Kaen United 0 - 1 Chiangrai United.
Where is Khon Kaen United vs Chiangrai United being played?
The match is being played at Khon Kaen Stadium.
What competition is Khon Kaen United vs Chiangrai United part of?
Khon Kaen United vs Chiangrai United is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Khon Kaen United vs Chiangrai United?
Our statistical model gives Khon Kaen United a 28% chance of winning, Chiangrai United a 42% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Chiangrai United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Khon Kaen United vs Chiangrai United?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Khon Kaen United and Chiangrai United will score (BTTS).
Will Khon Kaen United vs Chiangrai United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Khon Kaen United and Chiangrai United?
Record (1 meetings): Khon Kaen United 0W | Draws 0 | Chiangrai United 1W.
What form are Khon Kaen United and Chiangrai United in?
Khon Kaen United (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-W-W-L. Chiangrai United (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-W-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Khon Kaen United's attack at 0.98x the league average against Chiangrai United's defence at 1.02x — combine the two and it projects 0.97 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Chiangrai United's attack versus Khon Kaen United's defence, projects 1.24 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 23/23 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.7%), 0-1 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Chiangrai United Win
28%
3.54
30%
3.36
42%
2.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.7%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
0 – 0
11.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.97
Khon Kaen United xG
Total xG
2.21
1.24
Chiangrai United xG
3.54
28%
Home win
3.36
30%
Draw
2.38
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.24
55%
BTTS No
1.80
Clean Sheet
29%
3.46
38%
2.63
Win to Nil
8%
12.26
16%
6.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.0 | 13.7 | 8.5 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 13.2 | 8.2 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 6.4 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Khon Kaen United vs Chiangrai United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Khon Kaen United and Chiangrai United expected to score?
The model projects 0.97 expected goals for Khon Kaen United and 1.24 for Chiangrai United, a combined total of 2.21.
How confident is the prediction model for Khon Kaen United vs Chiangrai United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Khon Kaen United come into this having played 23 games, going 9W 4D 10L for 1.35 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-W-L. The sample for Khon Kaen United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Chiangrai United sit at 1.61 PPG from 23 outings (11W 4D 8L), a run that reads D-W-L-W-D across their last five. The sample for Chiangrai United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Khon Kaen United on 1.35 PPG, Chiangrai United on 1.61. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Khon Kaen United's home form reads 4W 4D 2L across 10 games on their own ground, a 1.60 PPG return.
Away from home, Chiangrai United have taken 2.20 points per game from 10 outings (7W 1D 2L). That's actually stronger than their 1.61 PPG overall record — Chiangrai United travel well.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Chiangrai United come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Khon Kaen United are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; Chiangrai United are on 1.17 scored and 1.22 conceded.
Last 23 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Khon Kaen United
Blended
Chiangrai United
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Khon Kaen United and Chiangrai United in coming into this match?
Khon Kaen United have gone 9W 4D 10L in their last 23 games (1.35 PPG), while Chiangrai United have gone 11W 4D 8L in their last 23 (1.61 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Khon Kaen United at home or Chiangrai United away?
Chiangrai United's away record (2.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Khon Kaen United at home: 1.60 PPG; Chiangrai United away: 2.20 PPG.
Have Khon Kaen United or Chiangrai United been keeping clean sheets recently?
Khon Kaen United have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Chiangrai United in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Khon Kaen United and Chiangrai United runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 27 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Khon Kaen United's record when hosting Chiangrai United specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Khon Kaen United
2
Draws
5
Chiangrai United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Khon Kaen United and Chiangrai United?
From 8 meetings on record, Khon Kaen United have won 1, Chiangrai United have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Khon Kaen United and Chiangrai United last play each other?
They last met on 27 April 2025, when Khon Kaen United 3-1 Chiangrai United.
Who has won more matches between Khon Kaen United and Chiangrai United?
Chiangrai United have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Khon Kaen United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Chiangrai United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Khon Kaen United 40%, Chiangrai United 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 30% for Khon Kaen United and 40% for Chiangrai United.
On the defensive side: Khon Kaen United keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Chiangrai United in 40%; Khon Kaen United have failed to score in 30% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Khon Kaen United home games / Chiangrai United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Khon Kaen United play Chiangrai United?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Khon Kaen United's recent matches and 50% of Chiangrai United's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Khon Kaen United vs Chiangrai United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 30% of Khon Kaen United's recent games and 40% of Chiangrai United's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Khon Kaen United and Chiangrai United tend to score early?
Khon Kaen United have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Chiangrai United in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Chiangrai United edge out Khon Kaen United 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Chiangrai United beat Khon Kaen United 0-1 at Khon Kaen Stadium, Regular Season - 23, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Khon Kaen United 0.97 xG and Chiangrai United 1.24 xG, a combined 2.21. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Khon Kaen United fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Khon Kaen United attack 0.98 / defence 1.18 against Chiangrai United attack 0.99 / defence 1.02, drawn from 23/23 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Khon Kaen United 28% | Draw 30% | Chiangrai United 42%, with Chiangrai United to win its most likely call at 42%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 65% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Khon Kaen United 39%, Chiangrai United 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Khon Kaen United's trading profile (23 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Chiangrai United's trading profile (23 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Khon Kaen United 1.35 PPG, Chiangrai United 1.61 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Chiangrai United win broke the near-deadlock. Khon Kaen United (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Chiangrai United (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.90 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.