Kanchanaburi 4-0 Lamphun Warrior – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lamphun Warrior at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Kanchanaburi vs Lamphun Warrior fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Kanchanaburi host Lamphun Warrior at Kanchanaburi Province Stadium in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 27 September 2025 at 13:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Kanchanaburi — All Games: 0W 3D 2L from 5 Thai League 1 outings this season, averaging 0.60 points per game. Last five: D D L D L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 5 outings provides some defensive foundation. Kanchanaburi have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Lamphun Warrior have recorded 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L D W D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.80. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Lamphun Warrior have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Lamphun Warrior's away record: 2W 4D 4L from 10 road trips in Thai League 1 this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Kanchanaburi 0.60 PPG, Lamphun Warrior 1.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Trading Patterns
Kanchanaburi in-play and half-time data (5 games): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games; they fail to score in 60% of games.
Lamphun Warrior in-play and half-time data (5 games): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 40% of the time; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games; Over 3.5 in 60%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Kanchanaburi 40% and Lamphun Warrior 100% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kanchanaburi 20% | Lamphun Warrior 100%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kanchanaburi 1.28 xG and Lamphun Warrior 1.44 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kanchanaburi attack 0.888 / defence 1.115 | Lamphun Warrior attack 1.039 / defence 0.970. League average goals — home 1.484 / away 1.247. Data: 5 Kanchanaburi games / 35 Lamphun Warrior games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kanchanaburi 31% | Draw 31% | Lamphun Warrior 38%. Fair-value odds: Kanchanaburi 3.23 | Draw 3.23 | Lamphun Warrior 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.72. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.72 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Lamphun Warrior are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lamphun Warrior offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.72 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Kanchanaburi 40% | Lamphun Warrior 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kanchanaburi vs Lamphun Warrior | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Kanchanaburi Province Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Sep 2025, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kanchanaburi 31% | Draw 31% | Lamphun Warrior 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 58% | xG Kanchanaburi 1.28 / Lamphun Warrior 1.44 • Poisson strength factors: Kanchanaburi attack 0.888 / def 1.115 | Lamphun Warrior attack 1.039 / def 0.970 | league avg home 1.484 / away 1.247 • Poisson stance: Lamphun Warrior (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.28
Kanchanaburi xG
Expected Goals
1.44
Lamphun Warrior xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kanchanaburi vs Lamphun Warrior kick off?
Kanchanaburi vs Lamphun Warrior kicked off at 13:30 on Saturday 27 September 2025 at Kanchanaburi Province Stadium.
What was the final score in Kanchanaburi vs Lamphun Warrior?
Kanchanaburi 4 - 0 Lamphun Warrior.
Where is Kanchanaburi vs Lamphun Warrior being played?
The match is being played at Kanchanaburi Province Stadium.
What competition is Kanchanaburi vs Lamphun Warrior part of?
Kanchanaburi vs Lamphun Warrior is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Kanchanaburi vs Lamphun Warrior?
Our statistical model gives Kanchanaburi a 31% chance of winning, Lamphun Warrior a 38% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Lamphun Warrior the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kanchanaburi vs Lamphun Warrior?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Kanchanaburi and Lamphun Warrior will score (BTTS).
Will Kanchanaburi vs Lamphun Warrior have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kanchanaburi and Lamphun Warrior?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Kanchanaburi and Lamphun Warrior in?
Kanchanaburi (all comps): 0W-3D-2L in 5 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-D-L-D-L. Lamphun Warrior (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Kanchanaburi's attack at 0.89x the league average against Lamphun Warrior's defence at 0.97x — combine the two and it projects 1.28 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Lamphun Warrior's attack versus Kanchanaburi's defence, projects 1.44 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 5/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 0-0 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lamphun Warrior Win
31%
3.24
31%
3.26
38%
2.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.5%
Away win
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.28
Kanchanaburi xG
Total xG
2.72
1.44
Lamphun Warrior xG
3.24
31%
Home win
3.26
31%
Draw
2.60
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.36
Clean Sheet
24%
4.24
28%
3.59
Win to Nil
7%
13.73
11%
9.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 9.5 | 6.8 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 12.1 | 8.8 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 7.8 | 5.6 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.3 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kanchanaburi vs Lamphun Warrior?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Kanchanaburi and Lamphun Warrior expected to score?
The model projects 1.28 expected goals for Kanchanaburi and 1.44 for Lamphun Warrior, a combined total of 2.72.
How confident is the prediction model for Kanchanaburi vs Lamphun Warrior?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Kanchanaburi's recent record stands at 0W 3D 2L from 5 games, a 0.60 PPG return, with D-D-L-D-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Kanchanaburi, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Lamphun Warrior, meanwhile, have gone 1W 2D 2L across 5 games — 1.00 PPG, with L-L-D-W-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Lamphun Warrior, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Lamphun Warrior by 0.40 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Kanchanaburi heading into this one.
The Goals Picture
Kanchanaburi are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; Lamphun Warrior are on 1.80 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lamphun Warrior in 100%.
Last 5 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kanchanaburi
Early Season
Lamphun Warrior
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kanchanaburi and Lamphun Warrior in coming into this match?
Kanchanaburi have gone 0W 3D 2L in their last 5 games (0.60 PPG), while Lamphun Warrior have gone 1W 2D 2L in their last 5 (1.00 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Kanchanaburi and Lamphun Warrior runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 9 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Kanchanaburi
1
Draws
0
Lamphun Warrior
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kanchanaburi and Lamphun Warrior?
From 2 meetings on record, Kanchanaburi have won 1, Lamphun Warrior have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Kanchanaburi and Lamphun Warrior last play each other?
They last met on 9 February 2026, when Lamphun Warrior 1-1 Kanchanaburi.
Who has won more matches between Kanchanaburi and Lamphun Warrior?
Kanchanaburi have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Kanchanaburi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Lamphun Warrior are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 40% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Kanchanaburi at 40%, Lamphun Warrior at 100%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 20% for Kanchanaburi and 100% for Lamphun Warrior. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 20% and 60% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Kanchanaburi have failed to score in 60% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kanchanaburi home games / Lamphun Warrior away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kanchanaburi play Lamphun Warrior?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 40% of Kanchanaburi's games and 100% of Lamphun Warrior's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Kanchanaburi vs Lamphun Warrior usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 20% of Kanchanaburi's matches and 100% of Lamphun Warrior's.
Do Kanchanaburi and Lamphun Warrior tend to score early?
Kanchanaburi have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Lamphun Warrior in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Kanchanaburi run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Lamphun Warrior.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kanchanaburi beat Lamphun Warrior 4-0 at Kanchanaburi Province Stadium, Regular Season - 6, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kanchanaburi 1.28 xG and Lamphun Warrior 1.44 xG, a combined 2.72. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Kanchanaburi beat their projection by 2.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Lamphun Warrior landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kanchanaburi attack 0.89 / defence 1.11 against Lamphun Warrior attack 1.04 / defence 0.97, drawn from 5/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kanchanaburi 31% | Draw 31% | Lamphun Warrior 38%, with Lamphun Warrior to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Kanchanaburi win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kanchanaburi 20%, Lamphun Warrior 100%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 70%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kanchanaburi's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not.
Lamphun Warrior's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 100% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Lamphun Warrior arrived the stronger side — 1.00 PPG against 0.60. Form was overturned, with Kanchanaburi winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Kanchanaburi scored 4 against a 0.80 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.60 average — tighter than their form line. Lamphun Warrior managed 0 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.