Chonburi FC 0-2 Uthai Thani – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Chonburi FC at 60%, yet other data sources diverge — this Chonburi FC vs Uthai Thani fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Chonburi UTA Stadium plays host to Chonburi FC versus Uthai Thani in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off: Sunday 1 October 2023 at 13:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Chonburi FC have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Thai League 1 outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: L D D L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Chonburi FC have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Chonburi FC at Chonburi UTA Stadium this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Chonburi FC are significantly better at Chonburi UTA Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Uthai Thani (all games): 1W 0D 4L across 5 Thai League 1 outings this term — 0.60 points per game. Last five: L L L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 5 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Uthai Thani have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The points-per-game gap of 0.50 in Chonburi FC's favour (1.10 vs 0.60) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Trading & In-Play
Chonburi FC — key trading statistics (5 games): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games; Over 3.5 in 40%; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time; they fail to score in 40% of games.
Uthai Thani — key trading statistics (5 games): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games; they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Chonburi FC 40% versus Uthai Thani 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Chonburi FC 40% | Uthai Thani 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chonburi FC 1.70 xG and Uthai Thani 0.72 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chonburi FC attack 0.754 / defence 0.864 | Uthai Thani attack 0.749 / defence 1.273. League average goals — home 1.765 / away 1.109. Chonburi FC's attack strength of 0.754 is below the league average — the 1.70 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Uthai Thani bring a strong defensive rating of 1.273 — this is suppressing Chonburi FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 34 Chonburi FC games / 5 Uthai Thani games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Chonburi FC 60% | Draw 25% | Uthai Thani 15%. Fair-value odds: Chonburi FC 1.67 | Draw 4.00 | Uthai Thani 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Chonburi FC (60%) — a 45pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.41. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.41 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Chonburi FC are the pick at 60% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.41 combined xG gives a 43% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 42%. Form rates corroborate: Chonburi FC 50% | Uthai Thani 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chonburi FC vs Uthai Thani | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Chonburi UTA Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 1 Oct 2023, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chonburi FC 60% | Draw 25% | Uthai Thani 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 42% | xG Chonburi FC 1.70 / Uthai Thani 0.72 • Poisson strength factors: Chonburi FC attack 0.754 / def 0.864 | Uthai Thani attack 0.749 / def 1.273 | league avg home 1.765 / away 1.109 • Poisson stance: Chonburi FC (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.70
Chonburi FC xG
Expected Goals
0.72
Uthai Thani xG
42%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Chonburi FC vs Uthai Thani kick off?
Chonburi FC vs Uthai Thani kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 1 October 2023 at Chonburi UTA Stadium.
What was the final score in Chonburi FC vs Uthai Thani?
Chonburi FC 0 - 2 Uthai Thani.
Where is Chonburi FC vs Uthai Thani being played?
The match is being played at Chonburi UTA Stadium.
What competition is Chonburi FC vs Uthai Thani part of?
Chonburi FC vs Uthai Thani is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Chonburi FC vs Uthai Thani?
Our statistical model gives Chonburi FC a 60% chance of winning, Uthai Thani a 15% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Chonburi FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chonburi FC vs Uthai Thani?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Chonburi FC and Uthai Thani will score (BTTS).
Will Chonburi FC vs Uthai Thani have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Chonburi FC and Uthai Thani?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Chonburi FC and Uthai Thani in?
Chonburi FC (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-D-L-W. Uthai Thani (all comps): 1W-0D-4L in 5 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Chonburi FC's attack rating (0.75) and Uthai Thani's defence rating (1.27), the model arrives at 1.70 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Uthai Thani's attack (0.75x) against Chonburi FC's defence (0.86x) — and the away total comes out at 0.72.
These ratings are built from 34/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.8%. Close behind: 2-0 (12.9%), 1-1 (12.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Chonburi FC Win
60%
1.66
25%
4.02
15%
6.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.2%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.9%
Home win
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.70
Chonburi FC xG
Total xG
2.41
0.72
Uthai Thani xG
1.66
60%
Home win
4.02
25%
Draw
6.71
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.36
58%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
49%
2.05
18%
5.45
Win to Nil
29%
3.40
3%
36.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 6.4 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 15.2 | 10.9 | 3.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.9 | 9.2 | 3.3 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 7.3 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.1 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Chonburi FC vs Uthai Thani?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Chonburi FC and Uthai Thani expected to score?
The model projects 1.70 expected goals for Chonburi FC and 0.72 for Uthai Thani, a combined total of 2.41.
How confident is the prediction model for Chonburi FC vs Uthai Thani?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Chonburi FC come into this having played 5 games, going 1W 2D 2L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-D-L-W. It's still early in the season for Chonburi FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Uthai Thani sit at 0.60 PPG from 5 outings (1W 0D 4L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Uthai Thani, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Chonburi FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.40 PPG clear of Uthai Thani — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Attack vs Defence
Chonburi FC are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Uthai Thani are on 0.60 scored and 2.20 conceded.
Defensively: Chonburi FC have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 5 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chonburi FC
Early Season
Uthai Thani
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Chonburi FC and Uthai Thani in coming into this match?
Chonburi FC have gone 1W 2D 2L in their last 5 games (1.00 PPG), while Uthai Thani have gone 1W 0D 4L in their last 5 (0.60 PPG).
Have Chonburi FC or Uthai Thani been keeping clean sheets recently?
Chonburi FC have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Uthai Thani in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 13 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Chonburi FC have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Uthai Thani — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Chonburi FC
3
Draws
1
Uthai Thani
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Chonburi FC and Uthai Thani?
From 4 meetings on record, Chonburi FC have won 0, Uthai Thani have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Chonburi FC and Uthai Thani last play each other?
They last met on 13 February 2026, when Chonburi FC 1-1 Uthai Thani.
Who has won more matches between Chonburi FC and Uthai Thani?
Uthai Thani have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Chonburi FC see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Uthai Thani are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Chonburi FC 40%, Uthai Thani 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Chonburi FC) and 60% (Uthai Thani).
On the defensive side: Chonburi FC keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Chonburi FC have failed to score in 40% of games; Uthai Thani in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chonburi FC home games / Uthai Thani away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Chonburi FC play Uthai Thani?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Chonburi FC's recent matches and 40% of Uthai Thani's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Chonburi FC vs Uthai Thani usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Chonburi FC's recent games and 60% of Uthai Thani's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Chonburi FC and Uthai Thani tend to score early?
Chonburi FC have had a goal before half-time in 40% of their recent matches, Uthai Thani in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Uthai Thani cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Chonburi FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Uthai Thani beat Chonburi FC 0-2 at Chonburi UTA Stadium, Regular Season - 6, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Chonburi FC 1.70 xG and Uthai Thani 0.72 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Chonburi FC fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Uthai Thani outscored their 0.72 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chonburi FC attack 0.75 / defence 0.86 against Uthai Thani attack 0.75 / defence 1.27, drawn from 34/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Chonburi FC 60% | Draw 25% | Uthai Thani 15%, with Chonburi FC to win its most likely call at 60%. Instead the game produced a Uthai Thani win, an outcome the model had rated at just 15% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chonburi FC 40%, Uthai Thani 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Chonburi FC's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Uthai Thani's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Chonburi FC arrived the stronger side — 1.00 PPG against 0.60. Form was overturned, with Uthai Thani winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Chonburi FC managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Uthai Thani scored 2 against a 0.60 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.20 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.