Chonburi FC vs Rayong FC – Pre-Match Analysis

Poisson rates Chonburi FC at 58% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Chonburi FC vs Rayong FC encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Fixture Analysis

It is a Thai League 1 clash, Regular Season - 2 as Chonburi FC welcome Rayong FC to IPE Chonburi Campus Stadium. Kick-off is set for Sunday 13 September 2026 at 12:00 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Chonburi FC stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W L D D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Chonburi FC haven't played a Thai League 1 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

Chonburi FC's home record at IPE Chonburi Campus Stadium: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Thai League 1 appearances (2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Rayong FC — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Thai League 1 fixtures this season — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L D W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Rayong FC haven't played a Thai League 1 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

Rayong FC's form when playing away from home: 1W 2D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Chonburi FC carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.80 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.70 vs 0.90. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Chonburi FC register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Rayong FC in 80% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

Head to Head

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Chonburi FC have won 1, Rayong FC 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 5 Apr 2026, ended 4–1 with Chonburi FC winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading Patterns

Chonburi FC in-play and half-time data (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.

Rayong FC in-play and half-time data (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 27% of cases; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games).

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Chonburi FC 57% and Rayong FC 77% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Chonburi FC 47% | Rayong FC 53%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Chonburi FC 1.95 xG and Rayong FC 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chonburi FC attack 0.992 / defence 0.965 | Rayong FC attack 1.002 / defence 1.241. League average goals — home 1.584 / away 1.020. Rayong FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.241 — this is suppressing Chonburi FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 30 Chonburi FC games / 30 Rayong FC games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Chonburi FC 58% | Draw 25% | Rayong FC 17%. Fair-value odds: Chonburi FC 1.72 | Draw 4.00 | Rayong FC 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Chonburi FC (58%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.94. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.94 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Chonburi FC at 58% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

Poisson projects 2.94 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate: Chonburi FC 60% | Rayong FC 80% BTTS from recent games.

The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (30 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights