Chonburi FC 2-0 Lamphun Warrior – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Chonburi FC at 55%, yet other data sources diverge — this Chonburi FC vs Lamphun Warrior fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Lamphun Warrior make the trip to Chonburi UTA Stadium to face Chonburi FC in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 18. The match kicks off on Sunday 5 February 2023 at 11:00 UTC.
Current Form
Chonburi FC's overall Thai League 1 record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: W L W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Chonburi FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Chonburi FC's form when playing at home: 6W 1D 3L across 10 games at Chonburi UTA Stadium this term (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Lamphun Warrior have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Thai League 1 outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: D W W D D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Lamphun Warrior, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Lamphun Warrior have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.50 PPG for Chonburi FC against 1.20 for Lamphun Warrior. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Chonburi FC 1W, Lamphun Warrior 0W, 0D.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 4 Sep 2022, ended 2–0 with Chonburi FC winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Chonburi FC — key trading statistics (17 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in home games; they lead at the break 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
Lamphun Warrior — key trading statistics (17 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 22% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 22% of games (away games); they fail to score in 59% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Chonburi FC 41% versus Lamphun Warrior 35%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Chonburi FC 35% | Lamphun Warrior 24%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chonburi FC 1.68 xG and Lamphun Warrior 0.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chonburi FC attack 1.329 / defence 0.992 | Lamphun Warrior attack 0.705 / defence 0.939. League average goals — home 1.348 / away 1.246. Chonburi FC carry an above-average attack strength of 1.329 — their λ of 1.68 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 47 Chonburi FC games / 17 Lamphun Warrior games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Chonburi FC 55% | Draw 27% | Lamphun Warrior 18%. Fair-value odds: Chonburi FC 1.82 | Draw 3.70 | Lamphun Warrior 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Chonburi FC (55%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.55. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.55 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Chonburi FC are the pick at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.55 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 47% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Chonburi FC 50% | Lamphun Warrior 30% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chonburi FC vs Lamphun Warrior | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Chonburi UTA Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 5 Feb 2023, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chonburi FC 55% | Draw 27% | Lamphun Warrior 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 49% | xG Chonburi FC 1.68 / Lamphun Warrior 0.87 • Poisson strength factors: Chonburi FC attack 1.329 / def 0.992 | Lamphun Warrior attack 0.705 / def 0.939 | league avg home 1.348 / away 1.246 • Poisson stance: Chonburi FC (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.68
Chonburi FC xG
Expected Goals
0.87
Lamphun Warrior xG
49%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Chonburi FC vs Lamphun Warrior kick off?
Chonburi FC vs Lamphun Warrior kicked off at 11:00 on Sunday 5 February 2023 at Chonburi UTA Stadium.
What was the final score in Chonburi FC vs Lamphun Warrior?
Chonburi FC 2 - 0 Lamphun Warrior.
Where is Chonburi FC vs Lamphun Warrior being played?
The match is being played at Chonburi UTA Stadium.
What competition is Chonburi FC vs Lamphun Warrior part of?
Chonburi FC vs Lamphun Warrior is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Chonburi FC vs Lamphun Warrior?
Our statistical model gives Chonburi FC a 55% chance of winning, Lamphun Warrior a 18% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Chonburi FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chonburi FC vs Lamphun Warrior?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Chonburi FC and Lamphun Warrior will score (BTTS).
Will Chonburi FC vs Lamphun Warrior have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Chonburi FC and Lamphun Warrior?
Record (1 meetings): Chonburi FC 1W | Draws 0 | Lamphun Warrior 0W.
What form are Chonburi FC and Lamphun Warrior in?
Chonburi FC (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-W-W-L. Lamphun Warrior (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Chonburi FC's attack at 1.33x the league average against Lamphun Warrior's defence at 0.94x — combine the two and it projects 1.68 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Lamphun Warrior's attack (0.70x) against Chonburi FC's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 0.87.
These ratings are built from 47/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.6%), 2-0 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Chonburi FC Win
55%
1.81
27%
3.72
18%
5.56
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
2 – 0
11.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.68
Chonburi FC xG
Total xG
2.55
0.87
Lamphun Warrior xG
1.81
55%
Home win
3.72
27%
Draw
5.56
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.05
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
42%
2.39
19%
5.37
Win to Nil
23%
4.33
3%
29.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 6.8 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.1 | 11.4 | 5.0 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11.0 | 9.6 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 6.2 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.6 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Chonburi FC vs Lamphun Warrior?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Chonburi FC and Lamphun Warrior expected to score?
The model projects 1.68 expected goals for Chonburi FC and 0.87 for Lamphun Warrior, a combined total of 2.55.
How confident is the prediction model for Chonburi FC vs Lamphun Warrior?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Chonburi FC come into this having played 17 games, going 10W 3D 4L for 1.94 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-W-L. The sample for Chonburi FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Lamphun Warrior sit at 0.88 PPG from 17 outings (3W 6D 8L), a run that reads D-W-W-D-D across their last five. The sample for Lamphun Warrior is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Chonburi FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.06 PPG clear of Lamphun Warrior — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Chonburi FC's home form reads 6W 1D 2L across 9 games on their own ground, a 2.11 PPG return.
Away from home, Lamphun Warrior have taken 1.00 points per game from 9 outings (2W 3D 4L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Chonburi FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Chonburi FC are averaging 1.82 goals scored and 0.88 conceded per game recently; Lamphun Warrior are on 0.65 scored and 1.29 conceded.
Defensively: Chonburi FC have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 17 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chonburi FC
Blended
Lamphun Warrior
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Chonburi FC and Lamphun Warrior in coming into this match?
Chonburi FC have gone 10W 3D 4L in their last 17 games (1.94 PPG), while Lamphun Warrior have gone 3W 6D 8L in their last 17 (0.88 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Chonburi FC at home or Lamphun Warrior away?
Chonburi FC's home record (2.11 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Chonburi FC at home: 2.11 PPG; Lamphun Warrior away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Chonburi FC or Lamphun Warrior been keeping clean sheets recently?
Chonburi FC have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their recent games, Lamphun Warrior in 18%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 17 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Chonburi FC have gone 3W 0D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Lamphun Warrior — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Chonburi FC
1
Draws
1
Lamphun Warrior
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Chonburi FC and Lamphun Warrior?
From 6 meetings on record, Chonburi FC have won 4, Lamphun Warrior have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Chonburi FC and Lamphun Warrior last play each other?
They last met on 17 January 2026, when Chonburi FC 1-0 Lamphun Warrior.
Who has won more matches between Chonburi FC and Lamphun Warrior?
Chonburi FC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Chonburi FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time.
Lamphun Warrior tend to start slowly — only 22% of their games have a goal by half-time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Chonburi FC 44%, Lamphun Warrior 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 44% for Chonburi FC and 22% for Lamphun Warrior.
On the defensive side: Chonburi FC keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Lamphun Warrior in 56%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chonburi FC home games / Lamphun Warrior away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Chonburi FC play Lamphun Warrior?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Chonburi FC's recent matches and 33% of Lamphun Warrior's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Chonburi FC vs Lamphun Warrior usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Chonburi FC's recent games and 22% of Lamphun Warrior's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Chonburi FC and Lamphun Warrior tend to score early?
Chonburi FC have had a goal before half-time in 89% of their recent matches, Lamphun Warrior in 22% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Chonburi FC cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Lamphun Warrior.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Chonburi FC beat Lamphun Warrior 2-0 at Chonburi UTA Stadium, Regular Season - 18, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Chonburi FC 1.68 xG and Lamphun Warrior 0.87 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Lamphun Warrior landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chonburi FC attack 1.33 / defence 0.99 against Lamphun Warrior attack 0.70 / defence 0.94, drawn from 47/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Chonburi FC 55% | Draw 27% | Lamphun Warrior 18%, with Chonburi FC to win its most likely call at 55%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 29% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chonburi FC 35%, Lamphun Warrior 24%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 38%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Chonburi FC's trading profile (17 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and duly kept one.
Lamphun Warrior's trading profile (17 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 35% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 59% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Chonburi FC arrived the stronger side — 1.94 PPG against 0.88. Form held, and they took the win. Chonburi FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Lamphun Warrior (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.