Chiangrai United vs Uthai Thani – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours Chiangrai United (39%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Chiangrai United face Uthai Thani.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Chiangrai United host Uthai Thani at Leo Chiangrai Stadium in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 21 March 2027 at 11:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Chiangrai United — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Thai League 1 outings this season, averaging 1.80 points per game. Last five: W W D W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Chiangrai United have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Chiangrai United have posted 4W 3D 3L at Leo Chiangrai Stadium — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Leo Chiangrai Stadium.
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Uthai Thani have recorded 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L D L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Uthai Thani have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Thai League 1 this season, Uthai Thani have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
On current form, Chiangrai United have the edge — a 0.90 PPG advantage (1.80 vs 0.90) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 6 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for Chiangrai United, 1 for Uthai Thani and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 10 May 2026, ended 1–0 with Chiangrai United winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Chiangrai United in-play tendencies (31 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games).
Uthai Thani in-play tendencies (31 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Chiangrai United 61% and Uthai Thani 61% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Chiangrai United 32% | Uthai Thani 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chiangrai United 1.26 xG and Uthai Thani 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chiangrai United attack 0.912 / defence 0.809 | Uthai Thani attack 1.252 / defence 0.964. League average goals — home 1.429 / away 1.091. Uthai Thani have an above-average attack strength of 1.252 — the away xG of 1.10 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 31 Chiangrai United games / 31 Uthai Thani games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Chiangrai United 39% | Draw 29% | Uthai Thani 32%. Fair-value odds: Chiangrai United 2.56 | Draw 3.45 | Uthai Thani 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.36. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.36 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Chiangrai United as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Chiangrai United offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.36 combined xG gives a 42% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Chiangrai United 40% | Uthai Thani 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (31 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chiangrai United vs Uthai Thani | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Leo Chiangrai Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 21 Mar 2027, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chiangrai United 39% | Draw 29% | Uthai Thani 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 49% | xG Chiangrai United 1.26 / Uthai Thani 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Chiangrai United attack 0.912 / def 0.809 | Uthai Thani attack 1.252 / def 0.964 | league avg home 1.429 / away 1.091 • Poisson stance: Chiangrai United (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
Chiangrai United xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Uthai Thani xG
49%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Chiangrai United vs Uthai Thani kick off?
Chiangrai United vs Uthai Thani is scheduled to kick off at 11:00 on Sunday 21 March 2027 at Leo Chiangrai Stadium.
Where is Chiangrai United vs Uthai Thani being played?
The match is being played at Leo Chiangrai Stadium.
What competition is Chiangrai United vs Uthai Thani part of?
Chiangrai United vs Uthai Thani is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Chiangrai United vs Uthai Thani?
Our statistical model gives Chiangrai United a 39% chance of winning, Uthai Thani a 32% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Chiangrai United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chiangrai United vs Uthai Thani?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Chiangrai United and Uthai Thani will score (BTTS).
Will Chiangrai United vs Uthai Thani have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Chiangrai United and Uthai Thani?
Record (6 meetings): Chiangrai United 3W | Draws 2 | Uthai Thani 1W.
What form are Chiangrai United and Uthai Thani in?
Chiangrai United (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-D-W-W. Uthai Thani (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Chiangrai United's attack at 0.91x the league average against Uthai Thani's defence at 0.96x — combine the two and it projects 1.26 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Uthai Thani's attack versus Chiangrai United's defence, projects 1.10 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (31/31 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.1%), 1-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Chiangrai United Win
39%
2.56
29%
3.43
32%
3.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.8%
Home win
0 – 1
10.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
Chiangrai United xG
Total xG
2.36
1.10
Uthai Thani xG
2.56
39%
Home win
3.43
29%
Draw
3.15
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.06
51%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
33%
3.02
28%
3.51
Win to Nil
13%
7.72
9%
11.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.4 | 10.4 | 5.8 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.8 | 13.1 | 7.2 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 8.2 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.4 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Chiangrai United vs Uthai Thani?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Chiangrai United and Uthai Thani expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Chiangrai United and 1.10 for Uthai Thani, a combined total of 2.36.
How confident is the prediction model for Chiangrai United vs Uthai Thani?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Chiangrai United's recent record stands at 10W 13D 8L from 31 games, a 1.39 PPG return, with W-W-D-W-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Chiangrai United, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Uthai Thani, meanwhile, have gone 8W 10D 13L across 31 games — 1.10 PPG, with L-D-L-L-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Uthai Thani, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Chiangrai United on 1.39 PPG, Uthai Thani on 1.10. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Chiangrai United have managed 8W 3D 5L from 16 games — 1.69 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Uthai Thani's away record stands at 3W 5D 8L across 16 trips, a 0.88 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Chiangrai United come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Chiangrai United are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; Uthai Thani are on 1.39 scored and 1.45 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Chiangrai United have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games; Uthai Thani in 61%.
Last 31 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chiangrai United
Early Season
Uthai Thani
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Chiangrai United and Uthai Thani in coming into this match?
Chiangrai United have gone 10W 13D 8L in their last 31 games (1.39 PPG), while Uthai Thani have gone 8W 10D 13L in their last 31 (1.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Chiangrai United at home or Uthai Thani away?
Chiangrai United's home record (1.69 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Chiangrai United at home: 1.69 PPG; Uthai Thani away: 0.88 PPG.
Have Chiangrai United or Uthai Thani been keeping clean sheets recently?
Chiangrai United have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Uthai Thani in 16%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Chiangrai United and Uthai Thani runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 10 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 Aug 2023, when Chiangrai United won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Chiangrai United's record when hosting Uthai Thani specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Chiangrai United
2
Draws
1
Uthai Thani
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Chiangrai United and Uthai Thani?
From 6 meetings on record, Chiangrai United have won 3, Uthai Thani have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Chiangrai United and Uthai Thani last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when Chiangrai United 1-0 Uthai Thani.
Who has won more matches between Chiangrai United and Uthai Thani?
Chiangrai United have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Chiangrai United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Uthai Thani are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Chiangrai United 38%, Uthai Thani 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 25% (Chiangrai United) and 50% (Uthai Thani).
On the defensive side: Chiangrai United keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Uthai Thani in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chiangrai United home games / Uthai Thani away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Chiangrai United play Uthai Thani?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Chiangrai United's recent matches and 62% of Uthai Thani's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Chiangrai United vs Uthai Thani usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Chiangrai United's recent games and 50% of Uthai Thani's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Chiangrai United and Uthai Thani tend to score early?
Chiangrai United have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Uthai Thani in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.