Chiangrai United vs Rasi Salai United – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Chiangrai United at 55% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Chiangrai United vs Rasi Salai United encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Thai League 1 clash, Regular Season - 13 as Chiangrai United welcome Rasi Salai United to Leo Chiangrai Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 19 December 2026 at 11:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Chiangrai United — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Thai League 1 outings this season, averaging 1.80 points per game. Last five: W W D W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Chiangrai United have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Chiangrai United have posted 4W 3D 3L at Leo Chiangrai Stadium — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Leo Chiangrai Stadium.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Rasi Salai United stand at 0W 0D 1L from 1 Thai League 1 matches — 0.00 PPG. Last five: L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Rasi Salai United have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Chiangrai United carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.80 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.80 vs 0.00. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chiangrai United 1.50 xG and Rasi Salai United 0.75 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chiangrai United attack 0.911 / defence 0.808 | Rasi Salai United attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.430 / away 1.091. Data: 31 Chiangrai United games / 1 Rasi Salai United games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Chiangrai United 55% | Draw 27% | Rasi Salai United 18%. Fair-value odds: Chiangrai United 1.82 | Draw 3.70 | Rasi Salai United 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Chiangrai United (55%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.25. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.25 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Chiangrai United as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.25 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 39% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chiangrai United vs Rasi Salai United | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Leo Chiangrai Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Dec 2026, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chiangrai United 55% | Draw 27% | Rasi Salai United 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 42% | xG Chiangrai United 1.50 / Rasi Salai United 0.75 • Poisson strength factors: Chiangrai United attack 0.911 / def 0.808 | Rasi Salai United attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.430 / away 1.091 • Poisson stance: Chiangrai United (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Chiangrai United xG
Expected Goals
0.75
Rasi Salai United xG
42%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Chiangrai United vs Rasi Salai United kick off?
Chiangrai United vs Rasi Salai United is scheduled to kick off at 11:30 on Saturday 19 December 2026 at Leo Chiangrai Stadium.
Where is Chiangrai United vs Rasi Salai United being played?
The match is being played at Leo Chiangrai Stadium.
What competition is Chiangrai United vs Rasi Salai United part of?
Chiangrai United vs Rasi Salai United is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Chiangrai United vs Rasi Salai United?
Our statistical model gives Chiangrai United a 55% chance of winning, Rasi Salai United a 18% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Chiangrai United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chiangrai United vs Rasi Salai United?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Chiangrai United and Rasi Salai United will score (BTTS).
Will Chiangrai United vs Rasi Salai United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Chiangrai United and Rasi Salai United?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Chiangrai United and Rasi Salai United in?
Chiangrai United (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-D-W-W. Rasi Salai United (all comps): 0W-0D-1L in 1 | 0.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.00 | L5 L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Chiangrai United's attack rating (0.91) and Rasi Salai United's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.50 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Rasi Salai United's attack versus Chiangrai United's defence, projects 0.75 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (31/1 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.3%. Close behind: 1-1 (13.4%), 0-0 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Chiangrai United Win
55%
1.83
27%
3.65
18%
5.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
2 – 0
11.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Chiangrai United xG
Total xG
2.25
0.75
Rasi Salai United xG
1.83
55%
Home win
3.65
27%
Draw
5.53
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.41
58%
BTTS No
1.71
Clean Sheet
47%
2.11
22%
4.47
Win to Nil
26%
3.88
4%
24.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.6 | 7.9 | 3.0 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 15.8 | 11.9 | 4.4 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.9 | 8.9 | 3.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.9 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.2 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Chiangrai United vs Rasi Salai United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Chiangrai United and Rasi Salai United expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Chiangrai United and 0.75 for Rasi Salai United, a combined total of 2.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Chiangrai United vs Rasi Salai United?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Chiangrai United come into this having played 1 games, going 1W 0D 0L for 3.00 points per game. Their last five reads W. It's still early in the season for Chiangrai United, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Rasi Salai United sit at 0.00 PPG from 1 outings (0W 0D 1L), a run that reads L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Rasi Salai United, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Chiangrai United carry the stronger recent form of the two, 3.00 PPG clear of Rasi Salai United — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Goals in Recent Form
Chiangrai United are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.00 conceded per game recently; Rasi Salai United are on 1.00 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Chiangrai United have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games; Rasi Salai United in 100%.
Defensively: Chiangrai United have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 1 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chiangrai United
Early Season
Rasi Salai United
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Chiangrai United and Rasi Salai United in coming into this match?
Chiangrai United have gone 1W 0D 0L in their last 1 games (3.00 PPG), while Rasi Salai United have gone 0W 0D 1L in their last 1 (0.00 PPG).
Have Chiangrai United or Rasi Salai United been keeping clean sheets recently?
Chiangrai United have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their recent games, Rasi Salai United in 0%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chiangrai United home games / Rasi Salai United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Chiangrai United play Rasi Salai United?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Chiangrai United's recent matches and 100% of Rasi Salai United's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Chiangrai United vs Rasi Salai United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Chiangrai United's recent games and 100% of Rasi Salai United's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Chiangrai United and Rasi Salai United tend to score early?
Chiangrai United have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Rasi Salai United in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.