Chiangmai United 0-1 Chiangrai United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Chiangrai United at 67% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Chiangmai United vs Chiangrai United encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Chiangmai United and Chiangrai United meet at 700th Anniversary Stadium in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 14. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 21 November 2021 at 11:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Chiangmai United have collected 0.50 PPG across 10 Thai League 1 outings this season: 1W 2D 7L. Last five: D L L L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. This season is still relatively young for Chiangmai United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Chiangmai United's home record at 700th Anniversary Stadium: 0W 1D 5L from 6 Thai League 1 appearances (0.17 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 1.83 conceded per game.
Chiangrai United's overall Thai League 1 record this term: 5W 0D 5L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: W L L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Chiangrai United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Thai League 1 this season, Chiangrai United have posted 4W 0D 1L from 5 away outings — 2.40 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 2 clean sheets from 5 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 2.40 exceeds their overall 1.50 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Chiangrai United arrive in superior form — a 1.00 PPG advantage (1.50 vs 0.50) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Trading
Chiangmai United half-time and goal-timing data (13 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 46% of games.
Chiangrai United half-time and goal-timing data (13 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Chiangmai United 54% versus Chiangrai United 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Chiangmai United 46% | Chiangrai United 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chiangmai United 0.68 xG and Chiangrai United 1.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chiangmai United attack 0.589 / defence 1.466 | Chiangrai United attack 1.144 / defence 1.119. League average goals — home 1.037 / away 1.153. Chiangmai United's attack strength of 0.589 is below the league average — the 0.68 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 13 Chiangmai United games / 13 Chiangrai United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Chiangmai United 12% | Draw 21% | Chiangrai United 67%. Fair-value odds: Chiangmai United 8.33 | Draw 4.76 | Chiangrai United 1.49. The model has a clear lean to Chiangrai United (67%) — a 55pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.62. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.62 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Chiangrai United at 67% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.62 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 42%. Form rates are neutral: Chiangmai United 50% | Chiangrai United 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chiangmai United vs Chiangrai United | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: 700th Anniversary Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 21 Nov 2021, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chiangmai United 12% | Draw 21% | Chiangrai United 67% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 42% | xG Chiangmai United 0.68 / Chiangrai United 1.93 • Poisson strength factors: Chiangmai United attack 0.589 / def 1.466 | Chiangrai United attack 1.144 / def 1.119 | league avg home 1.037 / away 1.153 • Poisson stance: Chiangrai United (67%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.68
Chiangmai United xG
Expected Goals
1.93
Chiangrai United xG
42%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Chiangmai United vs Chiangrai United kick off?
Chiangmai United vs Chiangrai United kicked off at 11:00 on Sunday 21 November 2021 at 700th Anniversary Stadium.
What was the final score in Chiangmai United vs Chiangrai United?
Chiangmai United 0 - 1 Chiangrai United.
Where is Chiangmai United vs Chiangrai United being played?
The match is being played at 700th Anniversary Stadium.
What competition is Chiangmai United vs Chiangrai United part of?
Chiangmai United vs Chiangrai United is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Chiangmai United vs Chiangrai United?
Our statistical model gives Chiangmai United a 12% chance of winning, Chiangrai United a 67% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Chiangrai United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chiangmai United vs Chiangrai United?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Chiangmai United and Chiangrai United will score (BTTS).
Will Chiangmai United vs Chiangrai United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Chiangmai United and Chiangrai United?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Chiangmai United and Chiangrai United in?
Chiangmai United (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-L-L-L-L. Chiangrai United (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Chiangmai United's attack rating (0.59) and Chiangrai United's defence rating (1.12), the model arrives at 0.68 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Chiangrai United's attack (1.14x) against Chiangmai United's defence (1.47x) — and the away total comes out at 1.93.
These ratings are built from 13/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-2 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.6%. Close behind: 0-1 (12.9%), 1-1 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Chiangrai United Win
12%
8.10
21%
4.84
67%
1.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.1%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
13.6%
Away win
1 – 1
9.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.68
Chiangmai United xG
Total xG
2.62
1.93
Chiangrai United xG
8.10
12%
Home win
4.84
21%
Draw
1.49
67%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.36
58%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
14%
6.91
50%
1.98
Win to Nil
2%
56.00
34%
2.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 14.1 | 13.6 | 8.8 | 4.2 | 1.6 |
| 1 | 5.0 | 9.7 | 9.3 | 6.0 | 2.9 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 1.7 | 3.3 | 3.2 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Chiangmai United vs Chiangrai United?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Chiangmai United and Chiangrai United expected to score?
The model projects 0.68 expected goals for Chiangmai United and 1.93 for Chiangrai United, a combined total of 2.62.
How confident is the prediction model for Chiangmai United vs Chiangrai United?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 67%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Chiangmai United's recent record stands at 1W 3D 9L from 13 games, a 0.46 PPG return, with D-L-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Chiangmai United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Chiangrai United, meanwhile, have gone 6W 2D 5L across 13 games — 1.54 PPG, with W-L-L-W-L in their last five. The sample for Chiangrai United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Chiangrai United by 1.08 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Chiangmai United heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Chiangmai United have managed 0W 1D 4L from 5 games — 0.20 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Chiangrai United's away record stands at 4W 0D 1L across 5 trips, a 2.40 PPG haul. That's actually stronger than their 1.54 PPG overall record — Chiangrai United travel well.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Chiangrai United come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Chiangmai United are averaging 0.77 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Chiangrai United are on 1.31 scored and 1.62 conceded.
Last 13 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chiangmai United
Blended
Chiangrai United
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Chiangmai United and Chiangrai United in coming into this match?
Chiangmai United have gone 1W 3D 9L in their last 13 games (0.46 PPG), while Chiangrai United have gone 6W 2D 5L in their last 13 (1.54 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Chiangmai United at home or Chiangrai United away?
Chiangrai United's away record (2.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Chiangmai United at home: 0.20 PPG; Chiangrai United away: 2.40 PPG.
Have Chiangmai United or Chiangrai United been keeping clean sheets recently?
Chiangmai United have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Chiangrai United in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 April 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Chiangmai United
1
Draws
1
Chiangrai United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Chiangmai United and Chiangrai United?
From 2 meetings on record, Chiangmai United have won 0, Chiangrai United have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Chiangmai United and Chiangrai United last play each other?
They last met on 2 April 2022, when Chiangrai United 0-0 Chiangmai United.
Who has won more matches between Chiangmai United and Chiangrai United?
Chiangrai United have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Chiangmai United see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches.
Chiangrai United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Chiangmai United 40%, Chiangrai United 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 20% (Chiangmai United) and 60% (Chiangrai United).
On the defensive side: Chiangrai United in 40%; Chiangmai United have failed to score in 60% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chiangmai United home games / Chiangrai United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Chiangmai United play Chiangrai United?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Chiangmai United's recent matches and 60% of Chiangrai United's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Chiangmai United vs Chiangrai United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 20% of Chiangmai United's recent games and 60% of Chiangrai United's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Chiangmai United and Chiangrai United tend to score early?
Chiangmai United have had a goal before half-time in 40% of their recent matches, Chiangrai United in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Chiangrai United edge out Chiangmai United 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Chiangrai United beat Chiangmai United 0-1 at 700th Anniversary Stadium, Regular Season - 14, in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Chiangmai United 0.68 xG and Chiangrai United 1.93 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Chiangrai United landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chiangmai United attack 0.59 / defence 1.47 against Chiangrai United attack 1.14 / defence 1.12, drawn from 13/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Chiangmai United 12% | Draw 21% | Chiangrai United 67%, with Chiangrai United to win its most likely call at 67%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chiangmai United 46%, Chiangrai United 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Chiangmai United's trading profile (13 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 46% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Chiangrai United's trading profile (13 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Chiangrai United arrived the stronger side — 1.54 PPG against 0.46. That form edge translated into the three points. Chiangmai United (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line. Chiangrai United (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.20 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.