Buriram United 4-0 Chiangmai United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Buriram United at 42% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Buriram United vs Chiangmai United encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Thai League 1 clash, Regular Season - 3 as Buriram United welcome Chiangmai United to Chang Arena. Kick-off is set for Saturday 18 September 2021 at 12:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Buriram United stand at 1W 1D 0L from 2 Thai League 1 matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.50 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 2 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Buriram United have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Chiangmai United have recorded 0W 1D 1L from 2 outings — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 2.00. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Chiangmai United have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Buriram United are in the better shape of the two on current Thai League 1 data — 1.50 PPG ahead (2.00 vs 0.50). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Buriram United 1.53 xG and Chiangmai United 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Buriram United attack 0.956 / defence 0.950 | Chiangmai United attack 0.943 / defence 1.217. League average goals — home 1.312 / away 1.282. Chiangmai United bring a strong defensive rating of 1.217 — this is suppressing Buriram United's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 2 Buriram United games / 2 Chiangmai United games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Buriram United 42% | Draw 33% | Chiangmai United 25%. Fair-value odds: Buriram United 2.38 | Draw 3.03 | Chiangmai United 4.00. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.67. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.67 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Buriram United are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Buriram United offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.67 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 50% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Buriram United vs Chiangmai United | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Chang Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Sep 2021, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Buriram United 42% | Draw 33% | Chiangmai United 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 57% | xG Buriram United 1.53 / Chiangmai United 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Buriram United attack 0.956 / def 0.950 | Chiangmai United attack 0.943 / def 1.217 | league avg home 1.312 / away 1.282 • Poisson stance: Buriram United (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.53
Buriram United xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Chiangmai United xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Buriram United vs Chiangmai United kick off?
Buriram United vs Chiangmai United kicked off at 12:30 on Saturday 18 September 2021 at Chang Arena.
What was the final score in Buriram United vs Chiangmai United?
Buriram United 4 - 0 Chiangmai United.
Where is Buriram United vs Chiangmai United being played?
The match is being played at Chang Arena.
What competition is Buriram United vs Chiangmai United part of?
Buriram United vs Chiangmai United is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Buriram United vs Chiangmai United?
Our statistical model gives Buriram United a 42% chance of winning, Chiangmai United a 25% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Buriram United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Buriram United vs Chiangmai United?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Buriram United and Chiangmai United will score (BTTS).
Will Buriram United vs Chiangmai United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Buriram United and Chiangmai United?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Buriram United and Chiangmai United in?
Buriram United (all comps): 1W-1D-0L in 2 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.50 | L5 D-W. Chiangmai United (all comps): 0W-1D-1L in 2 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Buriram United's attack rating (0.96) and Chiangmai United's defence rating (1.22), the model arrives at 1.53 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Chiangmai United's attack versus Buriram United's defence, projects 1.15 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (2/2 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-0 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Buriram United Win
42%
2.36
33%
3.06
25%
4.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.53
Buriram United xG
Total xG
2.67
1.15
Chiangmai United xG
2.36
42%
Home win
3.06
33%
Draw
4.01
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.33
Clean Sheet
32%
3.15
22%
4.60
Win to Nil
13%
7.44
5%
18.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 7.9 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 12.1 | 6.9 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 9.2 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 4.7 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Buriram United vs Chiangmai United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Buriram United and Chiangmai United expected to score?
The model projects 1.53 expected goals for Buriram United and 1.15 for Chiangmai United, a combined total of 2.67.
How confident is the prediction model for Buriram United vs Chiangmai United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Buriram United's recent record stands at 1W 1D 0L from 2 games, a 2.00 PPG return, with D-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Buriram United, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Chiangmai United, meanwhile, have gone 0W 1D 1L across 2 games — 0.50 PPG, with L-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Chiangmai United, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Buriram United by 1.50 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Chiangmai United heading into this one.
Goals in Recent Form
Buriram United are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game recently; Chiangmai United are on 1.50 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Chiangmai United in 100%.
Defensively: Buriram United have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 2 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Buriram United
Early Season
Chiangmai United
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Buriram United and Chiangmai United in coming into this match?
Buriram United have gone 1W 1D 0L in their last 2 games (2.00 PPG), while Chiangmai United have gone 0W 1D 1L in their last 2 (0.50 PPG).
Have Buriram United or Chiangmai United been keeping clean sheets recently?
Buriram United have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Chiangmai United in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 January 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Buriram United
0
Draws
0
Chiangmai United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Buriram United and Chiangmai United?
From 2 meetings on record, Buriram United have won 2, Chiangmai United have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Buriram United and Chiangmai United last play each other?
They last met on 16 January 2022, when Chiangmai United 1-4 Buriram United.
Who has won more matches between Buriram United and Chiangmai United?
Buriram United have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Buriram United home games / Chiangmai United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Buriram United play Chiangmai United?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Buriram United's games and 100% of Chiangmai United's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Buriram United vs Chiangmai United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Buriram United's matches and 100% of Chiangmai United's.
Do Buriram United and Chiangmai United tend to score early?
Buriram United have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Chiangmai United in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Buriram United run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Chiangmai United.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Buriram United beat Chiangmai United 4-0 at Chang Arena, Regular Season - 3, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Buriram United 1.53 xG and Chiangmai United 1.15 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Buriram United beat their projection by 2.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Chiangmai United landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Buriram United attack 0.96 / defence 0.95 against Chiangmai United attack 0.94 / defence 1.22, drawn from 2/2 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Buriram United 42% | Draw 33% | Chiangmai United 25%, with Buriram United to win its most likely call at 42%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 75% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Buriram United 50%, Chiangmai United 100%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 75%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Buriram United arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 0.50. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Buriram United scored 4 against a 1.50 average — above their attacking norm. Chiangmai United managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.