Ayutthaya FC vs Pattani – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ayutthaya FC at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ayutthaya FC vs Pattani fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Thai League 1 clash, Regular Season - 8 as Ayutthaya FC welcome Pattani to Ayutthaya Province Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 7 November 2026 at 11:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Ayutthaya FC have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: L D L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Ayutthaya FC have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Ayutthaya FC at Ayutthaya Province Stadium this season: 2W 0D 8L from 10 home games — 0.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.60 lags behind their overall 1.30 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Ayutthaya Province Stadium this season.
Pattani — All Games: 2W 1D 4L from 7 Thai League 1 fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.71 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 7 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Pattani have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Pattani away from home this season: 1W 0D 2L from 3 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.67 goals scored and 2.33 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.30 PPG (Ayutthaya FC) versus 1.00 (Pattani). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Trading Patterns
Ayutthaya FC in-play and half-time data (7 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 43% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games.
Pattani in-play and half-time data (7 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games; they fail to score in 43% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ayutthaya FC 57% versus Pattani 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ayutthaya FC 57% | Pattani 71%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ayutthaya FC 1.62 xG and Pattani 1.42 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ayutthaya FC attack 0.860 / defence 1.058 | Pattani attack 0.920 / defence 1.308. League average goals — home 1.445 / away 1.456. Pattani bring a strong defensive rating of 1.308 — this is suppressing Ayutthaya FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 37 Ayutthaya FC games / 7 Pattani games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ayutthaya FC 42% | Draw 26% | Pattani 33%. Fair-value odds: Ayutthaya FC 2.38 | Draw 3.85 | Pattani 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.04. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.04 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.62 / 1.42) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Ayutthaya FC as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ayutthaya FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.04 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Ayutthaya FC 40% | Pattani 100% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ayutthaya FC vs Pattani | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Ayutthaya Province Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 7 Nov 2026, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ayutthaya FC 42% | Draw 26% | Pattani 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 62% | xG Ayutthaya FC 1.62 / Pattani 1.42 • Poisson strength factors: Ayutthaya FC attack 0.860 / def 1.058 | Pattani attack 0.920 / def 1.308 | league avg home 1.445 / away 1.456 • Poisson stance: Ayutthaya FC (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.62
Ayutthaya FC xG
Expected Goals
1.42
Pattani xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ayutthaya FC vs Pattani kick off?
Ayutthaya FC vs Pattani is scheduled to kick off at 11:00 on Saturday 7 November 2026 at Ayutthaya Province Stadium.
Where is Ayutthaya FC vs Pattani being played?
The match is being played at Ayutthaya Province Stadium.
What competition is Ayutthaya FC vs Pattani part of?
Ayutthaya FC vs Pattani is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Ayutthaya FC vs Pattani?
Our statistical model gives Ayutthaya FC a 42% chance of winning, Pattani a 33% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Ayutthaya FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ayutthaya FC vs Pattani?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Ayutthaya FC and Pattani will score (BTTS).
Will Ayutthaya FC vs Pattani have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ayutthaya FC and Pattani?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Ayutthaya FC and Pattani in?
Ayutthaya FC (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-L-W-W. Pattani (all comps): 2W-1D-4L in 7 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.71 | L5 L-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Ayutthaya FC's attack at 0.86x the league average against Pattani's defence at 1.31x — combine the two and it projects 1.62 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Pattani's attack versus Ayutthaya FC's defence, projects 1.42 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 37/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 1-2 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Ayutthaya FC Win
42%
2.40
26%
3.89
33%
3.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
1 – 2
7.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.62
Ayutthaya FC xG
Total xG
3.04
1.42
Pattani xG
2.40
42%
Home win
3.89
26%
Draw
3.06
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.61
Clean Sheet
24%
4.13
20%
5.07
Win to Nil
10%
9.93
6%
15.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 6.8 | 4.8 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 11.0 | 7.8 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 8.9 | 6.3 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 4.8 | 3.4 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 2.0 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ayutthaya FC vs Pattani?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Ayutthaya FC and Pattani expected to score?
The model projects 1.62 expected goals for Ayutthaya FC and 1.42 for Pattani, a combined total of 3.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Ayutthaya FC vs Pattani?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Ayutthaya FC's recent record stands at 4W 1D 2L from 7 games, a 1.86 PPG return, with L-D-L-W-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Ayutthaya FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Pattani, meanwhile, have gone 2W 1D 4L across 7 games — 1.00 PPG, with L-L-L-L-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Pattani, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Ayutthaya FC by 0.86 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Pattani heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Ayutthaya FC have managed 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters. That actually lags their 1.86 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
Pattani's away record stands at 1W 0D 2L across 3 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Ayutthaya FC are averaging 1.71 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Pattani are on 1.00 scored and 1.71 conceded.
Last 7 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ayutthaya FC
Early Season
Pattani
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ayutthaya FC and Pattani in coming into this match?
Ayutthaya FC have gone 4W 1D 2L in their last 7 games (1.86 PPG), while Pattani have gone 2W 1D 4L in their last 7 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ayutthaya FC at home or Pattani away?
Ayutthaya FC's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ayutthaya FC at home: 1.00 PPG; Pattani away: 1.00 PPG.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Ayutthaya FC see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches.
Pattani are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Ayutthaya FC at 67%, Pattani at 100%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Ayutthaya FC and 100% for Pattani. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 0% and 67% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Ayutthaya FC have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ayutthaya FC home games / Pattani away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ayutthaya FC play Pattani?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Ayutthaya FC's games and 100% of Pattani's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Ayutthaya FC vs Pattani usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Ayutthaya FC's matches and 100% of Pattani's.
Do Ayutthaya FC and Pattani tend to score early?
Ayutthaya FC have had a goal before half-time in 33% of their recent matches, Pattani in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.