Yverdon Sport 2-1 Servette FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Servette FC at 45% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Yverdon Sport vs Servette FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Yverdon Sport host Servette FC at Stade Municipal in Super League, Regular Season - 23. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 11 February 2024 at 15:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League games this season, Yverdon Sport have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: D W L L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Yverdon Sport, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Yverdon Sport's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 games at Stade Municipal this term (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Yverdon Sport are significantly better at Stade Municipal than their overall form suggests.
Servette FC — All Games: 6W 4D 0L from 10 Super League fixtures this season — 2.20 PPG. Last five: D D W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Servette FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Servette FC's form when playing away from home: 4W 4D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.60 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Servette FC's 2.20 PPG return is 1.10 points per game ahead of Yverdon Sport's 1.10 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Yverdon Sport, 1 for Servette FC and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 27 Jan 2024, ended 0–1 with Servette FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Yverdon Sport trading profile (22 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 91% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 82% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Servette FC trading profile (22 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Yverdon Sport 68% and Servette FC 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Yverdon Sport 68% | Servette FC 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Yverdon Sport 1.35 xG and Servette FC 1.67 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Yverdon Sport attack 1.045 / defence 1.156 | Servette FC attack 1.138 / defence 0.844. League average goals — home 1.527 / away 1.271. Data: 22 Yverdon Sport games / 58 Servette FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Yverdon Sport 31% | Draw 24% | Servette FC 45%. Fair-value odds: Yverdon Sport 3.23 | Draw 4.17 | Servette FC 2.22. Servette FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.02. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.02 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.35 / 1.67) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Servette FC as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Servette FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.02 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Yverdon Sport 60% | Servette FC 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Yverdon Sport vs Servette FC | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Stade Municipal • Kick-off: Sunday 11 Feb 2024, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Yverdon Sport 31% | Draw 24% | Servette FC 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 60% | xG Yverdon Sport 1.35 / Servette FC 1.67 • Poisson strength factors: Yverdon Sport attack 1.045 / def 1.156 | Servette FC attack 1.138 / def 0.844 | league avg home 1.527 / away 1.271 • Poisson stance: Servette FC (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.35
Yverdon Sport xG
Expected Goals
1.67
Servette FC xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Yverdon Sport vs Servette FC kick off?
Yverdon Sport vs Servette FC kicked off at 15:30 on Sunday 11 February 2024 at Stade Municipal.
What was the final score in Yverdon Sport vs Servette FC?
Yverdon Sport 2 - 1 Servette FC.
Where is Yverdon Sport vs Servette FC being played?
The match is being played at Stade Municipal.
What competition is Yverdon Sport vs Servette FC part of?
Yverdon Sport vs Servette FC is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Super League (Switzerland).
Who is favourite to win Yverdon Sport vs Servette FC?
Our statistical model gives Yverdon Sport a 31% chance of winning, Servette FC a 45% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Servette FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Yverdon Sport vs Servette FC?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Yverdon Sport and Servette FC will score (BTTS).
Will Yverdon Sport vs Servette FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Yverdon Sport and Servette FC?
Record (2 meetings): Yverdon Sport 1W | Draws 0 | Servette FC 1W.
What form are Yverdon Sport and Servette FC in?
Yverdon Sport (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.20 | L5 D-W-L-L-W. Servette FC (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Yverdon Sport's attacking strength (1.04x league average) is weighed against Servette FC's defensive record (0.84x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.35. The same calculation in reverse, Servette FC's attack versus Yverdon Sport's defence, projects 1.67 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 22/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.4%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.2%), 2-1 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Servette FC Win
31%
3.23
24%
4.19
45%
2.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
0 – 1
8.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.35
Yverdon Sport xG
Total xG
3.02
1.67
Servette FC xG
3.23
31%
Home win
4.19
24%
Draw
2.21
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.51
Clean Sheet
19%
5.32
26%
3.85
Win to Nil
6%
17.18
12%
8.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 8.2 | 6.8 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 6.6 | 11.0 | 9.2 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 7.4 | 6.2 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 3.3 | 2.8 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Yverdon Sport vs Servette FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Yverdon Sport and Servette FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.35 expected goals for Yverdon Sport and 1.67 for Servette FC, a combined total of 3.02.
How confident is the prediction model for Yverdon Sport vs Servette FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Yverdon Sport come into this having played 22 games, going 7W 6D 9L for 1.23 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-L-W. The sample for Yverdon Sport is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Servette FC sit at 1.86 PPG from 22 outings (11W 8D 3L), a run that reads D-D-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Servette FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Servette FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.63 PPG clear of Yverdon Sport — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Yverdon Sport's home form reads 6W 3D 2L across 11 games on their own ground, a 1.91 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.23 PPG overall — Yverdon Sport are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Servette FC have taken 1.73 points per game from 11 outings (5W 4D 2L).
Goals in Recent Form
Yverdon Sport are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Servette FC are on 1.77 scored and 1.18 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Yverdon Sport have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games; Servette FC in 64%.
Last 22 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Yverdon Sport
Blended
Servette FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Yverdon Sport and Servette FC in coming into this match?
Yverdon Sport have gone 7W 6D 9L in their last 22 games (1.23 PPG), while Servette FC have gone 11W 8D 3L in their last 22 (1.86 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Yverdon Sport at home or Servette FC away?
Yverdon Sport's home record (1.91 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Yverdon Sport at home: 1.91 PPG; Servette FC away: 1.73 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 March 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Aug 2023, when Yverdon Sport won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Yverdon Sport's record when hosting Servette FC specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Yverdon Sport
1
Draws
2
Servette FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Yverdon Sport and Servette FC?
From 6 meetings on record, Yverdon Sport have won 3, Servette FC have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Yverdon Sport and Servette FC last play each other?
They last met on 15 March 2025, when Servette FC 2-3 Yverdon Sport.
Who has won more matches between Yverdon Sport and Servette FC?
Yverdon Sport have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Yverdon Sport are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Servette FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 27% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Yverdon Sport 64%, Servette FC 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 82% (Yverdon Sport) and 27% (Servette FC).
On the defensive side: Servette FC in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Yverdon Sport home games / Servette FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Yverdon Sport play Servette FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Yverdon Sport's games and 54% of Servette FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Yverdon Sport vs Servette FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 82% of Yverdon Sport's recent games and 27% of Servette FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Yverdon Sport and Servette FC tend to score early?
Yverdon Sport have had a goal before half-time in 91% of their recent matches, Servette FC in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Yverdon Sport defy the odds to beat Servette FC 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Yverdon Sport beat Servette FC 2-1 at Stade Municipal, Regular Season - 23, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Yverdon Sport 1.35 xG and Servette FC 1.67 xG, a combined 3.02. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Yverdon Sport attack 1.04 / defence 1.16 against Servette FC attack 1.14 / defence 0.84, drawn from 22/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Yverdon Sport 31% | Draw 24% | Servette FC 45%, with Servette FC to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Yverdon Sport win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Yverdon Sport 68%, Servette FC 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Yverdon Sport's trading profile (22 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Servette FC's trading profile (22 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Servette FC arrived the stronger side — 1.86 PPG against 1.23. Form was overturned, with Yverdon Sport winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Servette FC (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.18 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.