Yverdon Sport 1-4 FC Basel 1893 – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates FC Basel 1893 at 53% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Yverdon Sport vs FC Basel 1893 encounter.

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Analysis

FC Basel 1893 make the trip to Stade Municipal to face Yverdon Sport in Super League, Regular Season - 14. The match kicks off on Saturday 9 November 2024 at 17:00 UTC.

Form

Yverdon Sport (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Super League fixtures this term — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D W W L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Yverdon Sport, so this record blends games from this season and last.

In front of their own supporters this season, Yverdon Sport have posted 7W 1D 2L at Stade Municipal — 2.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Yverdon Sport are significantly better at Stade Municipal than their overall form suggests.

FC Basel 1893's overall Super League record this term: 6W 1D 3L from 10 games (1.90 PPG). Last five: W W W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for FC Basel 1893, so this record blends games from this season and last.

When travelling in Super League this season, FC Basel 1893 have posted 4W 3D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.50 PPG. They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.

The travelling side arrive in better shape. FC Basel 1893 are 0.50 PPG clear of Yverdon Sport in recent Super League fixtures (1.90 vs 1.40). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.

Head-to-Head

Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 5 meetings: Yverdon Sport 1W, FC Basel 1893 3W, 1D.

The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Aug 2024, ended 0–2 with FC Basel 1893 winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading Data

Yverdon Sport goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 31% of games.

FC Basel 1893 goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Yverdon Sport 59% versus FC Basel 1893 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Yverdon Sport 61% | FC Basel 1893 51%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Yverdon Sport 1.37 xG and FC Basel 1893 2.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Yverdon Sport attack 0.912 / defence 1.049 | FC Basel 1893 attack 1.575 / defence 0.965. League average goals — home 1.557 / away 1.234. FC Basel 1893 have an above-average attack strength of 1.575 — the away xG of 2.04 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 46 Yverdon Sport games / 46 FC Basel 1893 games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Yverdon Sport 26% | Draw 21% | FC Basel 1893 53%. Fair-value odds: Yverdon Sport 3.85 | Draw 4.76 | FC Basel 1893 1.89. FC Basel 1893 hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (21%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.41. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.41 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.37 / 2.04) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates FC Basel 1893 as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.

The Poisson model projects 3.41 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 66% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 65% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Yverdon Sport 50% | FC Basel 1893 50%.

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