Lausanne 4-1 Servette FC – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Servette FC at 52% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Lausanne vs Servette FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Servette FC make the trip to Stade de la Tuilière to face Lausanne in Super League, Regular Season - 28. The match kicks off on Sunday 3 April 2022 at 15:30 UTC.
Current Form
Lausanne's overall Super League record this term: 0W 1D 9L from 10 games (0.10 PPG). Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. This season is still relatively young for Lausanne, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Lausanne have posted 1W 2D 7L at Stade de la Tuilière — 0.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Servette FC (all games): 5W 1D 4L across 10 Super League outings this term — 1.60 points per game. Last five: L W W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Servette FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Servette FC's form when playing away from home: 4W 0D 6L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Servette FC are 1.50 PPG clear of Lausanne in recent Super League fixtures (1.60 vs 0.10). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Trading Data
Lausanne goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (27 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 86% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Servette FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (27 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Lausanne 63% and Servette FC 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lausanne 52% | Servette FC 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lausanne 1.20 xG and Servette FC 1.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lausanne attack 0.732 / defence 1.488 | Servette FC attack 0.762 / defence 1.364. League average goals — home 1.201 / away 1.596. Lausanne's attack strength of 0.732 is below the league average — the 1.20 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Servette FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.364 — this is suppressing Lausanne's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 27 Lausanne games / 27 Servette FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lausanne 25% | Draw 23% | Servette FC 52%. Fair-value odds: Lausanne 4.00 | Draw 4.35 | Servette FC 1.92. Servette FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 3.01. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.01 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Servette FC are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Servette FC if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 3.01 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Lausanne 60% | Servette FC 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lausanne vs Servette FC | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Stade de la Tuilière • Kick-off: Sunday 3 Apr 2022, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lausanne 25% | Draw 23% | Servette FC 52% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 58% | xG Lausanne 1.20 / Servette FC 1.81 • Poisson strength factors: Lausanne attack 0.732 / def 1.488 | Servette FC attack 0.762 / def 1.364 | league avg home 1.201 / away 1.596 • Poisson stance: Servette FC (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
Lausanne xG
Expected Goals
1.81
Servette FC xG
58%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lausanne vs Servette FC kick off?
Lausanne vs Servette FC kicked off at 15:30 on Sunday 3 April 2022 at Stade de la Tuilière.
What was the final score in Lausanne vs Servette FC?
Lausanne 4 - 1 Servette FC.
Where is Lausanne vs Servette FC being played?
The match is being played at Stade de la Tuilière.
What competition is Lausanne vs Servette FC part of?
Lausanne vs Servette FC is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Super League (Switzerland).
Who is favourite to win Lausanne vs Servette FC?
Our statistical model gives Lausanne a 25% chance of winning, Servette FC a 52% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Servette FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lausanne vs Servette FC?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Lausanne and Servette FC will score (BTTS).
Will Lausanne vs Servette FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lausanne and Servette FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Lausanne and Servette FC in?
Lausanne (all comps): 0W-1D-9L in 10 | 0.10 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-L-L-D-L. Servette FC (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Lausanne's attacking strength (0.73x league average) is weighed against Servette FC's defensive record (1.36x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.20. Flip it around — Servette FC's attack (0.76x) against Lausanne's defence (1.49x) — and the away total comes out at 1.81.
These ratings are built from 27/27 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.1%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.7%), 0-2 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Servette FC Win
25%
3.96
23%
4.33
52%
1.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.7%
Away win
0 – 1
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
Lausanne xG
Total xG
3.01
1.81
Servette FC xG
3.96
25%
Home win
4.33
23%
Draw
1.94
52%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.71
42%
BTTS No
2.41
Clean Sheet
16%
6.10
30%
3.32
Win to Nil
4%
24.16
16%
6.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 8.9 | 8.1 | 4.9 | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 5.9 | 10.7 | 9.7 | 5.8 | 2.6 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 3.6 | 6.4 | 5.8 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.6 | 2.3 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lausanne vs Servette FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Lausanne and Servette FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Lausanne and 1.81 for Servette FC, a combined total of 3.01.
How confident is the prediction model for Lausanne vs Servette FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Lausanne come into this having played 27 games, going 2W 7D 18L for 0.48 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-D-L. The sample for Lausanne is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Servette FC sit at 1.41 PPG from 27 outings (11W 5D 11L), a run that reads L-W-W-L-W across their last five. The sample for Servette FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Servette FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.93 PPG clear of Lausanne — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Lausanne's home form reads 1W 4D 9L across 14 games on their own ground, a 0.50 PPG return.
Away from home, Servette FC have taken 1.21 points per game from 14 outings (5W 2D 7L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Servette FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Lausanne are averaging 0.85 goals scored and 2.15 conceded per game recently; Servette FC are on 1.56 scored and 1.74 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lausanne have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games; Servette FC in 67%.
Last 27 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lausanne
Blended
Servette FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lausanne and Servette FC in coming into this match?
Lausanne have gone 2W 7D 18L in their last 27 games (0.48 PPG), while Servette FC have gone 11W 5D 11L in their last 27 (1.41 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lausanne at home or Servette FC away?
Servette FC's away record (1.21 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lausanne at home: 0.50 PPG; Servette FC away: 1.21 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since December 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 12 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Lausanne have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Servette FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Lausanne
3
Draws
5
Servette FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lausanne and Servette FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Lausanne have won 2, Servette FC have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Lausanne and Servette FC last play each other?
They last met on 12 May 2026, when Servette FC 2-0 Lausanne.
Who has won more matches between Lausanne and Servette FC?
Servette FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Lausanne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Servette FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 71% for Lausanne, 64% for Servette FC — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 64% for Lausanne and 64% for Servette FC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Lausanne have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lausanne home games / Servette FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lausanne play Servette FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Lausanne's games and 64% of Servette FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Lausanne vs Servette FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Lausanne's matches and 64% of Servette FC's.
Do Lausanne and Servette FC tend to score early?
Lausanne have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Servette FC in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Lausanne run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Servette FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lausanne beat Servette FC 4-1 at Stade de la Tuilière, Regular Season - 28, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lausanne 1.20 xG and Servette FC 1.81 xG, a combined 3.01. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Lausanne beat their projection by 2.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Servette FC landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lausanne attack 0.73 / defence 1.49 against Servette FC attack 0.76 / defence 1.36, drawn from 27/27 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lausanne 25% | Draw 23% | Servette FC 52%, with Servette FC to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a Lausanne win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lausanne 52%, Servette FC 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lausanne's trading profile (27 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Servette FC's trading profile (27 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Servette FC arrived the stronger side — 1.41 PPG against 0.48. Form was overturned, with Lausanne winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Lausanne (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.43 average — tighter than their form line. Servette FC (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.86 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.