Lausanne vs FC Vaduz – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Lausanne at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Lausanne vs FC Vaduz fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade de la Tuiliere plays host to Lausanne versus FC Vaduz in Super League, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off: Saturday 21 November 2026 at 16:00 UTC.
Current Form
Lausanne's overall Super League record this term: 2W 2D 6L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: D W D L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Lausanne have played only a handful of Super League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Lausanne's home record at Stade de la Tuiliere: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Super League appearances (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
FC Vaduz (all games): 1W 0D 4L across 5 Super League outings this term — 0.60 points per game. Last five: L L L L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Conceding 2.80 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. FC Vaduz have played only a handful of Super League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
FC Vaduz away from home this season: 0W 0D 3L from 3 away games — 0.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.67 goals scored and 3.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.00 is notably below their overall 0.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.80 for Lausanne, 0.60 for FC Vaduz — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Lausanne register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant games, FC Vaduz in 100%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Lausanne — key trading statistics (5 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 40% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games; Over 3.5 in 40%.
FC Vaduz — key trading statistics (5 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games; Over 3.5 in 80%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Lausanne 60% and FC Vaduz 100% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Lausanne 40% | FC Vaduz 100%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lausanne 2.11 xG and FC Vaduz 1.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lausanne attack 0.869 / defence 1.030 | FC Vaduz attack 0.931 / defence 1.241. League average goals — home 1.955 / away 1.846. FC Vaduz bring a strong defensive rating of 1.241 — this is suppressing Lausanne's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 38 Lausanne games / 5 FC Vaduz games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lausanne 46% | Draw 21% | FC Vaduz 33%. Fair-value odds: Lausanne 2.17 | Draw 4.76 | FC Vaduz 3.03. Lausanne hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (21%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 74% | BTTS probability 73% | Total xG 3.88. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 74% — a total xG of 3.88 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 73% reflects that both xG figures (2.11 / 1.77) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Lausanne at 46% — moderate model lean. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.88 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 74% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 4.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 73% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Lausanne 80% | FC Vaduz 100% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lausanne vs FC Vaduz | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Stade de la Tuiliere • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Nov 2026, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lausanne 46% | Draw 21% | FC Vaduz 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 74% | BTTS 73% | xG Lausanne 2.11 / FC Vaduz 1.77 • Poisson strength factors: Lausanne attack 0.869 / def 1.030 | FC Vaduz attack 0.931 / def 1.241 | league avg home 1.955 / away 1.846 • Poisson stance: Lausanne (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.11
Lausanne xG
Expected Goals
1.77
FC Vaduz xG
73%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
74%
Over 2.5
54%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lausanne vs FC Vaduz kick off?
Lausanne vs FC Vaduz is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Saturday 21 November 2026 at Stade de la Tuiliere.
Where is Lausanne vs FC Vaduz being played?
The match is being played at Stade de la Tuiliere.
What competition is Lausanne vs FC Vaduz part of?
Lausanne vs FC Vaduz is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Super League (Switzerland).
Who is favourite to win Lausanne vs FC Vaduz?
Our statistical model gives Lausanne a 46% chance of winning, FC Vaduz a 33% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Lausanne the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lausanne vs FC Vaduz?
Our model estimates a 73% probability that both Lausanne and FC Vaduz will score (BTTS).
Will Lausanne vs FC Vaduz have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 74%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lausanne and FC Vaduz?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Lausanne and FC Vaduz in?
Lausanne (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-W-D-L-L. FC Vaduz (all comps): 1W-0D-4L in 5 | 0.60 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 2.80 | L5 L-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Lausanne's attack at 0.87x the league average against FC Vaduz's defence at 1.24x — combine the two and it projects 2.11 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — FC Vaduz's attack (0.93x) against Lausanne's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 1.77.
These ratings are built from 38/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 8.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.1%), 2-2 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Lausanne Win
46%
2.16
21%
4.81
33%
3.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.7%
Draw
2 – 2
7.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.11
Lausanne xG
Total xG
3.88
1.77
FC Vaduz xG
2.16
46%
Home win
4.81
21%
Draw
3.03
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
90%
Over 1.5
1.11
10%
Under 1.5
10.00
74%
Over 2.5
1.35
26%
Under 2.5
3.85
54%
Over 3.5
1.85
46%
Under 3.5
2.17
35%
Over 4.5
2.86
65%
Under 4.5
1.54
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
73%
BTTS Yes
1.37
27%
BTTS No
3.69
Clean Sheet
17%
5.87
12%
8.23
Win to Nil
8%
12.71
4%
24.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.1 | 3.7 | 3.2 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 4.4 | 7.7 | 6.8 | 4.0 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 8.1 | 7.2 | 4.2 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 5.7 | 5.1 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 3.0 | 2.7 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lausanne vs FC Vaduz?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.7%.
How many goals are Lausanne and FC Vaduz expected to score?
The model projects 2.11 expected goals for Lausanne and 1.77 for FC Vaduz, a combined total of 3.88.
How confident is the prediction model for Lausanne vs FC Vaduz?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Lausanne come into this having played 5 games, going 1W 2D 2L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-D-L-L. It's still early in the season for Lausanne, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, FC Vaduz sit at 0.60 PPG from 5 outings (1W 0D 4L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for FC Vaduz, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Lausanne carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.40 PPG clear of FC Vaduz — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Lausanne's home form reads 0W 2D 1L across 3 games on their own ground, a 0.67 PPG return.
Away from home, FC Vaduz have taken 0.00 points per game from 3 outings (0W 0D 3L). That's a step down from their 0.60 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of FC Vaduz's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lausanne come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Lausanne are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; FC Vaduz are on 2.40 scored and 2.80 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lausanne have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; FC Vaduz in 100%.
Last 5 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lausanne
Early Season
FC Vaduz
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lausanne and FC Vaduz in coming into this match?
Lausanne have gone 1W 2D 2L in their last 5 games (1.00 PPG), while FC Vaduz have gone 1W 0D 4L in their last 5 (0.60 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lausanne at home or FC Vaduz away?
Lausanne's home record (0.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lausanne at home: 0.67 PPG; FC Vaduz away: 0.00 PPG.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Lausanne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 67% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
FC Vaduz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 100% for Lausanne, 100% for FC Vaduz — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Lausanne and 100% for FC Vaduz. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 67% and 67% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lausanne home games / FC Vaduz away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lausanne play FC Vaduz?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Lausanne's games and 100% of FC Vaduz's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Lausanne vs FC Vaduz usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Lausanne's matches and 100% of FC Vaduz's.
Do Lausanne and FC Vaduz tend to score early?
Lausanne have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, FC Vaduz in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.