Lausanne 1-1 FC Sion – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lausanne at 47%, yet in-form FC Sion provide a compelling counter-argument — this Lausanne vs FC Sion fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Lausanne and FC Sion meet at Stade de la Tuilière in Super League, Regular Season - 6. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 12 September 2021 at 15:30 UTC.
Form
Lausanne (all games): 0W 2D 3L across 5 Super League fixtures this term — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L L L D D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Lausanne have played only a handful of Super League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
FC Sion's overall Super League record this term: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: L L W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 5 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. FC Sion have played only a handful of Super League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
FC Sion arrive in superior form — a 1.00 PPG advantage (1.40 vs 0.40) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using overall form) — Lausanne register both teams scoring in 100% of relevant games, FC Sion in 80%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Trading
Lausanne half-time and goal-timing data (5 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games; Over 3.5 in 60%.
FC Sion half-time and goal-timing data (5 games): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games; Over 3.5 in 40%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Lausanne 100% and FC Sion 80% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Lausanne 80% | FC Sion 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lausanne 1.91 xG and FC Sion 1.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lausanne attack 0.875 / defence 1.265 | FC Sion attack 0.764 / defence 1.366. League average goals — home 1.600 / away 1.408. FC Sion bring a strong defensive rating of 1.366 — this is suppressing Lausanne's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 5 Lausanne games / 5 FC Sion games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Lausanne 47% | Draw 28% | FC Sion 24%. Fair-value odds: Lausanne 2.13 | Draw 3.57 | FC Sion 4.17. Lausanne hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.27. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.27 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (1.91 / 1.36) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Lausanne are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form FC Sion (1.40 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Lausanne if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 3.27 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 64% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 66% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Lausanne 100% | FC Sion 80% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (5 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lausanne vs FC Sion | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Stade de la Tuilière • Kick-off: Sunday 12 Sep 2021, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lausanne 47% | Draw 28% | FC Sion 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 66% | xG Lausanne 1.91 / FC Sion 1.36 • Poisson strength factors: Lausanne attack 0.875 / def 1.265 | FC Sion attack 0.764 / def 1.366 | league avg home 1.600 / away 1.408 • Poisson stance: Lausanne (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.91
Lausanne xG
Expected Goals
1.36
FC Sion xG
66%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lausanne vs FC Sion kick off?
Lausanne vs FC Sion kicked off at 15:30 on Sunday 12 September 2021 at Stade de la Tuilière.
What was the final score in Lausanne vs FC Sion?
Lausanne 1 - 1 FC Sion.
Where is Lausanne vs FC Sion being played?
The match is being played at Stade de la Tuilière.
What competition is Lausanne vs FC Sion part of?
Lausanne vs FC Sion is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Super League (Switzerland).
Who is favourite to win Lausanne vs FC Sion?
Our statistical model gives Lausanne a 47% chance of winning, FC Sion a 24% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Lausanne the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lausanne vs FC Sion?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Lausanne and FC Sion will score (BTTS).
Will Lausanne vs FC Sion have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lausanne and FC Sion?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Lausanne and FC Sion in?
Lausanne (all comps): 0W-2D-3L in 5 | 0.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-L-L-D-D. FC Sion (all comps): 2W-1D-2L in 5 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Lausanne's attacking strength (0.88x league average) is weighed against FC Sion's defensive record (1.37x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.91. Flip it around — FC Sion's attack (0.76x) against Lausanne's defence (1.26x) — and the away total comes out at 1.36.
The sample (5/5 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 2-0 (6.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Lausanne Win
47%
2.11
28%
3.55
24%
4.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
1 – 0
7.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.91
Lausanne xG
Total xG
3.27
1.36
FC Sion xG
2.11
47%
Home win
3.55
28%
Draw
4.11
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.51
34%
BTTS No
2.97
Clean Sheet
26%
3.90
15%
6.77
Win to Nil
12%
8.21
4%
27.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 5.2 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 9.9 | 6.7 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 9.4 | 6.4 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 6.0 | 4.1 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.9 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lausanne vs FC Sion?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.1%.
How many goals are Lausanne and FC Sion expected to score?
The model projects 1.91 expected goals for Lausanne and 1.36 for FC Sion, a combined total of 3.27.
How confident is the prediction model for Lausanne vs FC Sion?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 5 outings, Lausanne have picked up 0.40 PPG on a 0W 2D 3L record — L-L-L-D-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Lausanne, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
FC Sion's form line: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games, 1.40 PPG, last five L-L-W-D-W. It's still early in the season for FC Sion, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, FC Sion are the form team by 1.00 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Lausanne.
Attack vs Defence
Lausanne are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game recently; FC Sion are on 1.40 scored and 2.20 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lausanne have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games; FC Sion in 80%.
Last 5 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lausanne
Early Season
FC Sion
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lausanne and FC Sion in coming into this match?
Lausanne have gone 0W 2D 3L in their last 5 games (0.40 PPG), while FC Sion have gone 2W 1D 2L in their last 5 (1.40 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 12 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: FC Sion won 4-0 on 27 Jul 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Lausanne have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against FC Sion — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Lausanne
3
Draws
5
FC Sion
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lausanne and FC Sion?
From 10 meetings on record, Lausanne have won 2, FC Sion have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Lausanne and FC Sion last play each other?
They last met on 12 April 2026, when FC Sion 3-0 Lausanne.
Who has won more matches between Lausanne and FC Sion?
FC Sion have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Lausanne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches.
FC Sion are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 100% for Lausanne, 80% for FC Sion — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 80% for Lausanne and 60% for FC Sion. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 60% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lausanne home games / FC Sion away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lausanne play FC Sion?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Lausanne's games and 80% of FC Sion's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Lausanne vs FC Sion usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 80% of Lausanne's matches and 60% of FC Sion's.
Do Lausanne and FC Sion tend to score early?
Lausanne have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, FC Sion in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Lausanne and FC Sion share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lausanne and FC Sion finished level at 1-1 at Stade de la Tuilière, Regular Season - 6, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lausanne 1.91 xG and FC Sion 1.36 xG, a combined 3.27. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Lausanne fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lausanne attack 0.88 / defence 1.26 against FC Sion attack 0.76 / defence 1.37, drawn from 5/5 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Lausanne 47% | Draw 28% | FC Sion 24%, with Lausanne to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 70% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lausanne 80%, FC Sion 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 90%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lausanne's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 100% of their matches — today it did.
FC Sion's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 80% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, FC Sion arrived the stronger side — 1.40 PPG against 0.40. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Lausanne conceded 1 against a 2.20 average — tighter than their form line. FC Sion conceded 1 against a 2.20 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.