Lausanne 0-2 FC Lugano – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates FC Lugano at 37% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Lausanne vs FC Lugano encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade de la Tuilière plays host to Lausanne versus FC Lugano in Super League, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off: Sunday 7 November 2021 at 15:30 UTC.
Current Form
Lausanne's overall Super League record this term: 1W 5D 4L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: D L W L D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Lausanne, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lausanne at Stade de la Tuilière this season: 1W 3D 2L from 6 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 2.17 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
FC Lugano have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: W W L L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.20. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for FC Lugano, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Lugano away from home this season: 2W 0D 3L from 5 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
FC Lugano arrive in superior form — a 0.90 PPG advantage (1.70 vs 0.80) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Trading
Lausanne half-time and goal-timing data (11 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 27% of the time; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 54%.
FC Lugano half-time and goal-timing data (11 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Lausanne 91% and FC Lugano 54% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lausanne 54% | FC Lugano 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lausanne 1.48 xG and FC Lugano 1.56 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lausanne attack 0.916 / defence 1.361 | FC Lugano attack 0.754 / defence 1.124. League average goals — home 1.432 / away 1.520. Data: 12 Lausanne games / 11 FC Lugano games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lausanne 33% | Draw 30% | FC Lugano 37%. Fair-value odds: Lausanne 3.03 | Draw 3.33 | FC Lugano 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.04. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.04 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.48 / 1.56) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is FC Lugano at 37% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FC Lugano if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.04 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 58% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 64% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Lausanne 100% | FC Lugano 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lausanne vs FC Lugano | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Stade de la Tuilière • Kick-off: Sunday 7 Nov 2021, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lausanne 33% | Draw 30% | FC Lugano 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 64% | xG Lausanne 1.48 / FC Lugano 1.56 • Poisson strength factors: Lausanne attack 0.916 / def 1.361 | FC Lugano attack 0.754 / def 1.124 | league avg home 1.432 / away 1.520 • Poisson stance: FC Lugano (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.48
Lausanne xG
Expected Goals
1.56
FC Lugano xG
64%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lausanne vs FC Lugano kick off?
Lausanne vs FC Lugano kicked off at 15:30 on Sunday 7 November 2021 at Stade de la Tuilière.
What was the final score in Lausanne vs FC Lugano?
Lausanne 0 - 2 FC Lugano.
Where is Lausanne vs FC Lugano being played?
The match is being played at Stade de la Tuilière.
What competition is Lausanne vs FC Lugano part of?
Lausanne vs FC Lugano is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Super League (Switzerland).
Who is favourite to win Lausanne vs FC Lugano?
Our statistical model gives Lausanne a 33% chance of winning, FC Lugano a 37% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making FC Lugano the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lausanne vs FC Lugano?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Lausanne and FC Lugano will score (BTTS).
Will Lausanne vs FC Lugano have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lausanne and FC Lugano?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Lausanne and FC Lugano in?
Lausanne (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.10 | L5 D-L-W-L-D. FC Lugano (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Lausanne's attack at 0.92x the league average against FC Lugano's defence at 1.12x — combine the two and it projects 1.48 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — FC Lugano's attack (0.75x) against Lausanne's defence (1.36x) — and the away total comes out at 1.56.
These ratings are built from 12/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.6%), 2-1 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Lugano Win
33%
3.01
30%
3.34
37%
2.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.6%
Away win
2 – 1
8.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.48
Lausanne xG
Total xG
3.04
1.56
FC Lugano xG
3.01
33%
Home win
3.34
30%
Draw
2.71
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.57
36%
BTTS No
2.77
Clean Sheet
21%
4.76
23%
4.38
Win to Nil
7%
14.34
8%
11.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 7.5 | 5.8 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.1 | 11.1 | 8.6 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 8.2 | 6.4 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 4.0 | 3.1 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lausanne vs FC Lugano?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Lausanne and FC Lugano expected to score?
The model projects 1.48 expected goals for Lausanne and 1.56 for FC Lugano, a combined total of 3.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Lausanne vs FC Lugano?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Lausanne's recent record stands at 1W 5D 5L from 11 games, a 0.73 PPG return, with D-L-W-L-D in the last five. The sample for Lausanne is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC Lugano, meanwhile, have gone 5W 2D 4L across 11 games — 1.55 PPG, with W-W-L-L-W in their last five. The sample for FC Lugano is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours FC Lugano by 0.82 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Lausanne heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Lausanne have managed 1W 3D 1L from 5 games — 1.20 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 0.73 PPG overall — Lausanne are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
FC Lugano's away record stands at 2W 0D 3L across 5 trips, a 1.20 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Lausanne are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 2.18 conceded per game recently; FC Lugano are on 1.36 scored and 1.27 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lausanne have seen both teams score in 91% of their recent games.
Last 11 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lausanne
Blended
FC Lugano
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lausanne and FC Lugano in coming into this match?
Lausanne have gone 1W 5D 5L in their last 11 games (0.73 PPG), while FC Lugano have gone 5W 2D 4L in their last 11 (1.55 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lausanne at home or FC Lugano away?
Lausanne's home record (1.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lausanne at home: 1.20 PPG; FC Lugano away: 1.20 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 22 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Lausanne won 1-4 on 15 Dec 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Lausanne have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against FC Lugano — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Lausanne
3
Draws
4
FC Lugano
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lausanne and FC Lugano?
From 10 meetings on record, Lausanne have won 3, FC Lugano have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Lausanne and FC Lugano last play each other?
They last met on 22 February 2026, when FC Lugano 2-1 Lausanne.
Who has won more matches between Lausanne and FC Lugano?
FC Lugano have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Lausanne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 40% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
FC Lugano are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 100% for Lausanne, 40% for FC Lugano — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Lausanne) and 40% (FC Lugano).
On the defensive side: FC Lugano in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lausanne home games / FC Lugano away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lausanne play FC Lugano?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Lausanne's games and 40% of FC Lugano's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Lausanne vs FC Lugano usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Lausanne's recent games and 40% of FC Lugano's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lausanne and FC Lugano tend to score early?
Lausanne have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, FC Lugano in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
FC Lugano cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Lausanne.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Lugano beat Lausanne 0-2 at Stade de la Tuilière, Regular Season - 13, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lausanne 1.48 xG and FC Lugano 1.56 xG, a combined 3.04. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Lausanne fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lausanne attack 0.92 / defence 1.36 against FC Lugano attack 0.75 / defence 1.12, drawn from 12/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lausanne 33% | Draw 30% | FC Lugano 37%, with FC Lugano to win its most likely call at 37%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lausanne 54%, FC Lugano 36%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 73%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lausanne's trading profile (11 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 91% of their matches — today it did not.
FC Lugano's trading profile (11 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, FC Lugano arrived the stronger side — 1.55 PPG against 0.73. That form edge translated into the three points. Lausanne (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.60 scoring average — below par going forward. FC Lugano (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.60 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.