Lausanne 0-1 BSC Young Boys – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates BSC Young Boys at 36% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Lausanne vs BSC Young Boys encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League clash, Regular Season - 22 as Lausanne welcome BSC Young Boys to Stade de la Tuilière. Kick-off is set for Saturday 3 February 2024 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Lausanne — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Super League outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: D L L L D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Lausanne, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Lausanne have posted 4W 3D 3L at Stade de la Tuilière — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, BSC Young Boys stand at 7W 1D 2L from 10 Super League matches — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W W W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for BSC Young Boys, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, BSC Young Boys have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. BSC Young Boys's 2.20 PPG return is 1.00 points per game ahead of Lausanne's 1.20 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Lausanne register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, BSC Young Boys in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Lausanne, 1 for BSC Young Boys and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 23 Jul 2023, ended 1–2 with BSC Young Boys winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Lausanne in-play and half-time data (21 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
BSC Young Boys in-play and half-time data (21 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 52% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Lausanne 71% and BSC Young Boys 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lausanne 71% | BSC Young Boys 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lausanne 1.22 xG and BSC Young Boys 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lausanne attack 0.851 / defence 0.927 | BSC Young Boys attack 0.980 / defence 0.922. League average goals — home 1.555 / away 1.350. Data: 21 Lausanne games / 57 BSC Young Boys games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lausanne 36% | Draw 27% | BSC Young Boys 36%. Fair-value odds: Lausanne 2.78 | Draw 3.70 | BSC Young Boys 2.78. The draw (27%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.45. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.45 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 27% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 36% and away win at 36% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.45 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Lausanne 60% | BSC Young Boys 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lausanne vs BSC Young Boys | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Stade de la Tuilière • Kick-off: Saturday 3 Feb 2024, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lausanne 36% | Draw 27% | BSC Young Boys 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 50% | xG Lausanne 1.22 / BSC Young Boys 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Lausanne attack 0.851 / def 0.927 | BSC Young Boys attack 0.980 / def 0.922 | league avg home 1.555 / away 1.350 • Poisson stance: Draw (27%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.22
Lausanne xG
Expected Goals
1.23
BSC Young Boys xG
50%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lausanne vs BSC Young Boys kick off?
Lausanne vs BSC Young Boys kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 3 February 2024 at Stade de la Tuilière.
What was the final score in Lausanne vs BSC Young Boys?
Lausanne 0 - 1 BSC Young Boys.
Where is Lausanne vs BSC Young Boys being played?
The match is being played at Stade de la Tuilière.
What competition is Lausanne vs BSC Young Boys part of?
Lausanne vs BSC Young Boys is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Super League (Switzerland).
Who is favourite to win Lausanne vs BSC Young Boys?
Our statistical model gives Lausanne a 36% chance of winning, BSC Young Boys a 36% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Lausanne vs BSC Young Boys?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Lausanne and BSC Young Boys will score (BTTS).
Will Lausanne vs BSC Young Boys have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lausanne and BSC Young Boys?
Record (1 meetings): Lausanne 0W | Draws 0 | BSC Young Boys 1W.
What form are Lausanne and BSC Young Boys in?
Lausanne (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-L-L-D. BSC Young Boys (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Lausanne's attack at 0.85x the league average against BSC Young Boys's defence at 0.92x — combine the two and it projects 1.22 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, BSC Young Boys's attack versus Lausanne's defence, projects 1.23 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 21/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.4%), 0-1 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
BSC Young Boys Win
36%
2.76
27%
3.65
36%
2.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.6%
Away win
1 – 0
10.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.22
Lausanne xG
Total xG
2.45
1.23
BSC Young Boys xG
2.76
36%
Home win
3.65
27%
Draw
2.74
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
29%
3.40
30%
3.39
Win to Nil
11%
9.41
11%
9.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 10.6 | 6.5 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 13.0 | 7.9 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 7.9 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.2 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lausanne vs BSC Young Boys?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Lausanne and BSC Young Boys expected to score?
The model projects 1.22 expected goals for Lausanne and 1.23 for BSC Young Boys, a combined total of 2.45.
How confident is the prediction model for Lausanne vs BSC Young Boys?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 21 outings, Lausanne have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 5W 6D 10L record — D-L-L-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Lausanne is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
BSC Young Boys's form line: 13W 5D 3L from 21 games, 2.10 PPG, last five W-W-W-L-W. The sample for BSC Young Boys is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, BSC Young Boys are the form team by 1.10 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Lausanne.
Venue Form
On home soil, Lausanne have posted 1.50 PPG from 10 outings (4W 3D 3L). That's noticeably better than their 1.00 PPG overall — Lausanne are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, BSC Young Boys have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 away games — 1.50 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 2.10 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of BSC Young Boys's season.
Goals in Recent Form
Lausanne are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; BSC Young Boys are on 2.19 scored and 0.90 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lausanne have seen both teams score in 71% of their recent games; BSC Young Boys in 62%.
Last 21 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lausanne
Blended
BSC Young Boys
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lausanne and BSC Young Boys in coming into this match?
Lausanne have gone 5W 6D 10L in their last 21 games (1.00 PPG), while BSC Young Boys have gone 13W 5D 3L in their last 21 (2.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lausanne at home or BSC Young Boys away?
Lausanne's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lausanne at home: 1.50 PPG; BSC Young Boys away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Lausanne or BSC Young Boys been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lausanne have kept a clean sheet in 14% of their recent games, BSC Young Boys in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 15 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 5 Oct 2025, when Lausanne won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Lausanne's record when hosting BSC Young Boys specifically: 3W 0D 3L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Lausanne
1
Draws
5
BSC Young Boys
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lausanne and BSC Young Boys?
From 10 meetings on record, Lausanne have won 4, BSC Young Boys have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Lausanne and BSC Young Boys last play each other?
They last met on 15 March 2026, when Lausanne 0-2 BSC Young Boys.
Who has won more matches between Lausanne and BSC Young Boys?
BSC Young Boys have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Lausanne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
BSC Young Boys are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Lausanne at 60%, BSC Young Boys at 70%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Lausanne) and 50% (BSC Young Boys).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lausanne home games / BSC Young Boys away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lausanne play BSC Young Boys?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Lausanne's games and 70% of BSC Young Boys's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Lausanne vs BSC Young Boys usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Lausanne's recent games and 50% of BSC Young Boys's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lausanne and BSC Young Boys tend to score early?
Lausanne have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, BSC Young Boys in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as BSC Young Boys edge out Lausanne 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
BSC Young Boys beat Lausanne 0-1 at Stade de la Tuilière, Regular Season - 22, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lausanne 1.22 xG and BSC Young Boys 1.23 xG, a combined 2.45. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Lausanne fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lausanne attack 0.85 / defence 0.93 against BSC Young Boys attack 0.98 / defence 0.92, drawn from 21/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lausanne 36% | Draw 27% | BSC Young Boys 36%, with Lausanne to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual BSC Young Boys win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lausanne 71%, BSC Young Boys 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lausanne's trading profile (21 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did not.
BSC Young Boys's trading profile (21 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, BSC Young Boys arrived the stronger side — 2.10 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Lausanne (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward. BSC Young Boys (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.20 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.