FC ST. Gallen 0-1 Lausanne – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC ST. Gallen at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC ST. Gallen vs Lausanne fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League clash, Regular Season - 14 as FC ST. Gallen welcome Lausanne to Kybunpark. Kick-off is set for Sunday 21 November 2021 at 13:15 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League games this season, FC ST. Gallen have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: L W L W W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for FC ST. Gallen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC ST. Gallen's home record at Kybunpark: 2W 3D 1L from 6 Super League appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.83 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 83% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Lausanne — All Games: 1W 5D 4L from 10 Super League fixtures this season — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L W L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Lausanne, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lausanne's away record: 0W 2D 4L from 6 road trips in Super League this season (0.33 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.17 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 83% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.10 PPG (FC ST. Gallen) versus 0.80 (Lausanne). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Both teams score in over 83% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
In-Play Data
FC ST. Gallen trading profile (13 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Lausanne trading profile (13 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC ST. Gallen 77% and Lausanne 85% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC ST. Gallen 69% | Lausanne 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC ST. Gallen 1.89 xG and Lausanne 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC ST. Gallen attack 1.065 / defence 1.115 | Lausanne attack 0.722 / defence 1.345. League average goals — home 1.321 / away 1.514. Lausanne bring a strong defensive rating of 1.345 — this is suppressing FC ST. Gallen's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 13 FC ST. Gallen games / 13 Lausanne games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC ST. Gallen 52% | Draw 24% | Lausanne 24%. Fair-value odds: FC ST. Gallen 1.92 | Draw 4.17 | Lausanne 4.17. FC ST. Gallen hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.11. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.11 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.89 / 1.22) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, FC ST. Gallen are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC ST. Gallen offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 3.11 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 60% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates corroborate: FC ST. Gallen 83% | Lausanne 83% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC ST. Gallen vs Lausanne | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Kybunpark • Kick-off: Sunday 21 Nov 2021, 13:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC ST. Gallen 52% | Draw 24% | Lausanne 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 61% | xG FC ST. Gallen 1.89 / Lausanne 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: FC ST. Gallen attack 1.065 / def 1.115 | Lausanne attack 0.722 / def 1.345 | league avg home 1.321 / away 1.514 • Poisson stance: FC ST. Gallen (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.89
FC ST. Gallen xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Lausanne xG
61%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC ST. Gallen vs Lausanne kick off?
FC ST. Gallen vs Lausanne kicked off at 13:15 on Sunday 21 November 2021 at Kybunpark.
What was the final score in FC ST. Gallen vs Lausanne?
FC ST. Gallen 0 - 1 Lausanne.
Where is FC ST. Gallen vs Lausanne being played?
The match is being played at Kybunpark.
What competition is FC ST. Gallen vs Lausanne part of?
FC ST. Gallen vs Lausanne is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Super League (Switzerland).
Who is favourite to win FC ST. Gallen vs Lausanne?
Our statistical model gives FC ST. Gallen a 52% chance of winning, Lausanne a 24% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making FC ST. Gallen the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC ST. Gallen vs Lausanne?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both FC ST. Gallen and Lausanne will score (BTTS).
Will FC ST. Gallen vs Lausanne have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC ST. Gallen and Lausanne?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are FC ST. Gallen and Lausanne in?
FC ST. Gallen (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-W-L-W-W. Lausanne (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-W-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates FC ST. Gallen's attack at 1.06x the league average against Lausanne's defence at 1.34x — combine the two and it projects 1.89 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Lausanne's attack versus FC ST. Gallen's defence, projects 1.22 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 13/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC ST. Gallen Win
52%
1.92
24%
4.12
24%
4.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
1 – 0
8.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.89
FC ST. Gallen xG
Total xG
3.11
1.22
Lausanne xG
1.92
52%
Home win
4.12
24%
Draw
4.24
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.65
39%
BTTS No
2.55
Clean Sheet
30%
3.38
15%
6.63
Win to Nil
15%
6.48
4%
28.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 5.4 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 10.3 | 6.3 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 9.7 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 6.1 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.9 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC ST. Gallen vs Lausanne?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are FC ST. Gallen and Lausanne expected to score?
The model projects 1.89 expected goals for FC ST. Gallen and 1.22 for Lausanne, a combined total of 3.11.
How confident is the prediction model for FC ST. Gallen vs Lausanne?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
FC ST. Gallen's recent record stands at 4W 3D 6L from 13 games, a 1.15 PPG return, with L-W-L-W-W in the last five. The sample for FC ST. Gallen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Lausanne, meanwhile, have gone 1W 5D 7L across 13 games — 0.62 PPG, with L-W-L-D-L in their last five. The sample for Lausanne is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours FC ST. Gallen by 0.53 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Lausanne heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, FC ST. Gallen have managed 2W 3D 1L from 6 games — 1.50 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Lausanne's away record stands at 0W 2D 4L across 6 trips, a 0.33 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC ST. Gallen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
FC ST. Gallen are averaging 1.46 goals scored and 2.08 conceded per game recently; Lausanne are on 1.15 scored and 2.15 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC ST. Gallen have seen both teams score in 77% of their recent games; Lausanne in 85%.
Last 13 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC ST. Gallen
Blended
Lausanne
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC ST. Gallen and Lausanne in coming into this match?
FC ST. Gallen have gone 4W 3D 6L in their last 13 games (1.15 PPG), while Lausanne have gone 1W 5D 7L in their last 13 (0.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC ST. Gallen at home or Lausanne away?
FC ST. Gallen's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC ST. Gallen at home: 1.50 PPG; Lausanne away: 0.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 8 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 May 2022, when FC ST. Gallen won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FC ST. Gallen's record when hosting Lausanne specifically: 4W 0D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
FC ST. Gallen
2
Draws
1
Lausanne
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC ST. Gallen and Lausanne?
From 10 meetings on record, FC ST. Gallen have won 7, Lausanne have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did FC ST. Gallen and Lausanne last play each other?
They last met on 8 February 2026, when Lausanne 1-1 FC ST. Gallen.
Who has won more matches between FC ST. Gallen and Lausanne?
FC ST. Gallen have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
FC ST. Gallen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Lausanne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — FC ST. Gallen at 83%, Lausanne at 83%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (FC ST. Gallen) and 50% (Lausanne). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC ST. Gallen home games / Lausanne away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC ST. Gallen play Lausanne?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 83% of FC ST. Gallen's games and 83% of Lausanne's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC ST. Gallen vs Lausanne usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of FC ST. Gallen's matches and 50% of Lausanne's.
Do FC ST. Gallen and Lausanne tend to score early?
FC ST. Gallen have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Lausanne in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Lausanne defy the odds to beat FC ST. Gallen 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lausanne beat FC ST. Gallen 0-1 at Kybunpark, Regular Season - 14, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC ST. Gallen 1.89 xG and Lausanne 1.22 xG, a combined 3.11. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. FC ST. Gallen fell 1.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC ST. Gallen attack 1.06 / defence 1.11 against Lausanne attack 0.72 / defence 1.34, drawn from 13/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC ST. Gallen 52% | Draw 24% | Lausanne 24%, with FC ST. Gallen to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a Lausanne win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC ST. Gallen 69%, Lausanne 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 81%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC ST. Gallen's trading profile (13 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 77% of their matches — today it did not.
Lausanne's trading profile (13 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 85% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, FC ST. Gallen arrived the stronger side — 1.15 PPG against 0.62. Form was overturned, with Lausanne winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. FC ST. Gallen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.83 scoring average — below par going forward. Lausanne (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.17 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.