FC Sion 0-0 Servette FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Servette FC at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC Sion vs Servette FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade de Tourbillon plays host to FC Sion versus Servette FC in Super League, Regular Season - 3. Kick-off: Saturday 30 July 2022 at 19:30 UTC.
Form
FC Sion (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Super League fixtures this term — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 2.00 conceded. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. FC Sion have played only a handful of Super League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
FC Sion at Stade de Tourbillon this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 home games — 0.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Servette FC have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: D D D W D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Servette FC have played only a handful of Super League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Servette FC have gone 1W 2D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.40 for FC Sion, 1.00 for Servette FC — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading
FC Sion half-time and goal-timing data (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Servette FC half-time and goal-timing data (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC Sion 63% and Servette FC 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Sion 58% | Servette FC 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Sion 1.40 xG and Servette FC 1.56 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Sion attack 0.754 / defence 1.274 | Servette FC attack 0.990 / defence 1.135. League average goals — home 1.641 / away 1.236. FC Sion's attack strength of 0.754 is below the league average — the 1.40 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 38 FC Sion games / 38 Servette FC games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: FC Sion 32% | Draw 29% | Servette FC 39%. Fair-value odds: FC Sion 3.12 | Draw 3.45 | Servette FC 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 2.96. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.96 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.40 / 1.56) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Servette FC as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Servette FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.96 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 57% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: FC Sion 40% | Servette FC 60%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (38 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Sion vs Servette FC | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Stade de Tourbillon • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Jul 2022, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Sion 32% | Draw 29% | Servette FC 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 62% | xG FC Sion 1.40 / Servette FC 1.56 • Poisson strength factors: FC Sion attack 0.754 / def 1.274 | Servette FC attack 0.990 / def 1.135 | league avg home 1.641 / away 1.236 • Poisson stance: Servette FC (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
FC Sion xG
Expected Goals
1.56
Servette FC xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Sion vs Servette FC kick off?
FC Sion vs Servette FC kicked off at 19:30 on Saturday 30 July 2022 at Stade de Tourbillon.
What was the final score in FC Sion vs Servette FC?
FC Sion 0 - 0 Servette FC.
Where is FC Sion vs Servette FC being played?
The match is being played at Stade de Tourbillon.
What competition is FC Sion vs Servette FC part of?
FC Sion vs Servette FC is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Super League (Switzerland).
Who is favourite to win FC Sion vs Servette FC?
Our statistical model gives FC Sion a 32% chance of winning, Servette FC a 39% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Servette FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Sion vs Servette FC?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both FC Sion and Servette FC will score (BTTS).
Will FC Sion vs Servette FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Sion and Servette FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are FC Sion and Servette FC in?
FC Sion (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-W-D-W-L. Servette FC (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-D-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from FC Sion's attack rating (0.75) and Servette FC's defence rating (1.14), the model arrives at 1.40 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Servette FC's attack (0.99x) against FC Sion's defence (1.27x) — and the away total comes out at 1.56.
The sample (38/38 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.8%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 2-1 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Servette FC Win
32%
3.14
29%
3.41
39%
2.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
0 – 1
8.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
FC Sion xG
Total xG
2.96
1.56
Servette FC xG
3.14
32%
Home win
3.41
29%
Draw
2.58
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.64
Clean Sheet
21%
4.76
25%
4.07
Win to Nil
7%
14.94
10%
10.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 8.1 | 6.3 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 11.3 | 8.8 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 7.9 | 6.2 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.7 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Sion vs Servette FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are FC Sion and Servette FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for FC Sion and 1.56 for Servette FC, a combined total of 2.96.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Sion vs Servette FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
FC Sion's recent record stands at 12W 8D 18L from 38 games, a 1.16 PPG return, with L-W-D-W-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for FC Sion, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Servette FC, meanwhile, have gone 13W 9D 16L across 38 games — 1.26 PPG, with D-D-D-W-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Servette FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.16 PPG for FC Sion against 1.26 for Servette FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, FC Sion have managed 6W 4D 9L from 19 games — 1.16 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Servette FC's away record stands at 5W 4D 10L across 19 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
FC Sion are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.89 conceded per game recently; Servette FC are on 1.37 scored and 1.76 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Sion have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games; Servette FC in 61%.
Last 38 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Sion
Early Season
Servette FC
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Sion and Servette FC in coming into this match?
FC Sion have gone 12W 8D 18L in their last 38 games (1.16 PPG), while Servette FC have gone 13W 9D 16L in their last 38 (1.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Sion at home or Servette FC away?
FC Sion's home record (1.16 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Sion at home: 1.16 PPG; Servette FC away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since July 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 28 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Servette FC won 5-0 on 13 May 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC Sion have gone 0W 4D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Servette FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
0
FC Sion
7
Draws
3
Servette FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Sion and Servette FC?
From 10 meetings on record, FC Sion have won 0, Servette FC have won 3, and 7 have been drawn.
When did FC Sion and Servette FC last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2026, when Servette FC 0-0 FC Sion.
Who has won more matches between FC Sion and Servette FC?
Servette FC have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
FC Sion are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
Servette FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Sion 47%, Servette FC 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 53% for FC Sion and 68% for Servette FC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 26% and 42% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC Sion have failed to score in 32% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Sion home games / Servette FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Sion play Servette FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 47% of FC Sion's games and 68% of Servette FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Sion vs Servette FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 53% of FC Sion's matches and 68% of Servette FC's.
Do FC Sion and Servette FC tend to score early?
FC Sion have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Servette FC in 84% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at FC Sion's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Sion and Servette FC finished level at 0-0 at Stade de Tourbillon, Regular Season - 3, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Sion 1.40 xG and Servette FC 1.56 xG, a combined 2.96. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. FC Sion fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Servette FC landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Sion attack 0.75 / defence 1.27 against Servette FC attack 0.99 / defence 1.14, drawn from 38/38 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it FC Sion 32% | Draw 29% | Servette FC 39%, with Servette FC to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 82% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Sion 58%, Servette FC 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Sion's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
Servette FC's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC Sion 1.16 PPG, Servette FC 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. FC Sion (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.11 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.53 average — tighter than their form line. Servette FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.37 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.16 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.