FC Sion 1-2 Servette FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Servette FC at 72%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC Sion vs Servette FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade de Tourbillon plays host to FC Sion versus Servette FC in Super League, Regular Season - 1. Kick-off: Sunday 25 July 2021 at 15:30 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Sion 0.91 xG and Servette FC 2.64 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Sion attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Servette FC attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 0.929 / away 2.705. Data: 0 FC Sion games / 0 Servette FC games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: FC Sion 8% | Draw 19% | Servette FC 72%. Fair-value odds: FC Sion 12.50 | Draw 5.26 | Servette FC 1.39. The model has a clear lean to Servette FC (72%) — a 64pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 3.55. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.55 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Servette FC as the most likely outcome at 72% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.55 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 69% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Sion vs Servette FC | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Stade de Tourbillon • Kick-off: Sunday 25 Jul 2021, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Sion 8% | Draw 19% | Servette FC 72% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% | BTTS 57% | xG FC Sion 0.91 / Servette FC 2.64 • Poisson strength factors: FC Sion attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Servette FC attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 0.929 / away 2.705 • Poisson stance: Servette FC (72%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.91
FC Sion xG
Expected Goals
2.64
Servette FC xG
57%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
47%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Sion vs Servette FC kick off?
FC Sion vs Servette FC kicked off at 15:30 on Sunday 25 July 2021 at Stade de Tourbillon.
What was the final score in FC Sion vs Servette FC?
FC Sion 1 - 2 Servette FC.
Where is FC Sion vs Servette FC being played?
The match is being played at Stade de Tourbillon.
What competition is FC Sion vs Servette FC part of?
FC Sion vs Servette FC is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Super League (Switzerland).
Who is favourite to win FC Sion vs Servette FC?
Our statistical model gives FC Sion a 8% chance of winning, Servette FC a 72% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Servette FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Sion vs Servette FC?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both FC Sion and Servette FC will score (BTTS).
Will FC Sion vs Servette FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Sion and Servette FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are FC Sion and Servette FC in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from FC Sion's attack rating (0.85) and Servette FC's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 0.91 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Servette FC's attack (0.85x) against FC Sion's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 2.64.
These ratings are built from 0/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-2 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.0%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.1%), 0-3 (8.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Servette FC Win
8%
11.83
19%
5.18
72%
1.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 2
10.0%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
0 – 3
8.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.91
FC Sion xG
Total xG
3.55
2.64
Servette FC xG
11.83
8%
Home win
5.18
19%
Draw
1.38
72%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
47%
Over 3.5
2.13
53%
Under 3.5
1.89
28%
Over 4.5
3.57
72%
Under 4.5
1.39
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.74
43%
BTTS No
2.35
Clean Sheet
7%
14.07
40%
2.48
Win to Nil
1%
166.50
29%
3.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.9 | 7.6 | 10.0 | 8.8 | 5.8 | 3.1 |
| 1 | 2.6 | 6.9 | 9.1 | 8.0 | 5.3 | 2.8 |
| 2 | 1.2 | 3.1 | 4.1 | 3.6 | 2.4 | 1.3 |
| 3 | 0.4 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | – | – | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Sion vs Servette FC?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.0%.
How many goals are FC Sion and Servette FC expected to score?
The model projects 0.91 expected goals for FC Sion and 2.64 for Servette FC, a combined total of 3.55.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Sion vs Servette FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 72%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
Last 0 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Sion
Pre-Season
Servette FC
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since July 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 28 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Servette FC won 5-0 on 13 May 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC Sion have gone 0W 4D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Servette FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
0
FC Sion
7
Draws
3
Servette FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Sion and Servette FC?
From 10 meetings on record, FC Sion have won 0, Servette FC have won 3, and 7 have been drawn.
When did FC Sion and Servette FC last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2026, when Servette FC 0-0 FC Sion.
Who has won more matches between FC Sion and Servette FC?
Servette FC have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Sion home games / Servette FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as Servette FC edge out FC Sion 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Servette FC beat FC Sion 1-2 at Stade de Tourbillon, Regular Season - 1, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Sion 0.91 xG and Servette FC 2.64 xG, a combined 3.55. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Sion attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Servette FC attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 0/0 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Sion 8% | Draw 19% | Servette FC 72%, with Servette FC to win its most likely call at 72%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 47% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.