FC Sion 1-2 FC Basel 1893 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC Basel 1893 at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC Sion vs FC Basel 1893 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
FC Sion host FC Basel 1893 at Stade de Tourbillon in Super League, Regular Season - 30. Kick-off is scheduled for Thursday 27 April 2023 at 19:30 UTC.
Form Guide
FC Sion — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Super League outings this season, averaging 0.90 points per game. Last five: L W D W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Stade de Tourbillon, FC Sion have gone 1W 2D 7L this season (10 games, 0.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Super League games this season, FC Basel 1893 have recorded 3W 5D 2L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
FC Basel 1893 away from home this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.90 PPG (FC Sion) versus 1.40 (FC Basel 1893). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, FC Sion have won 0, FC Basel 1893 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 11 Feb 2023, ended 1–3 with FC Basel 1893 winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
FC Sion in-play tendencies (65 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
FC Basel 1893 in-play tendencies (65 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC Sion 62% and FC Basel 1893 58% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Sion 58% | FC Basel 1893 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Sion 1.08 xG and FC Basel 1893 1.55 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Sion attack 0.796 / defence 1.444 | FC Basel 1893 attack 0.874 / defence 0.838. League average goals — home 1.621 / away 1.226. FC Sion's attack strength of 0.796 is below the league average — the 1.08 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 65 FC Sion games / 65 FC Basel 1893 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Sion 24% | Draw 31% | FC Basel 1893 45%. Fair-value odds: FC Sion 4.17 | Draw 3.23 | FC Basel 1893 2.22. FC Basel 1893 hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.63. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.63 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates FC Basel 1893 as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC Basel 1893 offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.63 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates are neutral: FC Sion 60% | FC Basel 1893 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Sion vs FC Basel 1893 | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Stade de Tourbillon • Kick-off: Thursday 27 Apr 2023, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Sion 24% | Draw 31% | FC Basel 1893 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 55% | xG FC Sion 1.08 / FC Basel 1893 1.55 • Poisson strength factors: FC Sion attack 0.796 / def 1.444 | FC Basel 1893 attack 0.874 / def 0.838 | league avg home 1.621 / away 1.226 • Poisson stance: FC Basel 1893 (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.08
FC Sion xG
Expected Goals
1.55
FC Basel 1893 xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Sion vs FC Basel 1893 kick off?
FC Sion vs FC Basel 1893 kicked off at 19:30 on Thursday 27 April 2023 at Stade de Tourbillon.
What was the final score in FC Sion vs FC Basel 1893?
FC Sion 1 - 2 FC Basel 1893.
Where is FC Sion vs FC Basel 1893 being played?
The match is being played at Stade de Tourbillon.
What competition is FC Sion vs FC Basel 1893 part of?
FC Sion vs FC Basel 1893 is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Super League (Switzerland).
Who is favourite to win FC Sion vs FC Basel 1893?
Our statistical model gives FC Sion a 24% chance of winning, FC Basel 1893 a 45% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making FC Basel 1893 the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Sion vs FC Basel 1893?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both FC Sion and FC Basel 1893 will score (BTTS).
Will FC Sion vs FC Basel 1893 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Sion and FC Basel 1893?
Record (2 meetings): FC Sion 0W | Draws 1 | FC Basel 1893 1W.
What form are FC Sion and FC Basel 1893 in?
FC Sion (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-W-D-W-L. FC Basel 1893 (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
FC Sion's attacking strength (0.80x league average) is weighed against FC Basel 1893's defensive record (0.84x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.08. The same calculation in reverse, FC Basel 1893's attack versus FC Sion's defence, projects 1.55 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 65/65 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.6%. Close behind: 0-1 (9.6%), 1-2 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Basel 1893 Win
24%
4.19
31%
3.26
45%
2.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.2%
Away win
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.08
FC Sion xG
Total xG
2.63
1.55
FC Basel 1893 xG
4.19
24%
Home win
3.26
31%
Draw
2.20
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.21
Clean Sheet
21%
4.70
34%
2.95
Win to Nil
5%
19.70
15%
6.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 11.2 | 8.6 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 12.1 | 9.3 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 6.5 | 5.1 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.4 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Sion vs FC Basel 1893?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are FC Sion and FC Basel 1893 expected to score?
The model projects 1.08 expected goals for FC Sion and 1.55 for FC Basel 1893, a combined total of 2.63.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Sion vs FC Basel 1893?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
FC Sion come into this having played 65 games, going 18W 17D 30L for 1.09 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-W-L.
On the other side, FC Basel 1893 sit at 1.51 PPG from 65 outings (23W 29D 13L), a run that reads L-W-D-D-L across their last five.
FC Basel 1893 carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.42 PPG clear of FC Sion — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
FC Sion's home form reads 8W 8D 16L across 32 games on their own ground, a 1.00 PPG return.
Away from home, FC Basel 1893 have taken 1.38 points per game from 32 outings (10W 14D 8L).
The Goals Picture
FC Sion are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 1.88 conceded per game recently; FC Basel 1893 are on 1.65 scored and 1.17 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Sion have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 65 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Sion
Current Season
FC Basel 1893
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Sion and FC Basel 1893 in coming into this match?
FC Sion have gone 18W 17D 30L in their last 65 games (1.09 PPG), while FC Basel 1893 have gone 23W 29D 13L in their last 65 (1.51 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Sion at home or FC Basel 1893 away?
FC Basel 1893's away record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Sion at home: 1.00 PPG; FC Basel 1893 away: 1.38 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between FC Sion and FC Basel 1893 runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 26 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
FC Sion go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Jan 2025, when FC Basel 1893 won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FC Sion's record when hosting FC Basel 1893 specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
FC Sion
3
Draws
5
FC Basel 1893
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Sion and FC Basel 1893?
From 10 meetings on record, FC Sion have won 2, FC Basel 1893 have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did FC Sion and FC Basel 1893 last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2026, when FC Basel 1893 0-2 FC Sion.
Who has won more matches between FC Sion and FC Basel 1893?
FC Basel 1893 have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
FC Sion are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
FC Basel 1893 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Sion 53%, FC Basel 1893 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (FC Sion) and 44% (FC Basel 1893).
On the defensive side: FC Basel 1893 in 34%; FC Sion have failed to score in 31% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Sion home games / FC Basel 1893 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Sion play FC Basel 1893?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of FC Sion's recent matches and 53% of FC Basel 1893's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FC Sion vs FC Basel 1893 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of FC Sion's recent games and 44% of FC Basel 1893's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FC Sion and FC Basel 1893 tend to score early?
FC Sion have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, FC Basel 1893 in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as FC Basel 1893 edge out FC Sion 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Basel 1893 beat FC Sion 1-2 at Stade de Tourbillon, Regular Season - 30, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Sion 1.08 xG and FC Basel 1893 1.55 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Sion attack 0.80 / defence 1.44 against FC Basel 1893 attack 0.87 / defence 0.84, drawn from 65/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Sion 24% | Draw 31% | FC Basel 1893 45%, with FC Basel 1893 to win its most likely call at 45%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Sion 58%, FC Basel 1893 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Sion's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
FC Basel 1893's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, FC Basel 1893 arrived the stronger side — 1.51 PPG against 1.09. That form edge translated into the three points.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.