FC Basel 1893 0-0 Yverdon Sport – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates FC Basel 1893 at 66% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as FC Basel 1893 face Yverdon Sport.

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Analysis

Yverdon Sport make the trip to St. Jakob-Park to face FC Basel 1893 in Super League (Relegation Round - 5). The match kicks off on Tuesday 21 May 2024 at 20:30 UK time.

Form

FC Basel 1893 (all games): 4W 5D 1L across their last 10 — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D D D W W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.

In front of their own supporters, FC Basel 1893 have posted 4W 3D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.

Yverdon Sport's record over their last 10 games: 4W 1D 5L (1.30 PPG). Last five: W W L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).

When travelling, Yverdon Sport have posted 0W 1D 9L from their last 10 away outings — 0.10 PPG. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.10 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.70 PPG for FC Basel 1893 against 1.30 for Yverdon Sport. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

Head-to-Head

Neither side has dominated the 3 H2H matches in our data: 2 wins for FC Basel 1893, 1 for Yverdon Sport and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 3 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.3 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 24 Feb 2024, ended FC Basel 1893 2–0 Yverdon Sport — a FC Basel 1893 win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.3 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading

FC Basel 1893 half-time and goal-timing data (last 37 games, 18 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 61% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).

Yverdon Sport half-time and goal-timing data (last 37 games, 18 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Basel 1893 54% versus Yverdon Sport 65%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Basel 1893 49% | Yverdon Sport 68%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects FC Basel 1893 2.00 xG and Yverdon Sport 0.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Basel 1893 attack 0.935 / defence 1.021 | Yverdon Sport attack 0.700 / defence 1.478. League average goals — home 1.451 / away 1.108. Yverdon Sport's defence rating of 1.478 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing FC Basel 1893's projected output up. Yverdon Sport's attack rating of 0.700 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.79. Data: built from FC Basel 1893's last 69 games and Yverdon Sport's last 33.

Result probabilities: FC Basel 1893 66% | Draw 20% | Yverdon Sport 14%. Fair-value odds: FC Basel 1893 1.52 | Draw 4.90 | Yverdon Sport 7.20. The model has a clear lean to FC Basel 1893 (66%) — a 46pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS Yes probability 47% | Total xG 2.80. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.80 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS No at 53% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is FC Basel 1893 at 66% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

Poisson projects 2.80 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 3.3 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on No. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: FC Basel 1893 50% (last 10 home games) | Yverdon Sport 60% (last 10 away games).

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