FC Basel 1893 3-1 FC Thun – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC Basel 1893 at 35%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC Basel 1893 vs FC Thun fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
FC Basel 1893 host FC Thun at St. Jakob-Park in Super League, Championship Group - 35. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 2 May 2026 at 19:30 UTC.
Form Guide
FC Basel 1893 — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Super League outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: W W D L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at St. Jakob-Park, FC Basel 1893 have gone 3W 5D 2L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Super League games this season, FC Thun have recorded 6W 1D 3L from 10 outings — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W L L W L. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.00. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
FC Thun away from home this season: 7W 0D 3L from 10 away games — 2.10 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form points away from home here. FC Thun's 1.90 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of FC Basel 1893's 1.40 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, FC Basel 1893 have won 1, FC Thun 2, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 3.7 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 18 Apr 2026, ended 1–3 with FC Thun winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.7 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
FC Basel 1893 trading profile (34 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
FC Thun trading profile (34 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 81% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC Basel 1893 62% and FC Thun 71% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (FC Basel 1893 59% | FC Thun 76%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Basel 1893 1.39 xG and FC Thun 1.37 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Basel 1893 attack 0.970 / defence 0.882 | FC Thun attack 1.089 / defence 0.840. League average goals — home 1.709 / away 1.428. Data: 66 FC Basel 1893 games / 33 FC Thun games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Basel 1893 35% | Draw 30% | FC Thun 34%. Fair-value odds: FC Basel 1893 2.86 | Draw 3.33 | FC Thun 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.76. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.76 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates FC Basel 1893 as the most likely outcome at 35% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form FC Thun (1.90 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC Basel 1893 offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.76 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.7 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates corroborate: FC Basel 1893 70% | FC Thun 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Basel 1893 vs FC Thun | Competition: Super League, Championship Group - 35 | Venue: St. Jakob-Park • Kick-off: Saturday 2 May 2026, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Basel 1893 35% | Draw 30% | FC Thun 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 58% | xG FC Basel 1893 1.39 / FC Thun 1.37 • Poisson strength factors: FC Basel 1893 attack 0.970 / def 0.882 | FC Thun attack 1.089 / def 0.840 | league avg home 1.709 / away 1.428 • Poisson stance: FC Basel 1893 (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
FC Basel 1893 xG
Expected Goals
1.37
FC Thun xG
58%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Basel 1893 vs FC Thun kick off?
FC Basel 1893 vs FC Thun kicked off at 19:30 on Saturday 2 May 2026 at St. Jakob-Park.
What was the final score in FC Basel 1893 vs FC Thun?
FC Basel 1893 3 - 1 FC Thun.
Where is FC Basel 1893 vs FC Thun being played?
The match is being played at St. Jakob-Park.
What competition is FC Basel 1893 vs FC Thun part of?
FC Basel 1893 vs FC Thun is a Championship Group - 35 fixture in the Super League (Switzerland).
Who is favourite to win FC Basel 1893 vs FC Thun?
Our statistical model gives FC Basel 1893 a 35% chance of winning, FC Thun a 34% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making FC Basel 1893 the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Basel 1893 vs FC Thun?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both FC Basel 1893 and FC Thun will score (BTTS).
Will FC Basel 1893 vs FC Thun have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Basel 1893 and FC Thun?
Record (3 meetings): FC Basel 1893 1W | Draws 0 | FC Thun 2W.
What form are FC Basel 1893 and FC Thun in?
FC Basel 1893 (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-W-D-L-L. FC Thun (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from FC Basel 1893's attack rating (0.97) and FC Thun's defence rating (0.84), the model arrives at 1.39 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, FC Thun's attack versus FC Basel 1893's defence, projects 1.37 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 66/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.4%), 1-2 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Basel 1893 Win
35%
2.83
30%
3.30
34%
2.91
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
8.8%
Home win
0 – 1
8.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
FC Basel 1893 xG
Total xG
2.76
1.37
FC Thun xG
2.83
35%
Home win
3.30
30%
Draw
2.91
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.71
42%
BTTS No
2.41
Clean Sheet
25%
3.94
25%
4.02
Win to Nil
9%
11.15
9%
11.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 8.7 | 5.9 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 12.0 | 8.3 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 8.4 | 5.7 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.9 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Basel 1893 vs FC Thun?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are FC Basel 1893 and FC Thun expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for FC Basel 1893 and 1.37 for FC Thun, a combined total of 2.76.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Basel 1893 vs FC Thun?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 34 outings, FC Basel 1893 have picked up 1.56 PPG on a 15W 8D 11L record — W-W-D-L-L across the most recent five.
FC Thun's form line: 24W 2D 8L from 34 games, 2.18 PPG, last five W-L-L-W-L.
Put side by side, FC Thun are the form team by 0.62 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against FC Basel 1893.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, FC Basel 1893 have posted 1.50 PPG from 16 outings (6W 6D 4L).
On the road, FC Thun have gone 12W 0D 4L from 16 away games — 2.25 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Thun come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
FC Basel 1893 are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; FC Thun are on 2.21 scored and 1.12 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Basel 1893 have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; FC Thun in 71%.
Last 34 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Basel 1893
Current Season
FC Thun
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Basel 1893 and FC Thun in coming into this match?
FC Basel 1893 have gone 15W 8D 11L in their last 34 games (1.56 PPG), while FC Thun have gone 24W 2D 8L in their last 34 (2.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Basel 1893 at home or FC Thun away?
FC Thun's away record (2.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Basel 1893 at home: 1.50 PPG; FC Thun away: 2.25 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between FC Basel 1893 and FC Thun runs to 5 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 9 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
FC Basel 1893 go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
FC Basel 1893's record when hosting FC Thun specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
3
FC Basel 1893
0
Draws
2
FC Thun
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Basel 1893 and FC Thun?
From 5 meetings on record, FC Basel 1893 have won 3, FC Thun have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did FC Basel 1893 and FC Thun last play each other?
They last met on 9 August 2026, when FC Basel 1893 4-2 FC Thun.
Who has won more matches between FC Basel 1893 and FC Thun?
FC Basel 1893 have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
FC Basel 1893 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
FC Thun are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Basel 1893 56%, FC Thun 69% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 44% for FC Basel 1893 and 81% for FC Thun. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 19% and 31% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC Basel 1893 keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Basel 1893 home games / FC Thun away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Basel 1893 play FC Thun?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of FC Basel 1893's games and 69% of FC Thun's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Basel 1893 vs FC Thun usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 44% of FC Basel 1893's matches and 81% of FC Thun's.
Do FC Basel 1893 and FC Thun tend to score early?
FC Basel 1893 have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, FC Thun in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
FC Basel 1893 cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over FC Thun.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Basel 1893 beat FC Thun 3-1 at St. Jakob-Park, Championship Group - 35, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Basel 1893 1.39 xG and FC Thun 1.37 xG, a combined 2.76. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. FC Basel 1893 beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Basel 1893 attack 0.97 / defence 0.88 against FC Thun attack 1.09 / defence 0.84, drawn from 66/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Basel 1893 35% | Draw 30% | FC Thun 34%, with FC Basel 1893 to win its most likely call at 35%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Basel 1893 59%, FC Thun 76%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Basel 1893's trading profile (34 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
FC Thun's trading profile (34 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, FC Thun arrived the stronger side — 2.18 PPG against 1.56. Form was overturned, with FC Basel 1893 winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. FC Basel 1893 (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.44 average — above their attacking norm. FC Thun (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.06 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.06 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.