FC Basel 1893 3-1 FC Sion – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC Basel 1893 at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC Basel 1893 vs FC Sion fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
FC Basel 1893 host FC Sion at St. Jakob-Park in Super League, Regular Season - 20. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 11 February 2023 at 19:30 UTC.
Form Guide
FC Basel 1893 — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Super League outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: W L D L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for FC Basel 1893, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at St. Jakob-Park, FC Basel 1893 have gone 4W 4D 2L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — FC Basel 1893 are significantly better at St. Jakob-Park than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, FC Sion stand at 1W 4D 5L from 10 Super League matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D L L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for FC Sion, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Sion's form when playing away from home: 4W 4D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.60 exceeds their overall 0.70 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.00 PPG (FC Basel 1893) versus 0.70 (FC Sion). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. FC Basel 1893 register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, FC Sion in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for FC Basel 1893, 0 for FC Sion and 1 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 0.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 6 Nov 2022, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
FC Basel 1893 trading profile (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 61% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
FC Sion trading profile (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Basel 1893 58% versus FC Sion 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Basel 1893 47% | FC Sion 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Basel 1893 1.57 xG and FC Sion 1.47 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Basel 1893 attack 1.014 / defence 1.022 | FC Sion attack 1.108 / defence 0.979. League average goals — home 1.583 / away 1.302. Data: 55 FC Basel 1893 games / 55 FC Sion games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Basel 1893 39% | Draw 26% | FC Sion 35%. Fair-value odds: FC Basel 1893 2.56 | Draw 3.85 | FC Sion 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.04. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.04 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.57 / 1.47) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, FC Basel 1893 are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC Basel 1893 offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.04 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 59% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: FC Basel 1893 60% | FC Sion 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Basel 1893 vs FC Sion | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: St. Jakob-Park • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Feb 2023, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Basel 1893 39% | Draw 26% | FC Sion 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 62% | xG FC Basel 1893 1.57 / FC Sion 1.47 • Poisson strength factors: FC Basel 1893 attack 1.014 / def 1.022 | FC Sion attack 1.108 / def 0.979 | league avg home 1.583 / away 1.302 • Poisson stance: FC Basel 1893 (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.57
FC Basel 1893 xG
Expected Goals
1.47
FC Sion xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Basel 1893 vs FC Sion kick off?
FC Basel 1893 vs FC Sion kicked off at 19:30 on Saturday 11 February 2023 at St. Jakob-Park.
What was the final score in FC Basel 1893 vs FC Sion?
FC Basel 1893 3 - 1 FC Sion.
Where is FC Basel 1893 vs FC Sion being played?
The match is being played at St. Jakob-Park.
What competition is FC Basel 1893 vs FC Sion part of?
FC Basel 1893 vs FC Sion is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Super League (Switzerland).
Who is favourite to win FC Basel 1893 vs FC Sion?
Our statistical model gives FC Basel 1893 a 39% chance of winning, FC Sion a 35% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making FC Basel 1893 the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Basel 1893 vs FC Sion?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both FC Basel 1893 and FC Sion will score (BTTS).
Will FC Basel 1893 vs FC Sion have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Basel 1893 and FC Sion?
Record (1 meetings): FC Basel 1893 0W | Draws 1 | FC Sion 0W.
What form are FC Basel 1893 and FC Sion in?
FC Basel 1893 (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-D-L-L. FC Sion (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from FC Basel 1893's attack rating (1.01) and FC Sion's defence rating (0.98), the model arrives at 1.57 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, FC Sion's attack versus FC Basel 1893's defence, projects 1.47 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 55/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 1-2 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Basel 1893 Win
39%
2.54
26%
3.91
35%
2.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
1 – 2
8.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.57
FC Basel 1893 xG
Total xG
3.04
1.47
FC Sion xG
2.54
39%
Home win
3.91
26%
Draw
2.85
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.62
Clean Sheet
23%
4.37
21%
4.81
Win to Nil
9%
11.11
7%
13.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 7.0 | 5.2 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 11.0 | 8.1 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 8.7 | 6.4 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 4.5 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Basel 1893 vs FC Sion?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are FC Basel 1893 and FC Sion expected to score?
The model projects 1.57 expected goals for FC Basel 1893 and 1.47 for FC Sion, a combined total of 3.04.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Basel 1893 vs FC Sion?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
FC Basel 1893 come into this having played 55 games, going 20W 24D 11L for 1.53 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-L-L. The sample for FC Basel 1893 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, FC Sion sit at 1.13 PPG from 55 outings (16W 14D 25L), a run that reads D-L-L-D-L across their last five. The sample for FC Sion is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC Basel 1893 carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.40 PPG clear of FC Sion — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
FC Basel 1893's home form reads 11W 12D 4L across 27 games on their own ground, a 1.67 PPG return.
Away from home, FC Sion have taken 1.19 points per game from 27 outings (8W 8D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Basel 1893 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
FC Basel 1893 are averaging 1.71 goals scored and 1.15 conceded per game recently; FC Sion are on 1.31 scored and 1.84 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Sion in 60%.
Last 55 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Basel 1893
Blended
FC Sion
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Basel 1893 and FC Sion in coming into this match?
FC Basel 1893 have gone 20W 24D 11L in their last 55 games (1.53 PPG), while FC Sion have gone 16W 14D 25L in their last 55 (1.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Basel 1893 at home or FC Sion away?
FC Basel 1893's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Basel 1893 at home: 1.67 PPG; FC Sion away: 1.19 PPG.
Have FC Basel 1893 or FC Sion been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC Basel 1893 have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, FC Sion in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 26 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
FC Sion go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Jan 2025, when FC Basel 1893 won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FC Basel 1893's record when hosting FC Sion specifically: 3W 2D 1L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
FC Basel 1893
3
Draws
2
FC Sion
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Basel 1893 and FC Sion?
From 10 meetings on record, FC Basel 1893 have won 5, FC Sion have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did FC Basel 1893 and FC Sion last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2026, when FC Basel 1893 0-2 FC Sion.
Who has won more matches between FC Basel 1893 and FC Sion?
FC Basel 1893 have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
FC Basel 1893 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
FC Sion are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — FC Basel 1893 at 63%, FC Sion at 70%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (FC Basel 1893) and 59% (FC Sion). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 41% and 41% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Basel 1893 home games / FC Sion away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Basel 1893 play FC Sion?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of FC Basel 1893's games and 70% of FC Sion's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Basel 1893 vs FC Sion usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 52% of FC Basel 1893's matches and 59% of FC Sion's.
Do FC Basel 1893 and FC Sion tend to score early?
FC Basel 1893 have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, FC Sion in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
FC Basel 1893 cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over FC Sion.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Basel 1893 beat FC Sion 3-1 at St. Jakob-Park, Regular Season - 20, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Basel 1893 1.57 xG and FC Sion 1.47 xG, a combined 3.04. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. FC Basel 1893 beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Basel 1893 attack 1.01 / defence 1.02 against FC Sion attack 1.11 / defence 0.98, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Basel 1893 39% | Draw 26% | FC Sion 35%, with FC Basel 1893 to win its most likely call at 39%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Basel 1893 47%, FC Sion 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Basel 1893's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
FC Sion's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, FC Basel 1893 arrived the stronger side — 1.53 PPG against 1.13. Form held, and they took the win. FC Basel 1893 (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.96 average — above their attacking norm. FC Sion (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.