FC Basel 1893 1-1 FC Sion – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates FC Basel 1893 at 47% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC Basel 1893 vs FC Sion encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
FC Basel 1893 host FC Sion at St. Jakob-Park in Super League, Regular Season - 20. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 18 January 2026 at 15:30 UTC.
Form Guide
FC Basel 1893 — All Games: 3W 5D 2L from 10 Super League outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: D W D W D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for FC Basel 1893, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at St. Jakob-Park, FC Basel 1893 have gone 5W 3D 2L this season (10 games, 1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at St. Jakob-Park.
Looking at all fixtures this season, FC Sion stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Super League matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D W W L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.30. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for FC Sion, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Sion's form when playing away from home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.40 PPG (FC Basel 1893) versus 1.50 (FC Sion). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of FC Basel 1893: 5 wins from 6 previous clashes against 0 for FC Sion, with 1 draws across those contests.
The 6 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 2.8 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 30 Aug 2025, ended 1–0 with FC Basel 1893 winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both FC Basel 1893 and goals. The home side's 5 wins from 6 meetings, combined with an average of 2.8 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Data
FC Basel 1893 trading profile (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; they lead at the break 49% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
FC Sion trading profile (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Basel 1893 60% versus FC Sion 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Basel 1893 61% | FC Sion 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Basel 1893 1.38 xG and FC Sion 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Basel 1893 attack 0.819 / defence 0.643 | FC Sion attack 0.961 / defence 1.023. League average goals — home 1.650 / away 1.522. FC Basel 1893's defence rating of 0.643 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 52 FC Basel 1893 games / 52 FC Sion games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Basel 1893 47% | Draw 27% | FC Sion 26%. Fair-value odds: FC Basel 1893 2.13 | Draw 3.70 | FC Sion 3.85. FC Basel 1893 hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.32. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.32 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, FC Basel 1893 are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC Basel 1893 offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.32 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 41% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 46% on No. Form rates are neutral: FC Basel 1893 40% | FC Sion 70%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Basel 1893 vs FC Sion | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: St. Jakob-Park • Kick-off: Sunday 18 Jan 2026, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Basel 1893 47% | Draw 27% | FC Sion 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 46% | xG FC Basel 1893 1.38 / FC Sion 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: FC Basel 1893 attack 0.819 / def 0.643 | FC Sion attack 0.961 / def 1.023 | league avg home 1.650 / away 1.522 • Poisson stance: FC Basel 1893 (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
FC Basel 1893 xG
Expected Goals
0.94
FC Sion xG
46%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Basel 1893 vs FC Sion kick off?
FC Basel 1893 vs FC Sion kicked off at 15:30 on Sunday 18 January 2026 at St. Jakob-Park.
What was the final score in FC Basel 1893 vs FC Sion?
FC Basel 1893 1 - 1 FC Sion.
Where is FC Basel 1893 vs FC Sion being played?
The match is being played at St. Jakob-Park.
What competition is FC Basel 1893 vs FC Sion part of?
FC Basel 1893 vs FC Sion is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Super League (Switzerland).
Who is favourite to win FC Basel 1893 vs FC Sion?
Our statistical model gives FC Basel 1893 a 47% chance of winning, FC Sion a 26% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making FC Basel 1893 the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Basel 1893 vs FC Sion?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both FC Basel 1893 and FC Sion will score (BTTS).
Will FC Basel 1893 vs FC Sion have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Basel 1893 and FC Sion?
Record (6 meetings): FC Basel 1893 5W | Draws 1 | FC Sion 0W.
What form are FC Basel 1893 and FC Sion in?
FC Basel 1893 (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-D-W-D. FC Sion (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from FC Basel 1893's attack rating (0.82) and FC Sion's defence rating (1.02), the model arrives at 1.38 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, FC Sion's attack versus FC Basel 1893's defence, projects 0.94 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.9%), 0-0 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Basel 1893 Win
47%
2.12
27%
3.66
26%
3.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
9.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
FC Basel 1893 xG
Total xG
2.32
0.94
FC Sion xG
2.12
47%
Home win
3.66
27%
Draw
3.90
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.19
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
39%
2.57
25%
3.98
Win to Nil
18%
5.45
6%
15.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.8 | 9.2 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.5 | 12.7 | 6.0 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 8.8 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 4.1 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Basel 1893 vs FC Sion?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are FC Basel 1893 and FC Sion expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for FC Basel 1893 and 0.94 for FC Sion, a combined total of 2.32.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Basel 1893 vs FC Sion?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
FC Basel 1893 come into this having played 57 games, going 31W 12D 14L for 1.84 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-D-W-D. The sample for FC Basel 1893 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, FC Sion sit at 1.30 PPG from 57 outings (19W 17D 21L), a run that reads D-W-W-L-W across their last five. The sample for FC Sion is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC Basel 1893 carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.54 PPG clear of FC Sion — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
FC Basel 1893's home form reads 17W 5D 6L across 28 games on their own ground, a 2.00 PPG return.
Away from home, FC Sion have taken 0.89 points per game from 28 outings (6W 7D 15L). That's a step down from their 1.30 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of FC Sion's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Basel 1893 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
FC Basel 1893 are averaging 2.09 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; FC Sion are on 1.33 scored and 1.40 conceded.
Last 57 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Basel 1893
Blended
FC Sion
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Basel 1893 and FC Sion in coming into this match?
FC Basel 1893 have gone 31W 12D 14L in their last 57 games (1.84 PPG), while FC Sion have gone 19W 17D 21L in their last 57 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Basel 1893 at home or FC Sion away?
FC Basel 1893's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Basel 1893 at home: 2.00 PPG; FC Sion away: 0.89 PPG.
Have FC Basel 1893 or FC Sion been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC Basel 1893 have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, FC Sion in 19%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to February 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 3 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
FC Sion go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Jan 2025, when FC Basel 1893 won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FC Basel 1893's record when hosting FC Sion specifically: 3W 1D 2L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
FC Basel 1893
2
Draws
3
FC Sion
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Basel 1893 and FC Sion?
From 10 meetings on record, FC Basel 1893 have won 5, FC Sion have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did FC Basel 1893 and FC Sion last play each other?
They last met on 3 September 2026, when FC Basel 1893 1-2 FC Sion.
Who has won more matches between FC Basel 1893 and FC Sion?
FC Basel 1893 have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
FC Basel 1893 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
FC Sion are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Basel 1893 50%, FC Sion 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (FC Basel 1893) and 50% (FC Sion).
On the defensive side: FC Basel 1893 keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; FC Sion in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Basel 1893 home games / FC Sion away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Basel 1893 play FC Sion?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of FC Basel 1893's games and 61% of FC Sion's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Basel 1893 vs FC Sion usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of FC Basel 1893's recent games and 50% of FC Sion's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FC Basel 1893 and FC Sion tend to score early?
FC Basel 1893 have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, FC Sion in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
FC Basel 1893 and FC Sion share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Basel 1893 and FC Sion finished level at 1-1 at St. Jakob-Park, Regular Season - 20, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Basel 1893 1.38 xG and FC Sion 0.94 xG, a combined 2.32. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Basel 1893 attack 0.82 / defence 0.64 against FC Sion attack 0.96 / defence 1.02, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Basel 1893 47% | Draw 27% | FC Sion 26%, with FC Basel 1893 to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Basel 1893 61%, FC Sion 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Basel 1893's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
FC Sion's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, FC Basel 1893 arrived the stronger side — 1.84 PPG against 1.30. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. FC Basel 1893 (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.