Vasteras SK FK 1-1 Orgryte IS – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Vasteras SK FK at 41%, yet in-form Orgryte IS provide a compelling counter-argument — this Vasteras SK FK vs Orgryte IS fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Vasteras SK FK host Orgryte IS at Iver Arena in Superettan, Regular Season - 21. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 27 August 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Superettan games this season, Vasteras SK FK have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: D L L D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Vasteras SK FK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Iver Arena, Vasteras SK FK have gone 2W 5D 3L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Orgryte IS stand at 5W 4D 1L from 10 Superettan matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W D W W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.00. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Orgryte IS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Orgryte IS's away record: 3W 3D 4L from 10 road trips in Superettan this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Orgryte IS's 1.90 PPG return is 0.90 points per game ahead of Vasteras SK FK's 1.00 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Vasteras SK FK register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Orgryte IS in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Vasteras SK FK have won 0, Orgryte IS 0, with 3 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Jul 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Vasteras SK FK trading profile (50 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (home games).
Orgryte IS trading profile (50 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Vasteras SK FK 62% and Orgryte IS 66% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Vasteras SK FK 56% | Orgryte IS 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vasteras SK FK 1.75 xG and Orgryte IS 1.60 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vasteras SK FK attack 1.177 / defence 1.265 | Orgryte IS attack 0.929 / defence 1.061. League average goals — home 1.399 / away 1.358. Data: 50 Vasteras SK FK games / 50 Orgryte IS games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Vasteras SK FK 41% | Draw 25% | Orgryte IS 34%. Fair-value odds: Vasteras SK FK 2.44 | Draw 4.00 | Orgryte IS 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.34. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.34 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (1.75 / 1.60) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Vasteras SK FK at 41% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Orgryte IS (1.90 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Vasteras SK FK offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.34 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 65% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 67% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Vasteras SK FK 70% | Orgryte IS 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vasteras SK FK vs Orgryte IS | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Iver Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Aug 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vasteras SK FK 41% | Draw 25% | Orgryte IS 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 67% | xG Vasteras SK FK 1.75 / Orgryte IS 1.60 • Poisson strength factors: Vasteras SK FK attack 1.177 / def 1.265 | Orgryte IS attack 0.929 / def 1.061 | league avg home 1.399 / away 1.358 • Poisson stance: Vasteras SK FK (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.75
Vasteras SK FK xG
Expected Goals
1.60
Orgryte IS xG
67%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Vasteras SK FK vs Orgryte IS kick off?
Vasteras SK FK vs Orgryte IS kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 27 August 2022 at Iver Arena.
What was the final score in Vasteras SK FK vs Orgryte IS?
Vasteras SK FK 1 - 1 Orgryte IS.
Where is Vasteras SK FK vs Orgryte IS being played?
The match is being played at Iver Arena.
What competition is Vasteras SK FK vs Orgryte IS part of?
Vasteras SK FK vs Orgryte IS is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Vasteras SK FK vs Orgryte IS?
Our statistical model gives Vasteras SK FK a 41% chance of winning, Orgryte IS a 34% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Vasteras SK FK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vasteras SK FK vs Orgryte IS?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Vasteras SK FK and Orgryte IS will score (BTTS).
Will Vasteras SK FK vs Orgryte IS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between Vasteras SK FK and Orgryte IS?
Record (3 meetings): Vasteras SK FK 0W | Draws 3 | Orgryte IS 0W.
What form are Vasteras SK FK and Orgryte IS in?
Vasteras SK FK (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-L-D-D. Orgryte IS (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Vasteras SK FK's attack rating (1.18) and Orgryte IS's defence rating (1.06), the model arrives at 1.75 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Orgryte IS's attack versus Vasteras SK FK's defence, projects 1.60 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 50/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 1-2 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Vasteras SK FK Win
41%
2.46
25%
3.99
34%
2.91
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
1 – 2
7.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.75
Vasteras SK FK xG
Total xG
3.34
1.60
Orgryte IS xG
2.46
41%
Home win
3.99
25%
Draw
2.91
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.49
33%
BTTS No
3.03
Clean Sheet
20%
4.93
17%
5.74
Win to Nil
8%
12.14
6%
16.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.5 | 5.6 | 4.5 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 6.2 | 9.9 | 7.9 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 8.6 | 6.9 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 5.0 | 4.0 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 2.2 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Vasteras SK FK vs Orgryte IS?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.1%.
How many goals are Vasteras SK FK and Orgryte IS expected to score?
The model projects 1.75 expected goals for Vasteras SK FK and 1.60 for Orgryte IS, a combined total of 3.34.
How confident is the prediction model for Vasteras SK FK vs Orgryte IS?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Vasteras SK FK come into this having played 50 games, going 12W 20D 18L for 1.12 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-D-D. The sample for Vasteras SK FK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Orgryte IS sit at 1.28 PPG from 50 outings (14W 22D 14L), a run that reads W-D-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Orgryte IS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Vasteras SK FK on 1.12 PPG, Orgryte IS on 1.28. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Vasteras SK FK's home form reads 6W 12D 7L across 25 games on their own ground, a 1.20 PPG return.
Away from home, Orgryte IS have taken 1.28 points per game from 25 outings (8W 8D 9L).
The Goals Picture
Vasteras SK FK are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 1.52 conceded per game recently; Orgryte IS are on 1.38 scored and 1.42 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Vasteras SK FK have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; Orgryte IS in 66%.
Last 50 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vasteras SK FK
Blended
Orgryte IS
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Vasteras SK FK and Orgryte IS in coming into this match?
Vasteras SK FK have gone 12W 20D 18L in their last 50 games (1.12 PPG), while Orgryte IS have gone 14W 22D 14L in their last 50 (1.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Vasteras SK FK at home or Orgryte IS away?
Orgryte IS's away record (1.28 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Vasteras SK FK at home: 1.20 PPG; Orgryte IS away: 1.28 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Vasteras SK FK and Orgryte IS runs to 9 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Superettan, Allsvenskan all feature in the head-to-head log. The two were last together as recently as 24 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Vasteras SK FK go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Vasteras SK FK's record when hosting Orgryte IS specifically: 1W 4D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
2
Vasteras SK FK
6
Draws
1
Orgryte IS
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Vasteras SK FK and Orgryte IS?
From 9 meetings on record, Vasteras SK FK have won 2, Orgryte IS have won 1, and 6 have been drawn.
When did Vasteras SK FK and Orgryte IS last play each other?
They last met on 24 July 2026, when Vasteras SK FK 2-0 Orgryte IS.
Who has won more matches between Vasteras SK FK and Orgryte IS?
Vasteras SK FK have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Vasteras SK FK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 24% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Orgryte IS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Vasteras SK FK at 68%, Orgryte IS at 64%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 72% for Vasteras SK FK and 56% for Orgryte IS. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vasteras SK FK home games / Orgryte IS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Vasteras SK FK play Orgryte IS?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of Vasteras SK FK's games and 64% of Orgryte IS's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Vasteras SK FK vs Orgryte IS usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 72% of Vasteras SK FK's matches and 56% of Orgryte IS's.
Do Vasteras SK FK and Orgryte IS tend to score early?
Vasteras SK FK have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, Orgryte IS in 84% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Vasteras SK FK and Orgryte IS share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Iver Arena, Regular Season - 21, as Vasteras SK FK and Orgryte IS drew 1-1 in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vasteras SK FK 1.75 xG and Orgryte IS 1.60 xG, a combined 3.34. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vasteras SK FK attack 1.18 / defence 1.26 against Orgryte IS attack 0.93 / defence 1.06, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Vasteras SK FK 41% | Draw 25% | Orgryte IS 34%, with Vasteras SK FK to win its most likely call at 41%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vasteras SK FK 56%, Orgryte IS 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Vasteras SK FK's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Orgryte IS's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Vasteras SK FK 1.12 PPG, Orgryte IS 1.28 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.