Vasteras SK FK 0-0 Landskrona BoIS – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Vasteras SK FK at 63%, yet other data sources diverge — this Vasteras SK FK vs Landskrona BoIS fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Superettan clash, Regular Season - 7 as Vasteras SK FK welcome Landskrona BoIS to Hitachi Energy Arena. Kick-off is set for Saturday 13 May 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Vasteras SK FK — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Superettan outings this season, averaging 2.00 points per game. Last five: W L W W W. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Vasteras SK FK's form when playing at home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 games at Hitachi Energy Arena this term (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Landskrona BoIS stand at 6W 3D 1L from 10 Superettan matches — 2.10 PPG. Last five: D W D D W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.00. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Landskrona BoIS's away record: 2W 4D 4L from 10 road trips in Superettan this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 2.00 PPG (Vasteras SK FK) versus 2.10 (Landskrona BoIS). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Vasteras SK FK, 2 for Landskrona BoIS and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Oct 2022, ended 0–1 with Landskrona BoIS winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Vasteras SK FK in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; they lead at the break 45% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
Landskrona BoIS in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Vasteras SK FK 62% and Landskrona BoIS 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Vasteras SK FK 55% | Landskrona BoIS 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vasteras SK FK 1.75 xG and Landskrona BoIS 0.69 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vasteras SK FK attack 1.116 / defence 0.809 | Landskrona BoIS attack 0.730 / defence 1.097. League average goals — home 1.431 / away 1.161. Data: 36 Vasteras SK FK games / 36 Landskrona BoIS games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Vasteras SK FK 63% | Draw 23% | Landskrona BoIS 14%. Fair-value odds: Vasteras SK FK 1.59 | Draw 4.35 | Landskrona BoIS 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Vasteras SK FK (63%) — a 49pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Vasteras SK FK at 63% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.44 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.1 goals per game points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 41% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Vasteras SK FK 70% | Landskrona BoIS 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vasteras SK FK vs Landskrona BoIS | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Hitachi Energy Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 13 May 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vasteras SK FK 63% | Draw 23% | Landskrona BoIS 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 41% | xG Vasteras SK FK 1.75 / Landskrona BoIS 0.69 • Poisson strength factors: Vasteras SK FK attack 1.116 / def 0.809 | Landskrona BoIS attack 0.730 / def 1.097 | league avg home 1.431 / away 1.161 • Poisson stance: Vasteras SK FK (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.75
Vasteras SK FK xG
Expected Goals
0.69
Landskrona BoIS xG
41%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Vasteras SK FK vs Landskrona BoIS kick off?
Vasteras SK FK vs Landskrona BoIS kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 13 May 2023 at Hitachi Energy Arena.
What was the final score in Vasteras SK FK vs Landskrona BoIS?
Vasteras SK FK 0 - 0 Landskrona BoIS.
Where is Vasteras SK FK vs Landskrona BoIS being played?
The match is being played at Hitachi Energy Arena.
What competition is Vasteras SK FK vs Landskrona BoIS part of?
Vasteras SK FK vs Landskrona BoIS is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Vasteras SK FK vs Landskrona BoIS?
Our statistical model gives Vasteras SK FK a 63% chance of winning, Landskrona BoIS a 14% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Vasteras SK FK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vasteras SK FK vs Landskrona BoIS?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Vasteras SK FK and Landskrona BoIS will score (BTTS).
Will Vasteras SK FK vs Landskrona BoIS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Vasteras SK FK and Landskrona BoIS?
Record (4 meetings): Vasteras SK FK 2W | Draws 0 | Landskrona BoIS 2W.
What form are Vasteras SK FK and Landskrona BoIS in?
Vasteras SK FK (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-W-W-W. Landskrona BoIS (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Vasteras SK FK's attack rating (1.12) and Landskrona BoIS's defence rating (1.10), the model arrives at 1.75 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Landskrona BoIS's attack versus Vasteras SK FK's defence, projects 0.69 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 36/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.0%. Close behind: 2-0 (13.4%), 1-1 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Vasteras SK FK Win
63%
1.59
23%
4.38
14%
7.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.3%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
13.4%
Home win
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.75
Vasteras SK FK xG
Total xG
2.44
0.69
Landskrona BoIS xG
1.59
63%
Home win
4.38
23%
Draw
7.07
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.44
59%
BTTS No
1.70
Clean Sheet
50%
1.98
17%
5.77
Win to Nil
32%
3.15
2%
40.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 6.0 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 15.3 | 10.5 | 3.6 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.4 | 9.2 | 3.1 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 7.8 | 5.4 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.4 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Vasteras SK FK vs Landskrona BoIS?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Vasteras SK FK and Landskrona BoIS expected to score?
The model projects 1.75 expected goals for Vasteras SK FK and 0.69 for Landskrona BoIS, a combined total of 2.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Vasteras SK FK vs Landskrona BoIS?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Vasteras SK FK come into this having played 60 games, going 18W 22D 20L for 1.27 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-W-W.
On the other side, Landskrona BoIS sit at 1.47 PPG from 60 outings (24W 16D 20L), a run that reads D-W-D-D-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Vasteras SK FK on 1.27 PPG, Landskrona BoIS on 1.47. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Vasteras SK FK's home form reads 10W 13D 7L across 30 games on their own ground, a 1.43 PPG return.
Away from home, Landskrona BoIS have taken 0.80 points per game from 30 outings (5W 9D 16L). That's a step down from their 1.47 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Landskrona BoIS's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Vasteras SK FK come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Vasteras SK FK are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; Landskrona BoIS are on 1.35 scored and 1.32 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Vasteras SK FK have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; Landskrona BoIS in 60%.
Last 60 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vasteras SK FK
Current Season
Landskrona BoIS
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Vasteras SK FK and Landskrona BoIS in coming into this match?
Vasteras SK FK have gone 18W 22D 20L in their last 60 games (1.27 PPG), while Landskrona BoIS have gone 24W 16D 20L in their last 60 (1.47 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Vasteras SK FK at home or Landskrona BoIS away?
Vasteras SK FK's home record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Vasteras SK FK at home: 1.43 PPG; Landskrona BoIS away: 0.80 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. They last met on 3 August 2025, roughly 12 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Vasteras SK FK have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 Jul 2022, when Vasteras SK FK won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Vasteras SK FK's record when hosting Landskrona BoIS specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Vasteras SK FK
1
Draws
2
Landskrona BoIS
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Vasteras SK FK and Landskrona BoIS?
From 8 meetings on record, Vasteras SK FK have won 5, Landskrona BoIS have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Vasteras SK FK and Landskrona BoIS last play each other?
They last met on 3 August 2025, when Landskrona BoIS 1-2 Vasteras SK FK.
Who has won more matches between Vasteras SK FK and Landskrona BoIS?
Vasteras SK FK have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Vasteras SK FK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 23% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Landskrona BoIS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Vasteras SK FK 70%, Landskrona BoIS 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 70% for Vasteras SK FK and 50% for Landskrona BoIS. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 47% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Landskrona BoIS in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vasteras SK FK home games / Landskrona BoIS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Vasteras SK FK play Landskrona BoIS?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of Vasteras SK FK's games and 53% of Landskrona BoIS's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Vasteras SK FK vs Landskrona BoIS usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of Vasteras SK FK's matches and 50% of Landskrona BoIS's.
Do Vasteras SK FK and Landskrona BoIS tend to score early?
Vasteras SK FK have had a goal before half-time in 90% of their recent matches, Landskrona BoIS in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Vasteras SK FK's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Vasteras SK FK and Landskrona BoIS finished level at 0-0 at Hitachi Energy Arena, Regular Season - 7, in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vasteras SK FK 1.75 xG and Landskrona BoIS 0.69 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Vasteras SK FK fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vasteras SK FK attack 1.12 / defence 0.81 against Landskrona BoIS attack 0.73 / defence 1.10, drawn from 36/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Vasteras SK FK 63% | Draw 23% | Landskrona BoIS 14%, with Vasteras SK FK to win its most likely call at 63%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vasteras SK FK 55%, Landskrona BoIS 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Vasteras SK FK's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Landskrona BoIS's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Vasteras SK FK 1.27 PPG, Landskrona BoIS 1.47 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Vasteras SK FK (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.70 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line. Landskrona BoIS (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.57 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.