Utsikten 0-0 Trelleborg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Trelleborg at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Utsikten vs Trelleborg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Utsikten host Trelleborg at Bravida Arena in Superettan, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off is scheduled for Tuesday 9 August 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Utsikten stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Superettan matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D L L L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Utsikten, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Utsikten have posted 3W 3D 2L at Bravida Arena — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 62% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Superettan games this season, Trelleborg have recorded 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D L W W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.60. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Trelleborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Trelleborg have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Trelleborg — 0.50 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.70 vs 1.20). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Utsikten register both teams scoring in 62% of relevant matches, Trelleborg in 80% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Utsikten, 1 for Trelleborg and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 3 Apr 2022, ended 0–1 with Trelleborg winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Utsikten in-play tendencies (17 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
Trelleborg in-play tendencies (17 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Utsikten 47% versus Trelleborg 71%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Utsikten 53% | Trelleborg 71%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Utsikten 1.40 xG and Trelleborg 1.52 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Utsikten attack 0.873 / defence 1.007 | Trelleborg attack 1.164 / defence 1.138. League average goals — home 1.407 / away 1.300. Data: 17 Utsikten games / 47 Trelleborg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Utsikten 35% | Draw 25% | Trelleborg 40%. Fair-value odds: Utsikten 2.86 | Draw 4.00 | Trelleborg 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.92. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.92 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Trelleborg are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Trelleborg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.92 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Utsikten 62% | Trelleborg 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Utsikten vs Trelleborg | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Bravida Arena • Kick-off: Tuesday 9 Aug 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Utsikten 35% | Draw 25% | Trelleborg 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 59% | xG Utsikten 1.40 / Trelleborg 1.52 • Poisson strength factors: Utsikten attack 0.873 / def 1.007 | Trelleborg attack 1.164 / def 1.138 | league avg home 1.407 / away 1.300 • Poisson stance: Trelleborg (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
Utsikten xG
Expected Goals
1.52
Trelleborg xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Utsikten vs Trelleborg kick off?
Utsikten vs Trelleborg kicked off at 18:00 on Tuesday 9 August 2022 at Bravida Arena.
What was the final score in Utsikten vs Trelleborg?
Utsikten 0 - 0 Trelleborg.
Where is Utsikten vs Trelleborg being played?
The match is being played at Bravida Arena.
What competition is Utsikten vs Trelleborg part of?
Utsikten vs Trelleborg is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Utsikten vs Trelleborg?
Our statistical model gives Utsikten a 35% chance of winning, Trelleborg a 40% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Trelleborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Utsikten vs Trelleborg?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Utsikten and Trelleborg will score (BTTS).
Will Utsikten vs Trelleborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Utsikten and Trelleborg?
Record (1 meetings): Utsikten 0W | Draws 0 | Trelleborg 1W.
What form are Utsikten and Trelleborg in?
Utsikten (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-L-L-L. Trelleborg (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Utsikten's attack rating (0.87) and Trelleborg's defence rating (1.14), the model arrives at 1.40 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Trelleborg's attack versus Utsikten's defence, projects 1.52 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 17/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.0%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.7%), 2-1 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Trelleborg Win
35%
2.87
25%
4.04
40%
2.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.7%
Away win
0 – 1
8.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
Utsikten xG
Total xG
2.92
1.52
Trelleborg xG
2.87
35%
Home win
4.04
25%
Draw
2.47
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.43
Clean Sheet
22%
4.59
25%
4.05
Win to Nil
8%
13.18
10%
10.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 8.2 | 6.3 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 11.5 | 8.7 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 8.0 | 6.1 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.7 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Utsikten vs Trelleborg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Utsikten and Trelleborg expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Utsikten and 1.52 for Trelleborg, a combined total of 2.92.
How confident is the prediction model for Utsikten vs Trelleborg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 17 outings, Utsikten have picked up 1.41 PPG on a 7W 3D 7L record — D-L-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Utsikten is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Trelleborg's form line: 8W 4D 5L from 17 games, 1.65 PPG, last five D-L-W-W-L. The sample for Trelleborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Utsikten on 1.41 PPG, Trelleborg on 1.65. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Utsikten have posted 1.50 PPG from 8 outings (3W 3D 2L).
On the road, Trelleborg have gone 4W 1D 3L from 8 away games — 1.62 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Utsikten are averaging 1.59 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; Trelleborg are on 1.59 scored and 1.59 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Trelleborg in 71%.
Defensively: Utsikten have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 17 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Utsikten
Blended
Trelleborg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Utsikten and Trelleborg in coming into this match?
Utsikten have gone 7W 3D 7L in their last 17 games (1.41 PPG), while Trelleborg have gone 8W 4D 5L in their last 17 (1.65 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Utsikten at home or Trelleborg away?
Trelleborg's away record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Utsikten at home: 1.50 PPG; Trelleborg away: 1.62 PPG.
Have Utsikten or Trelleborg been keeping clean sheets recently?
Utsikten have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Trelleborg in 12%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. They last met on 19 October 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 10 Jul 2023, when Utsikten won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Utsikten's record when hosting Trelleborg specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Utsikten
3
Draws
3
Trelleborg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Utsikten and Trelleborg?
From 8 meetings on record, Utsikten have won 2, Trelleborg have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Utsikten and Trelleborg last play each other?
They last met on 19 October 2025, when Utsikten 3-1 Trelleborg.
Who has won more matches between Utsikten and Trelleborg?
Trelleborg have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Utsikten are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Trelleborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Utsikten at 62%, Trelleborg at 75%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for Utsikten and 75% for Trelleborg. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Utsikten home games / Trelleborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Utsikten play Trelleborg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Utsikten's games and 75% of Trelleborg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Utsikten vs Trelleborg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Utsikten's matches and 75% of Trelleborg's.
Do Utsikten and Trelleborg tend to score early?
Utsikten have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, Trelleborg in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Utsikten's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Utsikten and Trelleborg finished level at 0-0 at Bravida Arena, Regular Season - 18, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Utsikten 1.40 xG and Trelleborg 1.52 xG, a combined 2.92. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Utsikten fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Trelleborg landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Utsikten attack 0.87 / defence 1.01 against Trelleborg attack 1.16 / defence 1.14, drawn from 17/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Utsikten 35% | Draw 25% | Trelleborg 40%, with Trelleborg to win its most likely call at 40%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Utsikten 53%, Trelleborg 71%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Utsikten's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.
Trelleborg's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Utsikten 1.41 PPG, Trelleborg 1.65 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Utsikten (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.62 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.25 average — tighter than their form line. Trelleborg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.75 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.88 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.