Utsikten 2-1 Sandviken – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Utsikten at 46% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Utsikten face Sandviken.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Utsikten welcome Sandviken to Bravida Arena in Superettan (matchday 16). Kick-off is Saturday 27 July 2024 at 13:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Utsikten have gone 4W 2D 4L — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: L L L L W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, Utsikten have gone 4W 3D 3L in their last 10 home games (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Sandviken — last 10 games: 5W 2D 3L — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W W L L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.10. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Sandviken away from home: 2W 3D 3L from their last 8 away games — 1.12 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.12 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from their last 8 away games (38%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.12 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.40 PPG (Utsikten) versus 1.70 (Sandviken). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 1 H2H match, Utsikten have won 1, Sandviken 0, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 1 H2H match in our data averaged 3.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 21 Jul 2024, ended Utsikten 2–1 Sandviken — a Utsikten win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Utsikten trading profile (last 15 games, 7 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 43% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; of the 4 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games).
Sandviken trading profile (last 15 games, 7 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 43% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; of the 4 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Utsikten 53% versus Sandviken 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Utsikten 40% | Sandviken 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Utsikten 1.46 xG and Sandviken 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Utsikten attack 0.919 / defence 1.011 | Sandviken attack 0.935 / defence 1.119. League average goals — home 1.422 / away 1.142. Data: built from Utsikten's last 45 games and Sandviken's last 15.
Result probabilities: Utsikten 46% | Draw 27% | Sandviken 28%. Fair-value odds: Utsikten 2.20 | Draw 3.72 | Sandviken 3.63. Utsikten hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Utsikten as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Utsikten offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.54 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Utsikten 40% (last 10 home games) | Sandviken 38% (last 8 away games), a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Utsikten vs Sandviken | Competition: Superettan, matchday 16 | Venue: Bravida Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 27 July 2024 at 13:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Utsikten 46% | Draw 27% | Sandviken 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% (Under 53%) | BTTS Yes 51% (No 49%) | xG Utsikten 1.46 / Sandviken 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Utsikten attack 0.919 / def 1.011 | Sandviken attack 0.935 / def 1.119 | league avg home 1.422 / away 1.142 • Poisson stance: Utsikten (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
Utsikten xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Sandviken xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Utsikten vs Sandviken FAQs
What time does Utsikten vs Sandviken kick off?
Utsikten vs Sandviken kicked off at 13:00 UK time on Saturday 27 July 2024 at Bravida Arena.
What was the final score in Utsikten vs Sandviken?
Utsikten 2 - 1 Sandviken.
Where is Utsikten vs Sandviken being played?
The match is being played at Bravida Arena.
What competition is Utsikten vs Sandviken part of?
Utsikten vs Sandviken is a Superettan fixture (matchday 16) (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Utsikten vs Sandviken?
Our statistical model gives Utsikten a 46% chance of winning, Sandviken a 28% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Utsikten the favourite.
Will both teams score in Utsikten vs Sandviken?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Utsikten and Sandviken will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Utsikten vs Sandviken have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (53%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Utsikten's attack at 0.92x the league average against Sandviken's defence at 1.12x — combine the two and it projects 1.46 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Sandviken's attack versus Utsikten's defence, projects 1.08 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Utsikten's last 45 games and Sandviken's last 15 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (9.9%), 0-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Utsikten Win
46%
2.20
27%
3.72
28%
3.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.5%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
Utsikten xG
Total xG
2.54
1.08
Sandviken xG
2.20
46%
Home win
3.72
27%
Draw
3.63
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
34%
2.94
23%
4.31
Win to Nil
15%
6.47
6%
15.63
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 8.5 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.5 | 12.4 | 6.7 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 9.1 | 4.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 4.4 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Utsikten vs Sandviken Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Utsikten vs Sandviken?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Utsikten and Sandviken expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for Utsikten and 1.08 for Sandviken, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Utsikten vs Sandviken?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Utsikten's recent record stands at 6W 4D 5L from 15 games, a 1.47 PPG return, with L-L-L-L-W in the last five.
Sandviken, meanwhile, have gone 7W 3D 5L across 15 games — 1.60 PPG, with W-W-W-L-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Utsikten on 1.47 PPG, Sandviken on 1.60. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Utsikten have managed 3W 2D 2L from their last 7 home games — 1.57 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Sandviken's away record stands at 2W 3D 2L across their last 7 away games, a 1.29 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Utsikten are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.07 conceded per game recently; Sandviken are on 1.40 scored and 1.27 conceded.
Last 15 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Utsikten
Blended
Sandviken
Blended
Utsikten (Home) vs Sandviken (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Utsikten
Blended
Sandviken
Blended
❓ Utsikten vs Sandviken Form FAQs
What form are Utsikten and Sandviken in coming into this match?
Utsikten have gone 6W 4D 5L in their last 15 games (1.47 PPG), while Sandviken have gone 7W 3D 5L in their last 15 (1.60 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Utsikten at home or Sandviken away?
Utsikten's home record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Utsikten at home: 1.57 PPG; Sandviken away: 1.29 PPG.
Have Utsikten or Sandviken been keeping clean sheets recently?
Utsikten have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Sandviken in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 4 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from July 2024. All of them came in Superettan. The most recent was on 25 October 2025, roughly 12 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 20 Apr 2025, when Utsikten won Utsikten 4-1 Sandviken.
Utsikten's record when hosting Sandviken specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Utsikten
0
Draws
1
Sandviken
Recent Meetings
❓ Utsikten vs Sandviken H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Utsikten and Sandviken?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Utsikten have won 3, Sandviken have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Utsikten and Sandviken last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 25 October 2025: Sandviken 3-1 Utsikten.
Who has won more matches between Utsikten and Sandviken?
Utsikten have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Utsikten see a goal before the break in 43% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Sandviken see a goal before the break in 43% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Utsikten 43%, Sandviken 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 29% (Utsikten) and 43% (Sandviken).
On the defensive side: Utsikten keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Sandviken in 43%; Utsikten have failed to score in 29% of games; Sandviken in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Utsikten home games / Sandviken away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Utsikten vs Sandviken Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Utsikten and Sandviken matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Utsikten's recent matches and 43% of Sandviken's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Utsikten and Sandviken matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 29% of Utsikten's recent games and 43% of Sandviken's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Prediction vindicated as Utsikten edge out Sandviken 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Utsikten beat Sandviken 2-1 at Bravida Arena, Regular Season - 16, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Utsikten 1.46 xG and Sandviken 1.08 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Utsikten attack 0.92 / defence 1.01 against Sandviken attack 0.94 / defence 1.12, drawn from 45/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Utsikten 46% | Draw 27% | Sandviken 28%, with Utsikten to win its most likely call at 46%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Utsikten 40%, Sandviken 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Utsikten's trading profile (15 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Sandviken's trading profile (15 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Utsikten 1.47 PPG, Sandviken 1.60 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Utsikten win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.