Utsikten 1-1 Orgryte IS – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Orgryte IS at 50% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Utsikten vs Orgryte IS encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Orgryte IS make the trip to Bravida Arena to face Utsikten in Superettan, Regular Season - 24. The match kicks off on Tuesday 24 September 2024 at 18:00 UTC.
Form
Utsikten (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Superettan fixtures this term — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L W D L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Utsikten, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Utsikten's form when playing at home: 5W 1D 4L across 10 games at Bravida Arena this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Utsikten are significantly better at Bravida Arena than their overall form suggests.
Orgryte IS's overall Superettan record this term: 7W 1D 2L from 10 games (2.20 PPG). Last five: L L W W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.00. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Orgryte IS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Orgryte IS away from home this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Orgryte IS are 1.10 PPG clear of Utsikten in recent Superettan fixtures (2.20 vs 1.10). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Utsikten lead 3W to 1W over the last 5 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Mar 2024, ended 2–1 with Utsikten winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Utsikten — key trading statistics (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games).
Orgryte IS — key trading statistics (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Utsikten 51% versus Orgryte IS 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Utsikten 49% | Orgryte IS 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Utsikten 1.19 xG and Orgryte IS 1.75 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Utsikten attack 0.933 / defence 1.240 | Orgryte IS attack 1.170 / defence 0.973. League average goals — home 1.315 / away 1.204. Data: 53 Utsikten games / 53 Orgryte IS games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Utsikten 25% | Draw 25% | Orgryte IS 50%. Fair-value odds: Utsikten 4.00 | Draw 4.00 | Orgryte IS 2.00. Orgryte IS hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.94. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.94 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Utsikten dominate the H2H record, yet Orgryte IS are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
Poisson rates Orgryte IS as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Orgryte IS if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.94 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Utsikten 50% | Orgryte IS 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Utsikten vs Orgryte IS | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Bravida Arena • Kick-off: Tuesday 24 Sep 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Utsikten 25% | Draw 25% | Orgryte IS 50% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 58% | xG Utsikten 1.19 / Orgryte IS 1.75 • Poisson strength factors: Utsikten attack 0.933 / def 1.240 | Orgryte IS attack 1.170 / def 0.973 | league avg home 1.315 / away 1.204 • Poisson stance: Orgryte IS (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
Utsikten xG
Expected Goals
1.75
Orgryte IS xG
58%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Utsikten vs Orgryte IS kick off?
Utsikten vs Orgryte IS kicked off at 18:00 on Tuesday 24 September 2024 at Bravida Arena.
What was the final score in Utsikten vs Orgryte IS?
Utsikten 1 - 1 Orgryte IS.
Where is Utsikten vs Orgryte IS being played?
The match is being played at Bravida Arena.
What competition is Utsikten vs Orgryte IS part of?
Utsikten vs Orgryte IS is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Utsikten vs Orgryte IS?
Our statistical model gives Utsikten a 25% chance of winning, Orgryte IS a 50% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Orgryte IS the favourite.
Will both teams score in Utsikten vs Orgryte IS?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Utsikten and Orgryte IS will score (BTTS).
Will Utsikten vs Orgryte IS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Utsikten and Orgryte IS?
Record (5 meetings): Utsikten 3W | Draws 1 | Orgryte IS 1W.
What form are Utsikten and Orgryte IS in?
Utsikten (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-D-L-D. Orgryte IS (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Utsikten's attacking strength (0.93x league average) is weighed against Orgryte IS's defensive record (0.97x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.19. Flip it around — Orgryte IS's attack (1.17x) against Utsikten's defence (1.24x) — and the away total comes out at 1.75.
These ratings are built from 53/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.5%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.6%), 0-2 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Orgryte IS Win
25%
3.94
25%
4.00
50%
2.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.6%
Away win
0 – 1
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
Utsikten xG
Total xG
2.94
1.75
Orgryte IS xG
3.94
25%
Home win
4.00
25%
Draw
2.01
50%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.39
Clean Sheet
17%
5.73
30%
3.29
Win to Nil
4%
22.60
15%
6.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 9.2 | 8.1 | 4.7 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 6.3 | 11.0 | 9.6 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 3.8 | 6.6 | 5.7 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.6 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Utsikten vs Orgryte IS?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Utsikten and Orgryte IS expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Utsikten and 1.75 for Orgryte IS, a combined total of 2.94.
How confident is the prediction model for Utsikten vs Orgryte IS?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Utsikten's recent record stands at 24W 14D 17L from 55 games, a 1.56 PPG return, with L-W-D-L-D in the last five. The sample for Utsikten is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Orgryte IS, meanwhile, have gone 19W 13D 23L across 55 games — 1.27 PPG, with L-L-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for Orgryte IS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.56 PPG for Utsikten against 1.27 for Orgryte IS. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Utsikten have managed 14W 6D 7L from 27 games — 1.78 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Orgryte IS's away record stands at 10W 5D 12L across 27 trips, a 1.30 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Utsikten come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Utsikten are averaging 1.36 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Orgryte IS are on 1.31 scored and 1.45 conceded.
Last 55 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Utsikten
Blended
Orgryte IS
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Utsikten and Orgryte IS in coming into this match?
Utsikten have gone 24W 14D 17L in their last 55 games (1.56 PPG), while Orgryte IS have gone 19W 13D 23L in their last 55 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Utsikten at home or Orgryte IS away?
Utsikten's home record (1.78 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Utsikten at home: 1.78 PPG; Orgryte IS away: 1.30 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. They last met on 31 August 2025, roughly 11 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Orgryte IS have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Utsikten have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Orgryte IS — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Utsikten
2
Draws
3
Orgryte IS
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Utsikten and Orgryte IS?
From 8 meetings on record, Utsikten have won 3, Orgryte IS have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Utsikten and Orgryte IS last play each other?
They last met on 31 August 2025, when Utsikten 1-2 Orgryte IS.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Utsikten are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
Orgryte IS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Utsikten 56%, Orgryte IS 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Utsikten) and 44% (Orgryte IS).
On the defensive side: Orgryte IS in 33%; Utsikten have failed to score in 26% of games; Orgryte IS in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Utsikten home games / Orgryte IS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Utsikten play Orgryte IS?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Utsikten's recent matches and 48% of Orgryte IS's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Utsikten vs Orgryte IS usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 59% of Utsikten's recent games and 44% of Orgryte IS's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Utsikten and Orgryte IS tend to score early?
Utsikten have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Orgryte IS in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Utsikten and Orgryte IS share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Utsikten and Orgryte IS finished level at 1-1 at Bravida Arena, Regular Season - 24, in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Utsikten 1.19 xG and Orgryte IS 1.75 xG, a combined 2.94. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Utsikten attack 0.93 / defence 1.24 against Orgryte IS attack 1.17 / defence 0.97, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Utsikten 25% | Draw 25% | Orgryte IS 50%, with Orgryte IS to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Utsikten 49%, Orgryte IS 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Utsikten's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Orgryte IS's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Utsikten 1.56 PPG, Orgryte IS 1.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.