Utsikten 1-0 IK brage – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates IK brage at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Utsikten vs IK brage fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Superettan encounter, Regular Season - 11 sees IK brage travel to Bravida Arena to take on Utsikten. The game is scheduled for Sunday 26 June 2022, 12:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
IK brage — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Superettan fixtures this season — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D L W W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.30. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
IK brage's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Utsikten 1.53 xG and IK brage 1.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Utsikten attack 1.093 / defence 1.185 | IK brage attack 1.131 / defence 0.962. League average goals — home 1.459 / away 1.384. Data: 10 Utsikten games / 40 IK brage games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Utsikten 31% | Draw 25% | IK brage 44%. Fair-value odds: Utsikten 3.23 | Draw 4.00 | IK brage 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.39. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.39 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (1.53 / 1.85) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates IK brage as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on IK brage offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.39 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 66% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Utsikten vs IK brage | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Bravida Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 26 Jun 2022, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Utsikten 31% | Draw 25% | IK brage 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 67% | xG Utsikten 1.53 / IK brage 1.85 • Poisson strength factors: Utsikten attack 1.093 / def 1.185 | IK brage attack 1.131 / def 0.962 | league avg home 1.459 / away 1.384 • Poisson stance: IK brage (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.53
Utsikten xG
Expected Goals
1.85
IK brage xG
67%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Utsikten vs IK brage kick off?
Utsikten vs IK brage kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 26 June 2022 at Bravida Arena.
What was the final score in Utsikten vs IK brage?
Utsikten 1 - 0 IK brage.
Where is Utsikten vs IK brage being played?
The match is being played at Bravida Arena.
What competition is Utsikten vs IK brage part of?
Utsikten vs IK brage is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Utsikten vs IK brage?
Our statistical model gives Utsikten a 31% chance of winning, IK brage a 44% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making IK brage the favourite.
Will both teams score in Utsikten vs IK brage?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Utsikten and IK brage will score (BTTS).
Will Utsikten vs IK brage have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between Utsikten and IK brage?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Utsikten and IK brage in?
IK brage (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-W-W-W. IK brage away split: 1.20 PPG from 10 | GF 1.40 / GA 1.70 | CS 2.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Utsikten's attacking strength (1.09x league average) is weighed against IK brage's defensive record (0.96x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.53. The same calculation in reverse, IK brage's attack versus Utsikten's defence, projects 1.85 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 10/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.8%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.9%), 2-1 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
IK brage Win
31%
3.24
25%
4.02
44%
2.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
2 – 1
7.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.53
Utsikten xG
Total xG
3.39
1.85
IK brage xG
3.24
31%
Home win
4.02
25%
Draw
2.26
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.48
33%
BTTS No
3.07
Clean Sheet
16%
6.39
22%
4.64
Win to Nil
5%
20.69
10%
10.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 6.3 | 5.8 | 3.6 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 5.2 | 9.6 | 8.9 | 5.5 | 2.6 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 7.4 | 6.8 | 4.2 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 3.8 | 3.5 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Utsikten vs IK brage?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.8%.
How many goals are Utsikten and IK brage expected to score?
The model projects 1.53 expected goals for Utsikten and 1.85 for IK brage, a combined total of 3.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Utsikten vs IK brage?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Utsikten
Pre-Season
IK brage
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Utsikten and IK brage runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to June 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. They last met on 29 September 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 14 May 2023, when Utsikten won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Utsikten's record when hosting IK brage specifically: 4W 0D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Utsikten
2
Draws
1
IK brage
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Utsikten and IK brage?
From 8 meetings on record, Utsikten have won 5, IK brage have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Utsikten and IK brage last play each other?
They last met on 29 September 2025, when Utsikten 2-1 IK brage.
Who has won more matches between Utsikten and IK brage?
Utsikten have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Utsikten home games / IK brage away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Shock result as Utsikten defy the odds to beat IK brage 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Utsikten beat IK brage 1-0 at Bravida Arena, Regular Season - 11, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Utsikten 1.53 xG and IK brage 1.85 xG, a combined 3.39. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. IK brage landed 1.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Utsikten attack 1.09 / defence 1.19 against IK brage attack 1.13 / defence 0.96, drawn from 10/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Utsikten 31% | Draw 25% | IK brage 44%, with IK brage to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Utsikten win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 86% and missed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.