Trelleborg 1-0 Utsikten – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Trelleborg at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this Trelleborg vs Utsikten fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Trelleborg host Utsikten at Vångavallen in Superettan, Regular Season - 1. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 3 April 2022 at 12:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Trelleborg stand at 1W 4D 5L from 10 Superettan matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: W L L D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
In front of their own supporters this season, Trelleborg have posted 6W 1D 3L at Vångavallen — 1.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Trelleborg are significantly better at Vångavallen than their overall form suggests.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Trelleborg 1.78 xG and Utsikten 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Trelleborg attack 1.044 / defence 1.016 | Utsikten attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.485 / away 1.292. Data: 30 Trelleborg games / 0 Utsikten games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Trelleborg 53% | Draw 24% | Utsikten 23%. Fair-value odds: Trelleborg 1.89 | Draw 4.17 | Utsikten 4.35. Trelleborg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.90. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.90 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Trelleborg are the pick at 53% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Trelleborg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.90 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Trelleborg vs Utsikten | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Vångavallen • Kick-off: Sunday 3 Apr 2022, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Trelleborg 53% | Draw 24% | Utsikten 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 56% | xG Trelleborg 1.78 / Utsikten 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Trelleborg attack 1.044 / def 1.016 | Utsikten attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.485 / away 1.292 • Poisson stance: Trelleborg (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.78
Trelleborg xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Utsikten xG
56%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Trelleborg vs Utsikten kick off?
Trelleborg vs Utsikten kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 3 April 2022 at Vångavallen.
What was the final score in Trelleborg vs Utsikten?
Trelleborg 1 - 0 Utsikten.
Where is Trelleborg vs Utsikten being played?
The match is being played at Vångavallen.
What competition is Trelleborg vs Utsikten part of?
Trelleborg vs Utsikten is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Trelleborg vs Utsikten?
Our statistical model gives Trelleborg a 53% chance of winning, Utsikten a 23% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Trelleborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Trelleborg vs Utsikten?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Trelleborg and Utsikten will score (BTTS).
Will Trelleborg vs Utsikten have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Trelleborg and Utsikten?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Trelleborg and Utsikten in?
Trelleborg (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-L-L-D-L. Trelleborg home split: 1.90 PPG from 10 | GF 1.90 / GA 1.20 | CS 4.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Trelleborg's attack rating (1.04) and Utsikten's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.78 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Utsikten's attack versus Trelleborg's defence, projects 1.11 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 30/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Trelleborg Win
53%
1.90
24%
4.12
23%
4.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.78
Trelleborg xG
Total xG
2.90
1.11
Utsikten xG
1.90
53%
Home win
4.12
24%
Draw
4.31
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.77
44%
BTTS No
2.29
Clean Sheet
33%
3.05
17%
5.95
Win to Nil
17%
5.81
4%
25.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 6.1 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 11.0 | 6.1 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 9.8 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 5.8 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.6 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Trelleborg vs Utsikten?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Trelleborg and Utsikten expected to score?
The model projects 1.78 expected goals for Trelleborg and 1.11 for Utsikten, a combined total of 2.90.
How confident is the prediction model for Trelleborg vs Utsikten?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Trelleborg
Pre-Season
Utsikten
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Trelleborg and Utsikten runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. They last met on 19 October 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 10 Jul 2023, when Utsikten won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Trelleborg's record when hosting Utsikten specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Trelleborg
3
Draws
2
Utsikten
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Trelleborg and Utsikten?
From 8 meetings on record, Trelleborg have won 3, Utsikten have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Trelleborg and Utsikten last play each other?
They last met on 19 October 2025, when Utsikten 3-1 Trelleborg.
Who has won more matches between Trelleborg and Utsikten?
Trelleborg have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Trelleborg home games / Utsikten away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as Trelleborg edge out Utsikten 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Trelleborg beat Utsikten 1-0 at Vångavallen, Regular Season - 1, in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Trelleborg 1.78 xG and Utsikten 1.11 xG, a combined 2.90. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Utsikten landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Trelleborg attack 1.04 / defence 1.02 against Utsikten attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 30/0 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Trelleborg 53% | Draw 24% | Utsikten 23%, with Trelleborg to win its most likely call at 53%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.