Trelleborg 1-3 Osters IF – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Osters IF at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Trelleborg vs Osters IF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Superettan encounter, Regular Season - 19 sees Osters IF travel to Vångavallen to take on Trelleborg. The game is scheduled for Sunday 20 August 2023, 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Trelleborg stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Superettan matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D W L D D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Trelleborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Trelleborg at Vångavallen this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Osters IF — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Superettan fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W W D L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.30. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Osters IF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Osters IF's away record: 4W 3D 3L from 10 road trips in Superettan this season (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.30 PPG (Trelleborg) versus 1.70 (Osters IF). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Trelleborg, 2 for Osters IF and 1 shared spoils from 5 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 10 Apr 2023, ended 2–5 with Osters IF winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Trelleborg trading profile (48 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
Osters IF trading profile (48 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Trelleborg 65% and Osters IF 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Trelleborg 65% | Osters IF 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Trelleborg 1.33 xG and Osters IF 1.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Trelleborg attack 0.875 / defence 1.357 | Osters IF attack 1.225 / defence 1.036. League average goals — home 1.471 / away 1.173. Osters IF have an above-average attack strength of 1.225 — the away xG of 1.95 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 48 Trelleborg games / 48 Osters IF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Trelleborg 25% | Draw 24% | Osters IF 51%. Fair-value odds: Trelleborg 4.00 | Draw 4.17 | Osters IF 1.96. Osters IF hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.28. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.28 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.33 / 1.95) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Osters IF as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Osters IF offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 3.28 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 64% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 64% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Trelleborg 40% | Osters IF 90% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Trelleborg vs Osters IF | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Vångavallen • Kick-off: Sunday 20 Aug 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Trelleborg 25% | Draw 24% | Osters IF 51% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 64% | xG Trelleborg 1.33 / Osters IF 1.95 • Poisson strength factors: Trelleborg attack 0.875 / def 1.357 | Osters IF attack 1.225 / def 1.036 | league avg home 1.471 / away 1.173 • Poisson stance: Osters IF (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
Trelleborg xG
Expected Goals
1.95
Osters IF xG
64%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Trelleborg vs Osters IF kick off?
Trelleborg vs Osters IF kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 20 August 2023 at Vångavallen.
What was the final score in Trelleborg vs Osters IF?
Trelleborg 1 - 3 Osters IF.
Where is Trelleborg vs Osters IF being played?
The match is being played at Vångavallen.
What competition is Trelleborg vs Osters IF part of?
Trelleborg vs Osters IF is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Trelleborg vs Osters IF?
Our statistical model gives Trelleborg a 25% chance of winning, Osters IF a 51% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Osters IF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Trelleborg vs Osters IF?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Trelleborg and Osters IF will score (BTTS).
Will Trelleborg vs Osters IF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Trelleborg and Osters IF?
Record (5 meetings): Trelleborg 2W | Draws 1 | Osters IF 2W.
What form are Trelleborg and Osters IF in?
Trelleborg (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-W-L-D-D. Osters IF (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Trelleborg's attacking strength (0.88x league average) is weighed against Osters IF's defensive record (1.04x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.33. The same calculation in reverse, Osters IF's attack versus Trelleborg's defence, projects 1.95 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.0%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.5%), 0-2 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Osters IF Win
25%
3.96
24%
4.21
51%
1.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.5%
Away win
0 – 1
7.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Trelleborg xG
Total xG
3.28
1.95
Osters IF xG
3.96
25%
Home win
4.21
24%
Draw
1.96
51%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.56
36%
BTTS No
2.78
Clean Sheet
14%
7.03
26%
3.79
Win to Nil
4%
27.81
13%
7.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 7.3 | 7.1 | 4.6 | 2.3 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 5.0 | 9.8 | 9.5 | 6.2 | 3.0 | 1.2 |
| 2 | 3.3 | 6.5 | 6.3 | 4.1 | 2.0 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.9 | 2.8 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Trelleborg vs Osters IF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.0%.
How many goals are Trelleborg and Osters IF expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Trelleborg and 1.95 for Osters IF, a combined total of 3.28.
How confident is the prediction model for Trelleborg vs Osters IF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Trelleborg come into this having played 48 games, going 19W 10D 19L for 1.40 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-D-D. The sample for Trelleborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Osters IF sit at 1.56 PPG from 48 outings (21W 12D 15L), a run that reads W-W-W-D-L across their last five. The sample for Osters IF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Trelleborg on 1.40 PPG, Osters IF on 1.56. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Trelleborg's home form reads 11W 4D 9L across 24 games on their own ground, a 1.54 PPG return.
Away from home, Osters IF have taken 1.46 points per game from 24 outings (9W 8D 7L).
The Goals Picture
Trelleborg are averaging 1.46 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Osters IF are on 1.65 scored and 1.25 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Trelleborg have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games; Osters IF in 67%.
Last 48 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Trelleborg
Blended
Osters IF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Trelleborg and Osters IF in coming into this match?
Trelleborg have gone 19W 10D 19L in their last 48 games (1.40 PPG), while Osters IF have gone 21W 12D 15L in their last 48 (1.56 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Trelleborg at home or Osters IF away?
Trelleborg's home record (1.54 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Trelleborg at home: 1.54 PPG; Osters IF away: 1.46 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Trelleborg and Osters IF runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 September 2024, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Osters IF have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 10 Apr 2023, when Osters IF won 5-2 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Trelleborg's record when hosting Osters IF specifically: 1W 0D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Trelleborg
1
Draws
5
Osters IF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Trelleborg and Osters IF?
From 8 meetings on record, Trelleborg have won 2, Osters IF have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Trelleborg and Osters IF last play each other?
They last met on 18 September 2024, when Osters IF 4-1 Trelleborg.
Who has won more matches between Trelleborg and Osters IF?
Osters IF have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Trelleborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Osters IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Trelleborg 58%, Osters IF 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Trelleborg and 58% for Osters IF. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 21% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Trelleborg home games / Osters IF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Trelleborg play Osters IF?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Trelleborg's games and 71% of Osters IF's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Trelleborg vs Osters IF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Trelleborg's matches and 58% of Osters IF's.
Do Trelleborg and Osters IF tend to score early?
Trelleborg have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Osters IF in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Osters IF cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Trelleborg.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Osters IF beat Trelleborg 1-3 at Vångavallen, Regular Season - 19, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Trelleborg 1.33 xG and Osters IF 1.95 xG, a combined 3.28. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Osters IF outscored their 1.95 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Trelleborg attack 0.88 / defence 1.36 against Osters IF attack 1.23 / defence 1.04, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Trelleborg 25% | Draw 24% | Osters IF 51%, with Osters IF to win its most likely call at 51%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Trelleborg 65%, Osters IF 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Trelleborg's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Osters IF's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Trelleborg 1.40 PPG, Osters IF 1.56 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Osters IF win broke the near-deadlock. Trelleborg (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.54 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Osters IF (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.46 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.