Skövde AIK 2-1 Orgryte IS – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Orgryte IS at 39%, yet in-form Skövde AIK provide a compelling counter-argument — this Skövde AIK vs Orgryte IS fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Skövde AIK and Orgryte IS meet at Södermalms IP in Superettan, Regular Season - 13. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 10 July 2022 at 16:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Skövde AIK have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Superettan outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: D W D L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Skövde AIK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Södermalms IP, Skövde AIK have gone 3W 1D 2L this season (6 games, 1.67 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 0.83 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 6 home games (67%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Södermalms IP. At home, both teams have scored in only 17% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Orgryte IS (all games): 1W 4D 5L across 10 Superettan outings this term — 0.70 points per game. Last five: L D D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Orgryte IS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Superettan this season, Orgryte IS have posted 2W 4D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form favours the hosts. Skövde AIK's 1.50 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of Orgryte IS's 0.70 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Trading
Skövde AIK half-time and goal-timing data (14 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 17% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
Orgryte IS half-time and goal-timing data (14 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Skövde AIK 50% versus Orgryte IS 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Skövde AIK 50% | Orgryte IS 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Skövde AIK 1.26 xG and Orgryte IS 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Skövde AIK attack 0.706 / defence 1.077 | Orgryte IS attack 0.944 / defence 1.223. League average goals — home 1.464 / away 1.330. Skövde AIK's attack strength of 0.706 is below the league average — the 1.26 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Orgryte IS bring a strong defensive rating of 1.223 — this is suppressing Skövde AIK's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 12 Skövde AIK games / 42 Orgryte IS games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Skövde AIK 35% | Draw 27% | Orgryte IS 39%. Fair-value odds: Skövde AIK 2.86 | Draw 3.70 | Orgryte IS 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.62. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.62 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Orgryte IS are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Skövde AIK (1.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Orgryte IS if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.62 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 49% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Skövde AIK 17% | Orgryte IS 70%.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Skövde AIK vs Orgryte IS | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Södermalms IP • Kick-off: Sunday 10 Jul 2022, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Skövde AIK 35% | Draw 27% | Orgryte IS 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 53% | xG Skövde AIK 1.26 / Orgryte IS 1.35 • Poisson strength factors: Skövde AIK attack 0.706 / def 1.077 | Orgryte IS attack 0.944 / def 1.223 | league avg home 1.464 / away 1.330 • Poisson stance: Orgryte IS (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
Skövde AIK xG
Expected Goals
1.35
Orgryte IS xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Skövde AIK vs Orgryte IS kick off?
Skövde AIK vs Orgryte IS kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 10 July 2022 at Södermalms IP.
What was the final score in Skövde AIK vs Orgryte IS?
Skövde AIK 2 - 1 Orgryte IS.
Where is Skövde AIK vs Orgryte IS being played?
The match is being played at Södermalms IP.
What competition is Skövde AIK vs Orgryte IS part of?
Skövde AIK vs Orgryte IS is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Skövde AIK vs Orgryte IS?
Our statistical model gives Skövde AIK a 35% chance of winning, Orgryte IS a 39% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Orgryte IS the favourite.
Will both teams score in Skövde AIK vs Orgryte IS?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Skövde AIK and Orgryte IS will score (BTTS).
Will Skövde AIK vs Orgryte IS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Skövde AIK and Orgryte IS?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Skövde AIK and Orgryte IS in?
Skövde AIK (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-D-L-W. Orgryte IS (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Skövde AIK's attack at 0.71x the league average against Orgryte IS's defence at 1.22x — combine the two and it projects 1.26 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Orgryte IS's attack (0.94x) against Skövde AIK's defence (1.08x) — and the away total comes out at 1.35.
These ratings are built from 12/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (8.9%), 1-2 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Orgryte IS Win
35%
2.88
27%
3.77
39%
2.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.9%
Away win
1 – 0
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
Skövde AIK xG
Total xG
2.62
1.35
Orgryte IS xG
2.88
35%
Home win
3.77
27%
Draw
2.58
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.87
47%
BTTS No
2.14
Clean Sheet
26%
3.87
28%
3.54
Win to Nil
9%
11.15
11%
9.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 9.9 | 6.7 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 12.5 | 8.4 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 7.9 | 5.3 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.3 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Skövde AIK vs Orgryte IS?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Skövde AIK and Orgryte IS expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Skövde AIK and 1.35 for Orgryte IS, a combined total of 2.62.
How confident is the prediction model for Skövde AIK vs Orgryte IS?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Skövde AIK come into this having played 14 games, going 7W 4D 3L for 1.79 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-D-L-W. The sample for Skövde AIK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Orgryte IS sit at 0.86 PPG from 14 outings (2W 6D 6L), a run that reads L-D-D-D-W across their last five. The sample for Orgryte IS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Skövde AIK carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.93 PPG clear of Orgryte IS — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Skövde AIK's home form reads 3W 1D 2L across 6 games on their own ground, a 1.67 PPG return.
Away from home, Orgryte IS have taken 0.50 points per game from 6 outings (0W 3D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Skövde AIK come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Skövde AIK are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; Orgryte IS are on 1.36 scored and 1.86 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Orgryte IS in 64%.
Defensively: Skövde AIK have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 14 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Skövde AIK
Blended
Orgryte IS
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Skövde AIK and Orgryte IS in coming into this match?
Skövde AIK have gone 7W 4D 3L in their last 14 games (1.79 PPG), while Orgryte IS have gone 2W 6D 6L in their last 14 (0.86 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Skövde AIK at home or Orgryte IS away?
Skövde AIK's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Skövde AIK at home: 1.67 PPG; Orgryte IS away: 0.50 PPG.
Have Skövde AIK or Orgryte IS been keeping clean sheets recently?
Skövde AIK have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, Orgryte IS in 14%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 August 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Orgryte IS have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Orgryte IS won 3-0 on 29 Oct 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Skövde AIK have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Orgryte IS — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Skövde AIK
0
Draws
3
Orgryte IS
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Skövde AIK and Orgryte IS?
From 6 meetings on record, Skövde AIK have won 3, Orgryte IS have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Skövde AIK and Orgryte IS last play each other?
They last met on 4 August 2024, when Skövde AIK 0-2 Orgryte IS.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Skövde AIK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Orgryte IS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Skövde AIK 17%, Orgryte IS 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Skövde AIK) and 67% (Orgryte IS).
On the defensive side: Skövde AIK keep a clean sheet in 67% of their matches; Skövde AIK have failed to score in 33% of games; Orgryte IS in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Skövde AIK home games / Orgryte IS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Skövde AIK play Orgryte IS?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 17% of Skövde AIK's recent matches and 67% of Orgryte IS's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Skövde AIK vs Orgryte IS usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Skövde AIK's recent games and 67% of Orgryte IS's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Skövde AIK and Orgryte IS tend to score early?
Skövde AIK have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Orgryte IS in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Skövde AIK defy the odds to beat Orgryte IS 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Skövde AIK beat Orgryte IS 2-1 at Södermalms IP, Regular Season - 13, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Skövde AIK 1.26 xG and Orgryte IS 1.35 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Skövde AIK attack 0.71 / defence 1.08 against Orgryte IS attack 0.94 / defence 1.22, drawn from 12/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Skövde AIK 35% | Draw 27% | Orgryte IS 39%, with Orgryte IS to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Skövde AIK win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Skövde AIK 50%, Orgryte IS 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Skövde AIK's trading profile (14 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Orgryte IS's trading profile (14 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Skövde AIK arrived the stronger side — 1.79 PPG against 0.86. The form guide was vindicated by the result.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.