Ostersunds FK 0-2 Oddevold – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ostersunds FK at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ostersunds FK vs Oddevold fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Oddevold make the trip to Jämtkraft Arena to face Ostersunds FK in Superettan, Regular Season - 25. The match kicks off on Monday 30 September 2024 at 18:00 UTC.
Form
Ostersunds FK (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Superettan fixtures this term — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D L W L D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Ostersunds FK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ostersunds FK's form when playing at home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 games at Jämtkraft Arena this term (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Ostersunds FK are significantly better at Jämtkraft Arena than their overall form suggests.
Oddevold have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Superettan outings this season: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: L L W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Oddevold, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Oddevold away from home this season: 1W 4D 5L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.20 for Ostersunds FK, 1.00 for Oddevold — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Ostersunds FK lead 1W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 26 May 2024, ended 2–1 with Ostersunds FK winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Ostersunds FK — key trading statistics (24 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Oddevold — key trading statistics (24 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ostersunds FK 50% versus Oddevold 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ostersunds FK 38% | Oddevold 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ostersunds FK 1.69 xG and Oddevold 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ostersunds FK attack 0.991 / defence 0.954 | Oddevold attack 0.847 / defence 1.314. League average goals — home 1.301 / away 1.177. Oddevold bring a strong defensive rating of 1.314 — this is suppressing Ostersunds FK's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 54 Ostersunds FK games / 24 Oddevold games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ostersunds FK 54% | Draw 26% | Oddevold 20%. Fair-value odds: Ostersunds FK 1.85 | Draw 3.85 | Oddevold 5.00. Ostersunds FK hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Ostersunds FK at 54% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ostersunds FK if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.65 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates corroborate: Ostersunds FK 60% | Oddevold 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ostersunds FK vs Oddevold | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Jämtkraft Arena • Kick-off: Monday 30 Sep 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ostersunds FK 54% | Draw 26% | Oddevold 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 51% | xG Ostersunds FK 1.69 / Oddevold 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Ostersunds FK attack 0.991 / def 0.954 | Oddevold attack 0.847 / def 1.314 | league avg home 1.301 / away 1.177 • Poisson stance: Ostersunds FK (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.69
Ostersunds FK xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Oddevold xG
51%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ostersunds FK vs Oddevold kick off?
Ostersunds FK vs Oddevold kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 30 September 2024 at Jämtkraft Arena.
What was the final score in Ostersunds FK vs Oddevold?
Ostersunds FK 0 - 2 Oddevold.
Where is Ostersunds FK vs Oddevold being played?
The match is being played at Jämtkraft Arena.
What competition is Ostersunds FK vs Oddevold part of?
Ostersunds FK vs Oddevold is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Ostersunds FK vs Oddevold?
Our statistical model gives Ostersunds FK a 54% chance of winning, Oddevold a 20% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Ostersunds FK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ostersunds FK vs Oddevold?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Ostersunds FK and Oddevold will score (BTTS).
Will Ostersunds FK vs Oddevold have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ostersunds FK and Oddevold?
Record (1 meetings): Ostersunds FK 1W | Draws 0 | Oddevold 0W.
What form are Ostersunds FK and Oddevold in?
Ostersunds FK (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-W-L-D. Oddevold (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Ostersunds FK's attacking strength (0.99x league average) is weighed against Oddevold's defensive record (1.31x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.69. Flip it around — Oddevold's attack (0.85x) against Ostersunds FK's defence (0.95x) — and the away total comes out at 0.95.
These ratings are built from 54/24 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.5%), 2-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ostersunds FK Win
54%
1.85
26%
3.90
20%
4.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
2 – 0
10.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.69
Ostersunds FK xG
Total xG
2.65
0.95
Oddevold xG
1.85
54%
Home win
3.90
26%
Draw
4.93
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
39%
2.59
18%
5.44
Win to Nil
21%
4.79
4%
26.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 6.8 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.0 | 11.4 | 5.4 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.2 | 9.7 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.8 | 5.5 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ostersunds FK vs Oddevold?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Ostersunds FK and Oddevold expected to score?
The model projects 1.69 expected goals for Ostersunds FK and 0.95 for Oddevold, a combined total of 2.65.
How confident is the prediction model for Ostersunds FK vs Oddevold?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Ostersunds FK come into this having played 24 games, going 7W 7D 10L for 1.17 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-L-D. The sample for Ostersunds FK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Oddevold sit at 1.12 PPG from 24 outings (6W 9D 9L), a run that reads L-L-W-D-D across their last five. The sample for Oddevold is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.17 PPG for Ostersunds FK against 1.12 for Oddevold. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Ostersunds FK's home form reads 6W 4D 2L across 12 games on their own ground, a 1.83 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.17 PPG overall — Ostersunds FK are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Oddevold have taken 0.83 points per game from 12 outings (2W 4D 6L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ostersunds FK come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Ostersunds FK are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Oddevold are on 1.08 scored and 1.62 conceded.
Last 24 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ostersunds FK
Blended
Oddevold
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ostersunds FK and Oddevold in coming into this match?
Ostersunds FK have gone 7W 7D 10L in their last 24 games (1.17 PPG), while Oddevold have gone 6W 9D 9L in their last 24 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ostersunds FK at home or Oddevold away?
Ostersunds FK's home record (1.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ostersunds FK at home: 1.83 PPG; Oddevold away: 0.83 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 5 times since May 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. The two were last together as recently as 23 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Ostersunds FK have gone 0W 0D 2L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Oddevold — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
1
Ostersunds FK
1
Draws
3
Oddevold
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ostersunds FK and Oddevold?
From 5 meetings on record, Ostersunds FK have won 1, Oddevold have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Ostersunds FK and Oddevold last play each other?
They last met on 23 May 2026, when Oddevold 1-0 Ostersunds FK.
Who has won more matches between Ostersunds FK and Oddevold?
Oddevold have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Ostersunds FK see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Oddevold are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ostersunds FK 58%, Oddevold 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Ostersunds FK) and 75% (Oddevold). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 17% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Ostersunds FK keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Oddevold in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ostersunds FK home games / Oddevold away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ostersunds FK play Oddevold?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Ostersunds FK's games and 58% of Oddevold's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Ostersunds FK vs Oddevold usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 42% of Ostersunds FK's matches and 75% of Oddevold's.
Do Ostersunds FK and Oddevold tend to score early?
Ostersunds FK have had a goal before half-time in 58% of their recent matches, Oddevold in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Oddevold cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Ostersunds FK.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Oddevold beat Ostersunds FK 0-2 at Jämtkraft Arena, Regular Season - 25, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ostersunds FK 1.69 xG and Oddevold 0.95 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Ostersunds FK fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Oddevold outscored their 0.95 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ostersunds FK attack 0.99 / defence 0.95 against Oddevold attack 0.85 / defence 1.31, drawn from 54/24 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ostersunds FK 54% | Draw 26% | Oddevold 20%, with Ostersunds FK to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a Oddevold win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ostersunds FK 38%, Oddevold 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ostersunds FK's trading profile (24 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Oddevold's trading profile (24 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ostersunds FK 1.17 PPG, Oddevold 1.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Oddevold win broke the near-deadlock. Ostersunds FK (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.08 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Oddevold (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.08 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.92 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.