Ostersunds FK 1-0 Norrby IF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ostersunds FK at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ostersunds FK vs Norrby IF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Superettan clash, Regular Season - 30 as Ostersunds FK welcome Norrby IF to Jämtkraft Arena. Kick-off is set for Saturday 5 November 2022 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Ostersunds FK — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Superettan outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: D L D W D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Ostersunds FK's form when playing at home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 games at Jämtkraft Arena this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Across all Superettan games this season, Norrby IF have recorded 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Norrby IF's form when playing away from home: 0W 2D 8L across 10 road games this term (0.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.20 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Ostersunds FK at 1.30 PPG versus Norrby IF's 1.10. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Ostersunds FK have won 0, Norrby IF 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Jun 2022, ended 0–2 with Norrby IF winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Ostersunds FK in-play and half-time data (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
Norrby IF in-play and half-time data (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ostersunds FK 46% versus Norrby IF 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ostersunds FK 48% | Norrby IF 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ostersunds FK 1.62 xG and Norrby IF 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ostersunds FK attack 0.819 / defence 1.035 | Norrby IF attack 0.920 / defence 1.358. League average goals — home 1.459 / away 1.273. Norrby IF bring a strong defensive rating of 1.358 — this is suppressing Ostersunds FK's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 29 Ostersunds FK games / 59 Norrby IF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ostersunds FK 46% | Draw 27% | Norrby IF 27%. Fair-value odds: Ostersunds FK 2.17 | Draw 3.70 | Norrby IF 3.70. Ostersunds FK hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.84. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.84 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Ostersunds FK are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ostersunds FK offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.84 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates corroborate: Ostersunds FK 50% | Norrby IF 90% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ostersunds FK vs Norrby IF | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Jämtkraft Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Nov 2022, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ostersunds FK 46% | Draw 27% | Norrby IF 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 58% | xG Ostersunds FK 1.62 / Norrby IF 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Ostersunds FK attack 0.819 / def 1.035 | Norrby IF attack 0.920 / def 1.358 | league avg home 1.459 / away 1.273 • Poisson stance: Ostersunds FK (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.62
Ostersunds FK xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Norrby IF xG
58%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ostersunds FK vs Norrby IF kick off?
Ostersunds FK vs Norrby IF kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 5 November 2022 at Jämtkraft Arena.
What was the final score in Ostersunds FK vs Norrby IF?
Ostersunds FK 1 - 0 Norrby IF.
Where is Ostersunds FK vs Norrby IF being played?
The match is being played at Jämtkraft Arena.
What competition is Ostersunds FK vs Norrby IF part of?
Ostersunds FK vs Norrby IF is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Ostersunds FK vs Norrby IF?
Our statistical model gives Ostersunds FK a 46% chance of winning, Norrby IF a 27% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Ostersunds FK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ostersunds FK vs Norrby IF?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Ostersunds FK and Norrby IF will score (BTTS).
Will Ostersunds FK vs Norrby IF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ostersunds FK and Norrby IF?
Record (1 meetings): Ostersunds FK 0W | Draws 0 | Norrby IF 1W.
What form are Ostersunds FK and Norrby IF in?
Ostersunds FK (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-D-W-D. Norrby IF (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Ostersunds FK's attack rating (0.82) and Norrby IF's defence rating (1.36), the model arrives at 1.62 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Norrby IF's attack versus Ostersunds FK's defence, projects 1.21 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 29/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 1-0 (8.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ostersunds FK Win
46%
2.20
27%
3.65
27%
3.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.62
Ostersunds FK xG
Total xG
2.84
1.21
Norrby IF xG
2.20
46%
Home win
3.65
27%
Draw
3.69
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.37
Clean Sheet
30%
3.36
20%
5.07
Win to Nil
14%
7.38
5%
18.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 7.1 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 11.5 | 7.0 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 9.4 | 5.7 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 5.1 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ostersunds FK vs Norrby IF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Ostersunds FK and Norrby IF expected to score?
The model projects 1.62 expected goals for Ostersunds FK and 1.21 for Norrby IF, a combined total of 2.84.
How confident is the prediction model for Ostersunds FK vs Norrby IF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Ostersunds FK come into this having played 59 games, going 9W 15D 35L for 0.71 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-D-W-D.
On the other side, Norrby IF sit at 1.34 PPG from 59 outings (21W 16D 22L), a run that reads D-L-L-L-W across their last five.
Norrby IF carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.63 PPG clear of Ostersunds FK — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Ostersunds FK's home form reads 7W 7D 15L across 29 games on their own ground, a 0.97 PPG return.
Away from home, Norrby IF have taken 1.14 points per game from 29 outings (9W 6D 14L).
The Goals Picture
Ostersunds FK are averaging 0.93 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game recently; Norrby IF are on 1.25 scored and 1.34 conceded.
Last 59 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ostersunds FK
Current Season
Norrby IF
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ostersunds FK and Norrby IF in coming into this match?
Ostersunds FK have gone 9W 15D 35L in their last 59 games (0.71 PPG), while Norrby IF have gone 21W 16D 22L in their last 59 (1.34 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ostersunds FK at home or Norrby IF away?
Norrby IF's away record (1.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ostersunds FK at home: 0.97 PPG; Norrby IF away: 1.14 PPG.
Have Ostersunds FK or Norrby IF been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ostersunds FK have kept a clean sheet in 15% of their recent games, Norrby IF in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Ostersunds FK and Norrby IF runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to June 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. The two were last together as recently as 26 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Ostersunds FK's record when hosting Norrby IF specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Ostersunds FK
2
Draws
1
Norrby IF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ostersunds FK and Norrby IF?
From 4 meetings on record, Ostersunds FK have won 1, Norrby IF have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Ostersunds FK and Norrby IF last play each other?
They last met on 26 July 2026, when Norrby IF 2-2 Ostersunds FK.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Ostersunds FK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Norrby IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ostersunds FK 48%, Norrby IF 66% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Ostersunds FK) and 59% (Norrby IF). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 28% and 24% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Ostersunds FK have failed to score in 34% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ostersunds FK home games / Norrby IF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ostersunds FK play Norrby IF?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 48% of Ostersunds FK's games and 66% of Norrby IF's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Ostersunds FK vs Norrby IF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 52% of Ostersunds FK's matches and 59% of Norrby IF's.
Do Ostersunds FK and Norrby IF tend to score early?
Ostersunds FK have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Norrby IF in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Ostersunds FK edge out Norrby IF 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ostersunds FK beat Norrby IF 1-0 at Jämtkraft Arena, Regular Season - 30, in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ostersunds FK 1.62 xG and Norrby IF 1.21 xG, a combined 2.84. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Norrby IF landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ostersunds FK attack 0.82 / defence 1.03 against Norrby IF attack 0.92 / defence 1.36, drawn from 29/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ostersunds FK 46% | Draw 27% | Norrby IF 27%, with Ostersunds FK to win its most likely call at 46%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ostersunds FK 48%, Norrby IF 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ostersunds FK's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not.
Norrby IF's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Norrby IF arrived the stronger side — 1.34 PPG against 0.71. Form was overturned, with Ostersunds FK winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Ostersunds FK (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.45 average — tighter than their form line. Norrby IF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.28 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.