Ostersunds FK 1-1 Gais – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Ostersunds FK at 54% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ostersunds FK vs Gais encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Gais make the trip to Jämtkraft Arena to face Ostersunds FK in Superettan, Regular Season - 1. The match kicks off on Sunday 2 April 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
Ostersunds FK (all games): 5W 4D 1L across 10 Superettan fixtures this term — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W D W D W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Ostersunds FK at Jämtkraft Arena this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Jämtkraft Arena.
Gais have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Superettan outings this season: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: L D W L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Gais haven't played a Superettan game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
On the road, Gais have gone 3W 1D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 1.10 in Ostersunds FK's favour (1.90 vs 0.80) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Trading & In-Play
Ostersunds FK — key trading statistics (32 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games).
Gais — key trading statistics (32 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (away games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ostersunds FK 53% versus Gais 44%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Ostersunds FK 34% | Gais 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ostersunds FK 1.62 xG and Gais 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ostersunds FK attack 0.971 / defence 0.980 | Gais attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.454 / away 1.117. Data: 30 Ostersunds FK games / 0 Gais games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Ostersunds FK 54% | Draw 25% | Gais 22%. Fair-value odds: Ostersunds FK 1.85 | Draw 4.00 | Gais 4.55. Ostersunds FK hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.55. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.55 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Ostersunds FK are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ostersunds FK if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.55 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 47% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Ostersunds FK 40% | Gais 40% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ostersunds FK vs Gais | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Jämtkraft Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 2 Apr 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ostersunds FK 54% | Draw 25% | Gais 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 49% | xG Ostersunds FK 1.62 / Gais 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Ostersunds FK attack 0.971 / def 0.980 | Gais attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.454 / away 1.117 • Poisson stance: Ostersunds FK (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.62
Ostersunds FK xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Gais xG
49%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ostersunds FK vs Gais kick off?
Ostersunds FK vs Gais kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 2 April 2023 at Jämtkraft Arena.
What was the final score in Ostersunds FK vs Gais?
Ostersunds FK 1 - 1 Gais.
Where is Ostersunds FK vs Gais being played?
The match is being played at Jämtkraft Arena.
What competition is Ostersunds FK vs Gais part of?
Ostersunds FK vs Gais is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Ostersunds FK vs Gais?
Our statistical model gives Ostersunds FK a 54% chance of winning, Gais a 22% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Ostersunds FK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ostersunds FK vs Gais?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Ostersunds FK and Gais will score (BTTS).
Will Ostersunds FK vs Gais have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ostersunds FK and Gais?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Ostersunds FK and Gais in?
Ostersunds FK (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-D-W-D-W. Gais (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Ostersunds FK's attacking strength (0.97x league average) is weighed against Gais's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.62. Flip it around — Gais's attack (0.85x) against Ostersunds FK's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 0.93.
These ratings are built from 30/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.1%), 2-0 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ostersunds FK Win
54%
1.86
25%
4.04
22%
4.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
2 – 0
10.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.62
Ostersunds FK xG
Total xG
2.55
0.93
Gais xG
1.86
54%
Home win
4.04
25%
Draw
4.64
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.06
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
39%
2.53
20%
5.07
Win to Nil
21%
4.72
4%
23.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 7.2 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.6 | 11.7 | 5.5 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.3 | 9.5 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.6 | 5.2 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ostersunds FK vs Gais?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Ostersunds FK and Gais expected to score?
The model projects 1.62 expected goals for Ostersunds FK and 0.93 for Gais, a combined total of 2.55.
How confident is the prediction model for Ostersunds FK vs Gais?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Ostersunds FK's recent record stands at 8W 11D 13L from 32 games, a 1.09 PPG return, with W-D-W-D-W in the last five.
Gais, meanwhile, have gone 10W 5D 17L across 32 games — 1.09 PPG, with L-D-W-L-D in their last five. Gais haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.09 PPG for Ostersunds FK against 1.09 for Gais. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Ostersunds FK have managed 6W 5D 5L from 16 games — 1.44 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Gais's away record stands at 5W 2D 9L across 16 trips, a 1.06 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Ostersunds FK are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 1.41 conceded per game recently; Gais are on 1.03 scored and 1.34 conceded.
Last 32 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ostersunds FK
Current Season
Gais
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ostersunds FK and Gais in coming into this match?
Ostersunds FK have gone 8W 11D 13L in their last 32 games (1.09 PPG), while Gais have gone 10W 5D 17L in their last 32 (1.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ostersunds FK at home or Gais away?
Ostersunds FK's home record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ostersunds FK at home: 1.44 PPG; Gais away: 1.06 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since April 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 21 October 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Ostersunds FK
1
Draws
1
Gais
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ostersunds FK and Gais?
From 2 meetings on record, Ostersunds FK have won 0, Gais have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Ostersunds FK and Gais last play each other?
They last met on 21 October 2023, when Gais 2-1 Ostersunds FK.
Who has won more matches between Ostersunds FK and Gais?
Gais have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Ostersunds FK see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Gais see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 44% (Ostersunds FK) and 25% (Gais) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 38% for Ostersunds FK and 31% for Gais.
On the defensive side: Ostersunds FK keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Gais in 31%; Gais in 56%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ostersunds FK home games / Gais away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ostersunds FK play Gais?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Ostersunds FK's recent matches and 25% of Gais's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ostersunds FK vs Gais usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Ostersunds FK's recent games and 31% of Gais's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Ostersunds FK and Gais share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ostersunds FK and Gais finished level at 1-1 at Jämtkraft Arena, Regular Season - 1, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ostersunds FK 1.62 xG and Gais 0.93 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ostersunds FK attack 0.97 / defence 0.98 against Gais attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 30/0 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ostersunds FK 54% | Draw 25% | Gais 22%, with Ostersunds FK to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ostersunds FK 34%, Gais 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ostersunds FK's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Gais's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ostersunds FK 1.09 PPG, Gais 1.09 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.