Osters IF 2-0 AFC Eskilstuna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Osters IF at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Osters IF vs AFC Eskilstuna fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Superettan encounter, Regular Season - 11 sees AFC Eskilstuna travel to Visma Arena to take on Osters IF. The game is scheduled for Saturday 19 June 2021, 14:00 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Osters IF 0.86 xG and AFC Eskilstuna 0.67 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Osters IF attack 0.816 / defence 1.194 | AFC Eskilstuna attack 0.549 / defence 1.192. League average goals — home 0.885 / away 1.027. Data: 10 Osters IF games / 10 AFC Eskilstuna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Osters IF 37% | Draw 36% | AFC Eskilstuna 27%. Fair-value odds: Osters IF 2.70 | Draw 2.78 | AFC Eskilstuna 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 36% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 20% | BTTS probability 28% | Total xG 1.53. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 80% probability — total xG of 1.53 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 72% — AFC Eskilstuna's lower xG of 0.67 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 28%.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Osters IF are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 36% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Osters IF offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 1.53 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 20% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Osters IF vs AFC Eskilstuna | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Visma Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Jun 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Osters IF 37% | Draw 36% | AFC Eskilstuna 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 20% | BTTS 28% | xG Osters IF 0.86 / AFC Eskilstuna 0.67 • Poisson strength factors: Osters IF attack 0.816 / def 1.194 | AFC Eskilstuna attack 0.549 / def 1.192 | league avg home 0.885 / away 1.027 • Poisson stance: Osters IF (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.86
Osters IF xG
Expected Goals
0.67
AFC Eskilstuna xG
28%
BTTS
45%
Over 1.5
20%
Over 2.5
7%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Osters IF vs AFC Eskilstuna kick off?
Osters IF vs AFC Eskilstuna kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 19 June 2021 at Visma Arena.
What was the final score in Osters IF vs AFC Eskilstuna?
Osters IF 2 - 0 AFC Eskilstuna.
Where is Osters IF vs AFC Eskilstuna being played?
The match is being played at Visma Arena.
What competition is Osters IF vs AFC Eskilstuna part of?
Osters IF vs AFC Eskilstuna is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Osters IF vs AFC Eskilstuna?
Our statistical model gives Osters IF a 37% chance of winning, AFC Eskilstuna a 27% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw — making Osters IF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Osters IF vs AFC Eskilstuna?
Our model estimates a 28% probability that both Osters IF and AFC Eskilstuna will score (BTTS).
Will Osters IF vs AFC Eskilstuna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 20%.
What is the head-to-head record between Osters IF and AFC Eskilstuna?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Osters IF and AFC Eskilstuna in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Osters IF's attack rating (0.82) and AFC Eskilstuna's defence rating (1.19), the model arrives at 0.86 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, AFC Eskilstuna's attack versus Osters IF's defence, projects 0.67 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 10/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 23.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (16.9%), 1-1 (14.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 54% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Osters IF Win
37%
2.67
36%
2.78
27%
3.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
21.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
18.6%
Home win
0 – 1
14.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.86
Osters IF xG
Total xG
1.53
0.67
AFC Eskilstuna xG
2.67
37%
Home win
2.78
36%
Draw
3.77
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
45%
Over 1.5
2.22
55%
Under 1.5
1.82
20%
Over 2.5
5.00
80%
Under 2.5
1.25
7%
Over 3.5
14.29
93%
Under 3.5
1.08
2%
Over 4.5
50.00
98%
Under 4.5
1.02
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
28%
BTTS Yes
3.53
72%
BTTS No
1.39
Clean Sheet
51%
1.96
42%
2.37
Win to Nil
19%
5.23
11%
8.91
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 21.6 | 14.5 | 4.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 18.6 | 12.5 | 4.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 8.0 | 5.4 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 2.3 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Osters IF vs AFC Eskilstuna?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 23.2%.
How many goals are Osters IF and AFC Eskilstuna expected to score?
The model projects 0.86 expected goals for Osters IF and 0.67 for AFC Eskilstuna, a combined total of 1.53.
How confident is the prediction model for Osters IF vs AFC Eskilstuna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Osters IF
Pre-Season
AFC Eskilstuna
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to June 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 August 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 15 Apr 2023, when Osters IF won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Osters IF's record when hosting AFC Eskilstuna specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Osters IF
2
Draws
0
AFC Eskilstuna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Osters IF and AFC Eskilstuna?
From 6 meetings on record, Osters IF have won 4, AFC Eskilstuna have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Osters IF and AFC Eskilstuna last play each other?
They last met on 5 August 2023, when AFC Eskilstuna 1-1 Osters IF.
Who has won more matches between Osters IF and AFC Eskilstuna?
Osters IF have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Osters IF home games / AFC Eskilstuna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Osters IF cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over AFC Eskilstuna.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Osters IF beat AFC Eskilstuna 2-0 at Visma Arena, Regular Season - 11, in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Osters IF 0.86 xG and AFC Eskilstuna 0.67 xG, a combined 1.53. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Osters IF beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Osters IF attack 0.82 / defence 1.19 against AFC Eskilstuna attack 0.55 / defence 1.19, drawn from 10/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Osters IF 37% | Draw 36% | AFC Eskilstuna 27%, with Osters IF to win its most likely call at 37%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 20%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 45% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 28% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.