Orgryte IS 0-1 Osters IF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 42% as Orgryte IS take on Osters IF.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Bravida Arena plays host to Orgryte IS versus Osters IF in Superettan, Regular Season - 1. Kick-off: Sunday 11 April 2021 at 12:00 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Orgryte IS 0.69 xG and Osters IF 0.50 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Orgryte IS attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Osters IF attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 0.707 / away 0.508. Data: 0 Orgryte IS games / 0 Osters IF games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Orgryte IS 35% | Draw 42% | Osters IF 23%. Fair-value odds: Orgryte IS 2.86 | Draw 2.38 | Osters IF 4.35. The draw (42%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 12% | BTTS probability 20% | Total xG 1.19. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 88% probability — total xG of 1.19 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 80% — Osters IF's lower xG of 0.50 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 20%.
Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 42% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 35% and away win at 23% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 1.19 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 12% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Orgryte IS vs Osters IF | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Bravida Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 11 Apr 2021, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Orgryte IS 35% | Draw 42% | Osters IF 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 12% | BTTS 20% | xG Orgryte IS 0.69 / Osters IF 0.50 • Poisson strength factors: Orgryte IS attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Osters IF attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 0.707 / away 0.508 • Poisson stance: Draw (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.69
Orgryte IS xG
Expected Goals
0.50
Osters IF xG
20%
BTTS
33%
Over 1.5
12%
Over 2.5
3%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Orgryte IS vs Osters IF kick off?
Orgryte IS vs Osters IF kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 11 April 2021 at Bravida Arena.
What was the final score in Orgryte IS vs Osters IF?
Orgryte IS 0 - 1 Osters IF.
Where is Orgryte IS vs Osters IF being played?
The match is being played at Bravida Arena.
What competition is Orgryte IS vs Osters IF part of?
Orgryte IS vs Osters IF is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Orgryte IS vs Osters IF?
Our statistical model gives Orgryte IS a 35% chance of winning, Osters IF a 23% chance, and a 42% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Orgryte IS vs Osters IF?
Our model estimates a 20% probability that both Orgryte IS and Osters IF will score (BTTS).
Will Orgryte IS vs Osters IF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 12%.
What is the head-to-head record between Orgryte IS and Osters IF?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Orgryte IS and Osters IF in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Orgryte IS's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against Osters IF's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.69. Flip it around — Osters IF's attack (0.85x) against Orgryte IS's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 0.50.
These ratings are built from 0/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 31.8%. Close behind: 1-0 (19.7%), 0-1 (13.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 65% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
35%
2.84
42%
2.39
23%
4.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
30.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
21.1%
Home win
0 – 1
15.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.69
Orgryte IS xG
Total xG
1.19
0.50
Osters IF xG
2.84
35%
Home win
2.39
42%
Draw
4.37
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
33%
Over 1.5
3.03
67%
Under 1.5
1.49
12%
Over 2.5
8.33
88%
Under 2.5
1.14
3%
Over 3.5
33.33
97%
Under 3.5
1.03
1%
Over 4.5
100.00
99%
Under 4.5
1.01
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
20%
BTTS Yes
5.12
80%
BTTS No
1.24
Clean Sheet
61%
1.64
50%
2.00
Win to Nil
21%
4.66
11%
8.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 30.5 | 15.2 | 3.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 21.1 | 10.5 | 2.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 7.3 | 3.6 | 0.9 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 3 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Orgryte IS vs Osters IF?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 31.8%.
How many goals are Orgryte IS and Osters IF expected to score?
The model projects 0.69 expected goals for Orgryte IS and 0.50 for Osters IF, a combined total of 1.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Orgryte IS vs Osters IF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Orgryte IS
Pre-Season
Osters IF
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 17 August 2024, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Orgryte IS have gone 0W 2D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Osters IF — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
0
Orgryte IS
4
Draws
4
Osters IF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Orgryte IS and Osters IF?
From 8 meetings on record, Orgryte IS have won 0, Osters IF have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Orgryte IS and Osters IF last play each other?
They last met on 17 August 2024, when Osters IF 1-0 Orgryte IS.
Who has won more matches between Orgryte IS and Osters IF?
Osters IF have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Orgryte IS home games / Osters IF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Shock result as Osters IF defy the odds to beat Orgryte IS 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Osters IF beat Orgryte IS 0-1 at Bravida Arena, Regular Season - 1, in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Orgryte IS 0.69 xG and Osters IF 0.50 xG, a combined 1.19. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Orgryte IS attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Osters IF attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 0/0 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Orgryte IS 35% | Draw 42% | Osters IF 23%, with the draw its most likely call at 42%. Instead the game produced a Osters IF win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 12%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 33% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 20% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.