Orebro SK 0-0 Trelleborg – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Trelleborg at 41% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Orebro SK face Trelleborg.

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Analysis

Trelleborg make the trip to Behrn Arena to face Orebro SK in Superettan (matchday 6). The match kicks off on Monday 5 May 2025 at 19:00 UK time.

Current Form

Orebro SK's record over their last 10 games: 4W 4D 2L (1.60 PPG). Last five: D W L W D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.

Orebro SK's form when playing at home: 5W 4D 1L across their last 10 home games (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.

Trelleborg (all games): 5W 1D 4L across their last 10 — 1.60 points per game. Last five: W L W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.

Trelleborg away from home: 3W 2D 5L from their last 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.60 PPG for Orebro SK against 1.60 for Trelleborg. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 6 H2H matches in our data, Trelleborg edge it 2 wins to 0, with 4 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.

The 6 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 13 Sep 2024, ended Orebro SK 1–2 Trelleborg — a Trelleborg win.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading Data

Orebro SK goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 60 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 50% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.

Trelleborg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 60 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; of the 22 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 32%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Orebro SK 53% versus Trelleborg 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Orebro SK 57% | Trelleborg 50%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Orebro SK surrender their half-time lead 40% of the time, while Trelleborg have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 32% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle. Note also that Trelleborg surrender HT leads in 33% of cases while Orebro SK recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 33% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Orebro SK 1.00 xG and Trelleborg 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Orebro SK attack 0.755 / defence 1.147 | Trelleborg attack 0.836 / defence 1.015. League average goals — home 1.308 / away 1.280. Orebro SK's attack rating of 0.755 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.00. Data: built from Orebro SK's last 35 games and Trelleborg's last 35.

Result probabilities: Orebro SK 30% | Draw 29% | Trelleborg 41%. Fair-value odds: Orebro SK 3.33 | Draw 3.49 | Trelleborg 2.42. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS Yes probability 45% | Total xG 2.23. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.23 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 55% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Trelleborg are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Trelleborg if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.23 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 62% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Orebro SK 50% (last 10 home games) | Trelleborg 40% (last 10 away games).

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