Orebro SK 1-3 IK brage – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates IK brage at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Orebro SK vs IK brage fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Behrn Arena plays host to Orebro SK versus IK brage in Superettan, Regular Season - 16. Kick-off: Saturday 30 July 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Orebro SK have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Superettan outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: L L D W W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Orebro SK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Behrn Arena, Orebro SK have gone 5W 1D 4L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
IK brage (all games): 4W 4D 2L across 10 Superettan outings this term — 1.60 points per game. Last five: L W D D L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.90. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for IK brage, so this record blends games from this season and last.
IK brage away from home this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 away games — 1.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.70 PPG for Orebro SK against 1.60 for IK brage. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Orebro SK 0W, IK brage 1W, 0D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 4 Apr 2022, ended 0–3 with IK brage winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Orebro SK — key trading statistics (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
IK brage — key trading statistics (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Orebro SK 42% versus IK brage 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Orebro SK 51% | IK brage 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Orebro SK 1.15 xG and IK brage 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Orebro SK attack 0.867 / defence 0.937 | IK brage attack 1.079 / defence 0.891. League average goals — home 1.493 / away 1.285. Data: 15 Orebro SK games / 45 IK brage games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Orebro SK 31% | Draw 31% | IK brage 38%. Fair-value odds: Orebro SK 3.23 | Draw 3.23 | IK brage 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.45. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.45 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, IK brage are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on IK brage if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.45 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 2.9 goals per game points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Orebro SK 50% | IK brage 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Orebro SK vs IK brage | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Behrn Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Jul 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Orebro SK 31% | Draw 31% | IK brage 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 52% | xG Orebro SK 1.15 / IK brage 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: Orebro SK attack 0.867 / def 0.937 | IK brage attack 1.079 / def 0.891 | league avg home 1.493 / away 1.285 • Poisson stance: IK brage (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
Orebro SK xG
Expected Goals
1.30
IK brage xG
52%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Orebro SK vs IK brage kick off?
Orebro SK vs IK brage kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 30 July 2022 at Behrn Arena.
What was the final score in Orebro SK vs IK brage?
Orebro SK 1 - 3 IK brage.
Where is Orebro SK vs IK brage being played?
The match is being played at Behrn Arena.
What competition is Orebro SK vs IK brage part of?
Orebro SK vs IK brage is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Orebro SK vs IK brage?
Our statistical model gives Orebro SK a 31% chance of winning, IK brage a 38% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making IK brage the favourite.
Will both teams score in Orebro SK vs IK brage?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Orebro SK and IK brage will score (BTTS).
Will Orebro SK vs IK brage have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Orebro SK and IK brage?
Record (1 meetings): Orebro SK 0W | Draws 0 | IK brage 1W.
What form are Orebro SK and IK brage in?
Orebro SK (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-L-D-W-W. IK brage (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Orebro SK's attacking strength (0.87x league average) is weighed against IK brage's defensive record (0.89x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.15. Flip it around — IK brage's attack (1.08x) against Orebro SK's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 1.30.
These ratings are built from 15/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.3%), 0-1 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
IK brage Win
31%
3.22
31%
3.23
38%
2.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.2%
Away win
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
Orebro SK xG
Total xG
2.45
1.30
IK brage xG
3.22
31%
Home win
3.23
31%
Draw
2.63
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.94
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
27%
3.66
32%
3.17
Win to Nil
8%
11.80
12%
8.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 11.2 | 7.3 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 12.9 | 8.4 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 7.4 | 4.8 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.9 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Orebro SK vs IK brage?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Orebro SK and IK brage expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for Orebro SK and 1.30 for IK brage, a combined total of 2.45.
How confident is the prediction model for Orebro SK vs IK brage?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Orebro SK come into this having played 45 games, going 11W 8D 26L for 0.91 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-W-W. The sample for Orebro SK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, IK brage sit at 1.44 PPG from 45 outings (17W 14D 14L), a run that reads L-W-D-D-L across their last five. The sample for IK brage is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
IK brage carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.53 PPG clear of Orebro SK — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Orebro SK's home form reads 7W 4D 11L across 22 games on their own ground, a 1.14 PPG return.
Away from home, IK brage have taken 1.32 points per game from 22 outings (7W 8D 7L).
Attack vs Defence
Orebro SK are averaging 0.89 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; IK brage are on 1.49 scored and 1.27 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: IK brage in 62%.
Last 45 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Orebro SK
Blended
IK brage
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Orebro SK and IK brage in coming into this match?
Orebro SK have gone 11W 8D 26L in their last 45 games (0.91 PPG), while IK brage have gone 17W 14D 14L in their last 45 (1.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Orebro SK at home or IK brage away?
IK brage's away record (1.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Orebro SK at home: 1.14 PPG; IK brage away: 1.32 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 9 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. The two were last together as recently as 8 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: IK brage won 3-0 on 4 Apr 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Orebro SK have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against IK brage — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
2
Orebro SK
1
Draws
6
IK brage
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Orebro SK and IK brage?
From 9 meetings on record, Orebro SK have won 2, IK brage have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Orebro SK and IK brage last play each other?
They last met on 8 May 2026, when Orebro SK 0-3 IK brage.
Who has won more matches between Orebro SK and IK brage?
IK brage have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Orebro SK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches.
IK brage are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Orebro SK 50%, IK brage 73% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Orebro SK) and 59% (IK brage).
On the defensive side: Orebro SK have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Orebro SK home games / IK brage away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Orebro SK play IK brage?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Orebro SK's games and 73% of IK brage's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Orebro SK vs IK brage usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Orebro SK's recent games and 59% of IK brage's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Orebro SK and IK brage tend to score early?
Orebro SK have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, IK brage in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
IK brage cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Orebro SK.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
IK brage beat Orebro SK 1-3 at Behrn Arena, Regular Season - 16, in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Orebro SK 1.15 xG and IK brage 1.30 xG, a combined 2.45. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. IK brage outscored their 1.30 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Orebro SK attack 0.87 / defence 0.94 against IK brage attack 1.08 / defence 0.89, drawn from 15/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Orebro SK 31% | Draw 31% | IK brage 38%, with IK brage to win its most likely call at 38%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Orebro SK 51%, IK brage 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Orebro SK's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did.
IK brage's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, IK brage arrived the stronger side — 1.44 PPG against 0.91. Form held, and they took the win. Orebro SK (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.45 concession average — a leakier day than usual. IK brage (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.41 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.