Oddevold 1-2 GIF Sundsvall – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates GIF Sundsvall at 37% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Oddevold vs GIF Sundsvall encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Fixture Analysis

Oddevold welcome GIF Sundsvall to Rimnersvallen in Superettan (matchday 5). Kick-off is Saturday 26 April 2025 at 15:00 UK time.

Recent Form

Across their last 10 games, Oddevold have gone 3W 5D 2L — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: D D D W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).

Oddevold's form when playing at home: 2W 5D 3L across their last 10 home games (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

GIF Sundsvall — last 10 games: 6W 1D 3L — 1.90 PPG. Last five: D W W W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.10. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

GIF Sundsvall away from home: 4W 2D 4L from their last 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour GIF Sundsvall — 0.50 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.90 vs 1.40). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.

H2H

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 2 H2H matches, Oddevold have won 1, GIF Sundsvall 1, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 2 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 26 Aug 2024, ended Oddevold 0–3 GIF Sundsvall — a GIF Sundsvall win.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading Patterns

Oddevold in-play and half-time data (last 30 games, 15 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 43% of the time; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 43%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.

GIF Sundsvall in-play and half-time data (last 30 games, 15 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; of the 4 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Oddevold 60% versus GIF Sundsvall 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Oddevold 63% | GIF Sundsvall 50%). Note also that GIF Sundsvall surrender HT leads in 25% of cases while Oddevold recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 43% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Oddevold 0.95 xG and GIF Sundsvall 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Oddevold attack 0.877 / defence 1.209 | GIF Sundsvall attack 0.770 / defence 0.803. League average goals — home 1.351 / away 1.119. GIF Sundsvall's attack rating of 0.770 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.04. Oddevold's defence rating of 1.209 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing GIF Sundsvall's projected output up. Data: built from Oddevold's last 34 games and GIF Sundsvall's last 34.

Result probabilities: Oddevold 32% | Draw 31% | GIF Sundsvall 37%. Fair-value odds: Oddevold 3.11 | Draw 3.24 | GIF Sundsvall 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS Yes probability 40% | Total xG 1.99. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.99 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 60% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates GIF Sundsvall as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on GIF Sundsvall offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 1.99 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 68% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Oddevold 60% (last 10 home games) | GIF Sundsvall 30% (last 10 away games).

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights