Norrby IF 0-0 United Nordic – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates United Nordic at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Norrby IF vs United Nordic fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Borås Arena plays host to Norrby IF versus United Nordic in Superettan, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off: Sunday 21 June 2026 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Norrby IF have collected 2.00 PPG across 2 Superettan outings this season: 1W 1D 0L. Last five: W D. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Norrby IF have played only a handful of Superettan games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Norrby IF 1.42 xG and United Nordic 1.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Norrby IF attack 0.852 / defence 1.171 | United Nordic attack 0.851 / defence 1.137. League average goals — home 1.468 / away 1.434. Data: 12 Norrby IF games / 12 United Nordic games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Norrby IF 37% | Draw 25% | United Nordic 38%. Fair-value odds: Norrby IF 2.70 | Draw 4.00 | United Nordic 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.85. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.85 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates United Nordic as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on United Nordic if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.85 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Norrby IF vs United Nordic | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Borås Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 21 Jun 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Norrby IF 37% | Draw 25% | United Nordic 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 58% | xG Norrby IF 1.42 / United Nordic 1.43 • Poisson strength factors: Norrby IF attack 0.852 / def 1.171 | United Nordic attack 0.851 / def 1.137 | league avg home 1.468 / away 1.434 • Poisson stance: United Nordic (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
Norrby IF xG
Expected Goals
1.43
United Nordic xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Norrby IF vs United Nordic kick off?
Norrby IF vs United Nordic kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 21 June 2026 at Borås Arena.
What was the final score in Norrby IF vs United Nordic?
Norrby IF 0 - 0 United Nordic.
Where is Norrby IF vs United Nordic being played?
The match is being played at Borås Arena.
What competition is Norrby IF vs United Nordic part of?
Norrby IF vs United Nordic is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Norrby IF vs United Nordic?
Our statistical model gives Norrby IF a 37% chance of winning, United Nordic a 38% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making United Nordic the favourite.
Will both teams score in Norrby IF vs United Nordic?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Norrby IF and United Nordic will score (BTTS).
Will Norrby IF vs United Nordic have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Norrby IF and United Nordic?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Norrby IF and United Nordic in?
Norrby IF (all comps): 1W-1D-0L in 2 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D. Norrby IF home split: 3.00 PPG from 1 | GF 3.00 / GA 2.00 | CS 0.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Norrby IF's attack rating (0.85) and United Nordic's defence rating (1.14), the model arrives at 1.42 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — United Nordic's attack (0.85x) against Norrby IF's defence (1.17x) — and the away total comes out at 1.43.
These ratings are built from 12/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.3%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.4%), 2-1 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
United Nordic Win
37%
2.68
25%
4.00
38%
2.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.4%
Away win
0 – 1
8.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
Norrby IF xG
Total xG
2.85
1.43
United Nordic xG
2.68
37%
Home win
4.00
25%
Draw
2.65
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.37
Clean Sheet
24%
4.18
24%
4.14
Win to Nil
9%
11.22
9%
10.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 8.3 | 5.9 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 11.7 | 8.4 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 8.3 | 6.0 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 4.0 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Norrby IF vs United Nordic?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Norrby IF and United Nordic expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for Norrby IF and 1.43 for United Nordic, a combined total of 2.85.
How confident is the prediction model for Norrby IF vs United Nordic?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Norrby IF
Pre-Season
United Nordic
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 1 times since June 2026 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. The two were last together as recently as 21 June 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 1 Meetings
0
Norrby IF
1
Draws
0
United Nordic
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Norrby IF and United Nordic?
From 1 meetings on record, Norrby IF have won 0, United Nordic have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Norrby IF and United Nordic last play each other?
They last met on 21 June 2026, when Norrby IF 0-0 United Nordic.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Norrby IF home games / United Nordic away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Stalemate at Norrby IF's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Norrby IF and United Nordic finished level at 0-0 at Borås Arena, Regular Season - 13, in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Norrby IF 1.42 xG and United Nordic 1.43 xG, a combined 2.85. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Norrby IF fell 1.4 short of their projected output. United Nordic landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Norrby IF attack 0.85 / defence 1.17 against United Nordic attack 0.85 / defence 1.14, drawn from 12/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Norrby IF 37% | Draw 25% | United Nordic 38%, with United Nordic to win its most likely call at 38%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.