Norrby IF 2-0 IFK Varnamo – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates IFK Varnamo at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Norrby IF vs IFK Varnamo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
IFK Varnamo make the trip to Borås Arena to face Norrby IF in Superettan, Regular Season - 11. The match kicks off on Saturday 19 June 2021 at 14:00 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Norrby IF 0.86 xG and IFK Varnamo 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Norrby IF attack 1.015 / defence 1.241 | IFK Varnamo attack 0.743 / defence 0.957. League average goals — home 0.885 / away 1.027. Data: 10 Norrby IF games / 9 IFK Varnamo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Norrby IF 31% | Draw 33% | IFK Varnamo 36%. Fair-value odds: Norrby IF 3.23 | Draw 3.03 | IFK Varnamo 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 27% | BTTS probability 35% | Total xG 1.81. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 73% probability — total xG of 1.81 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 65% — Norrby IF's lower xG of 0.86 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 35%.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates IFK Varnamo as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on IFK Varnamo if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 1.81 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 27% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Norrby IF vs IFK Varnamo | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Borås Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Jun 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Norrby IF 31% | Draw 33% | IFK Varnamo 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 27% | BTTS 35% | xG Norrby IF 0.86 / IFK Varnamo 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Norrby IF attack 1.015 / def 1.241 | IFK Varnamo attack 0.743 / def 0.957 | league avg home 0.885 / away 1.027 • Poisson stance: IFK Varnamo (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.86
Norrby IF xG
Expected Goals
0.95
IFK Varnamo xG
35%
BTTS
54%
Over 1.5
27%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Norrby IF vs IFK Varnamo kick off?
Norrby IF vs IFK Varnamo kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 19 June 2021 at Borås Arena.
What was the final score in Norrby IF vs IFK Varnamo?
Norrby IF 2 - 0 IFK Varnamo.
Where is Norrby IF vs IFK Varnamo being played?
The match is being played at Borås Arena.
What competition is Norrby IF vs IFK Varnamo part of?
Norrby IF vs IFK Varnamo is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Norrby IF vs IFK Varnamo?
Our statistical model gives Norrby IF a 31% chance of winning, IFK Varnamo a 36% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making IFK Varnamo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Norrby IF vs IFK Varnamo?
Our model estimates a 35% probability that both Norrby IF and IFK Varnamo will score (BTTS).
Will Norrby IF vs IFK Varnamo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 27%.
What is the head-to-head record between Norrby IF and IFK Varnamo?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Norrby IF and IFK Varnamo in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Norrby IF's attack at 1.01x the league average against IFK Varnamo's defence at 0.96x — combine the two and it projects 0.86 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — IFK Varnamo's attack (0.74x) against Norrby IF's defence (1.24x) — and the away total comes out at 0.95.
These ratings are built from 10/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 18.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 0-1 (13.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
IFK Varnamo Win
31%
3.20
33%
3.05
36%
2.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
16.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
15.5%
Away win
1 – 0
14.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.86
Norrby IF xG
Total xG
1.81
0.95
IFK Varnamo xG
3.20
31%
Home win
3.05
33%
Draw
2.78
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
54%
Over 1.5
1.85
46%
Under 1.5
2.17
27%
Over 2.5
3.70
73%
Under 2.5
1.37
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
35%
BTTS Yes
2.83
65%
BTTS No
1.55
Clean Sheet
39%
2.58
42%
2.36
Win to Nil
12%
8.26
15%
6.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.4 | 15.5 | 7.4 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.1 | 13.4 | 6.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 5.7 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Norrby IF vs IFK Varnamo?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.1%.
How many goals are Norrby IF and IFK Varnamo expected to score?
The model projects 0.86 expected goals for Norrby IF and 0.95 for IFK Varnamo, a combined total of 1.81.
How confident is the prediction model for Norrby IF vs IFK Varnamo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Norrby IF
Pre-Season
IFK Varnamo
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 3 times that we have on record, stretching back to June 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. The two were last together as recently as 17 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 3 Meetings
2
Norrby IF
1
Draws
0
IFK Varnamo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Norrby IF and IFK Varnamo?
From 3 meetings on record, Norrby IF have won 2, IFK Varnamo have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Norrby IF and IFK Varnamo last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when IFK Varnamo 2-2 Norrby IF.
Who has won more matches between Norrby IF and IFK Varnamo?
Norrby IF have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 3 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Norrby IF home games / IFK Varnamo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Norrby IF cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over IFK Varnamo.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Norrby IF beat IFK Varnamo 2-0 at Borås Arena, Regular Season - 11, in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Norrby IF 0.86 xG and IFK Varnamo 0.95 xG, a combined 1.81. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Norrby IF beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. IFK Varnamo landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Norrby IF attack 1.01 / defence 1.24 against IFK Varnamo attack 0.74 / defence 0.96, drawn from 10/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Norrby IF 31% | Draw 33% | IFK Varnamo 36%, with IFK Varnamo to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Norrby IF win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 27%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 54% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.