Norrby IF 1-0 Falkenbergs FF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Falkenbergs FF at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Norrby IF vs Falkenbergs FF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Superettan encounter, Regular Season - 29 sees Falkenbergs FF travel to Borås Arena to take on Norrby IF. The game is scheduled for Saturday 20 November 2021, 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Norrby IF stand at 2W 5D 3L from 10 Superettan matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W L D W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Norrby IF at Borås Arena this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Superettan games this season, Falkenbergs FF have recorded 1W 4D 5L from 10 outings — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D L L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
When travelling in Superettan this season, Falkenbergs FF have posted 1W 4D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Norrby IF at 1.10 PPG versus Falkenbergs FF's 0.70. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Norrby IF register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Falkenbergs FF in 80% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Norrby IF have won 0, Falkenbergs FF 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Aug 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Norrby IF trading profile (28 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games).
Falkenbergs FF trading profile (28 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Norrby IF 54% and Falkenbergs FF 68% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Norrby IF 43% | Falkenbergs FF 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Norrby IF 1.34 xG and Falkenbergs FF 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Norrby IF attack 0.907 / defence 1.307 | Falkenbergs FF attack 0.819 / defence 1.324. League average goals — home 1.115 / away 1.254. Falkenbergs FF bring a strong defensive rating of 1.324 — this is suppressing Norrby IF's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 28 Norrby IF games / 28 Falkenbergs FF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Norrby IF 36% | Draw 28% | Falkenbergs FF 36%. Fair-value odds: Norrby IF 2.78 | Draw 3.57 | Falkenbergs FF 2.78. The draw (28%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.68. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.68 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 28% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 36% and away win at 36% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 2.68 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 50% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Norrby IF 60% | Falkenbergs FF 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Norrby IF vs Falkenbergs FF | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Borås Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Nov 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Norrby IF 36% | Draw 28% | Falkenbergs FF 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 55% | xG Norrby IF 1.34 / Falkenbergs FF 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: Norrby IF attack 0.907 / def 1.307 | Falkenbergs FF attack 0.819 / def 1.324 | league avg home 1.115 / away 1.254 • Poisson stance: Draw (28%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Norrby IF xG
Expected Goals
1.34
Falkenbergs FF xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Norrby IF vs Falkenbergs FF kick off?
Norrby IF vs Falkenbergs FF kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 20 November 2021 at Borås Arena.
What was the final score in Norrby IF vs Falkenbergs FF?
Norrby IF 1 - 0 Falkenbergs FF.
Where is Norrby IF vs Falkenbergs FF being played?
The match is being played at Borås Arena.
What competition is Norrby IF vs Falkenbergs FF part of?
Norrby IF vs Falkenbergs FF is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Norrby IF vs Falkenbergs FF?
Our statistical model gives Norrby IF a 36% chance of winning, Falkenbergs FF a 36% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Norrby IF vs Falkenbergs FF?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Norrby IF and Falkenbergs FF will score (BTTS).
Will Norrby IF vs Falkenbergs FF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Norrby IF and Falkenbergs FF?
Record (1 meetings): Norrby IF 0W | Draws 1 | Falkenbergs FF 0W.
What form are Norrby IF and Falkenbergs FF in?
Norrby IF (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-D-W-L. Falkenbergs FF (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.10 | L5 D-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Norrby IF's attacking strength (0.91x league average) is weighed against Falkenbergs FF's defensive record (1.32x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.34. The same calculation in reverse, Falkenbergs FF's attack versus Norrby IF's defence, projects 1.34 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 28/28 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (8.5%), 1-2 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Falkenbergs FF Win
36%
2.77
28%
3.63
36%
2.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.2%
Away win
1 – 0
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Norrby IF xG
Total xG
2.68
1.34
Falkenbergs FF xG
2.77
36%
Home win
3.63
28%
Draw
2.75
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.24
Clean Sheet
26%
3.83
26%
3.81
Win to Nil
9%
10.59
10%
10.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 9.2 | 6.2 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 12.3 | 8.3 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 8.2 | 5.5 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.7 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Norrby IF vs Falkenbergs FF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Norrby IF and Falkenbergs FF expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Norrby IF and 1.34 for Falkenbergs FF, a combined total of 2.68.
How confident is the prediction model for Norrby IF vs Falkenbergs FF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 28 outings, Norrby IF have picked up 1.50 PPG on a 11W 9D 8L record — W-L-D-W-L across the most recent five.
Falkenbergs FF's form line: 6W 7D 15L from 28 games, 0.89 PPG, last five D-L-L-D-L.
Put side by side, Norrby IF are the form team by 0.61 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Falkenbergs FF.
Venue Form
On home soil, Norrby IF have posted 1.43 PPG from 14 outings (5W 5D 4L).
On the road, Falkenbergs FF have gone 2W 4D 8L from 14 away games — 0.71 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Norrby IF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Norrby IF are averaging 1.36 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; Falkenbergs FF are on 1.18 scored and 1.86 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Falkenbergs FF in 68%.
Last 28 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Norrby IF
Current Season
Falkenbergs FF
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Norrby IF and Falkenbergs FF in coming into this match?
Norrby IF have gone 11W 9D 8L in their last 28 games (1.50 PPG), while Falkenbergs FF have gone 6W 7D 15L in their last 28 (0.89 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Norrby IF at home or Falkenbergs FF away?
Norrby IF's home record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Norrby IF at home: 1.43 PPG; Falkenbergs FF away: 0.71 PPG.
Have Norrby IF or Falkenbergs FF been keeping clean sheets recently?
Norrby IF have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Falkenbergs FF in 11%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
3 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. They last met on 19 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Norrby IF's record when hosting Falkenbergs FF specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 3 Meetings
1
Norrby IF
2
Draws
0
Falkenbergs FF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Norrby IF and Falkenbergs FF?
From 3 meetings on record, Norrby IF have won 1, Falkenbergs FF have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Norrby IF and Falkenbergs FF last play each other?
They last met on 19 April 2026, when Norrby IF 2-2 Falkenbergs FF.
Who has won more matches between Norrby IF and Falkenbergs FF?
Norrby IF have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Norrby IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Falkenbergs FF see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Norrby IF 57%, Falkenbergs FF 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Norrby IF) and 57% (Falkenbergs FF).
On the defensive side: Norrby IF have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Norrby IF home games / Falkenbergs FF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Norrby IF play Falkenbergs FF?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Norrby IF's games and 71% of Falkenbergs FF's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Norrby IF vs Falkenbergs FF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Norrby IF's recent games and 57% of Falkenbergs FF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Norrby IF and Falkenbergs FF tend to score early?
Norrby IF have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Falkenbergs FF in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Norrby IF defy the odds to beat Falkenbergs FF 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Norrby IF beat Falkenbergs FF 1-0 at Borås Arena, Regular Season - 29, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Norrby IF 1.34 xG and Falkenbergs FF 1.34 xG, a combined 2.68. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Falkenbergs FF landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Norrby IF attack 0.91 / defence 1.31 against Falkenbergs FF attack 0.82 / defence 1.32, drawn from 28/28 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Norrby IF 36% | Draw 28% | Falkenbergs FF 36%, with Norrby IF to win its most likely call at 36%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Norrby IF 43%, Falkenbergs FF 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Norrby IF's trading profile (28 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Falkenbergs FF's trading profile (28 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Norrby IF arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 0.89. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Norrby IF (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.21 average — tighter than their form line. Falkenbergs FF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.