Ljungskile SK vs Norrby IF – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ljungskile SK at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ljungskile SK vs Norrby IF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Ljungskile SK and Norrby IF meet at in Superettan, Regular Season - 23. This fixture gets under way on Wednesday 9 September 2026 at 17:00 UTC.
Form
Ljungskile SK (all games): 3W 4D 3L across 10 Superettan fixtures this term — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D L L D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Ljungskile SK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ljungskile SK's form when playing at home: 4W 1D 5L across 10 games at this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Norrby IF have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Superettan outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: D W L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Norrby IF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Superettan this season, Norrby IF have posted 1W 5D 4L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.30 PPG for Ljungskile SK against 1.30 for Norrby IF. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Ljungskile SK, 1 for Norrby IF and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 23 May 2026, ended 1–2 with Norrby IF winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Ljungskile SK goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (21 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 38% of games.
Norrby IF goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (21 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ljungskile SK 57% versus Norrby IF 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ljungskile SK 48% | Norrby IF 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ljungskile SK 1.10 xG and Norrby IF 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ljungskile SK attack 0.796 / defence 1.199 | Norrby IF attack 0.607 / defence 0.983. League average goals — home 1.402 / away 1.295. Ljungskile SK's attack strength of 0.796 is below the league average — the 1.10 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 21 Ljungskile SK games / 21 Norrby IF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ljungskile SK 37% | Draw 33% | Norrby IF 29%. Fair-value odds: Ljungskile SK 2.70 | Draw 3.03 | Norrby IF 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.04. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.04 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Ljungskile SK are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ljungskile SK if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.04 combined xG gives a 33% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 42%. Form rates are neutral: Ljungskile SK 60% | Norrby IF 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ljungskile SK vs Norrby IF | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: • Kick-off: Wednesday 9 Sep 2026, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ljungskile SK 37% | Draw 33% | Norrby IF 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 42% | xG Ljungskile SK 1.10 / Norrby IF 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Ljungskile SK attack 0.796 / def 1.199 | Norrby IF attack 0.607 / def 0.983 | league avg home 1.402 / away 1.295 • Poisson stance: Ljungskile SK (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.10
Ljungskile SK xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Norrby IF xG
42%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ljungskile SK vs Norrby IF kick off?
Ljungskile SK vs Norrby IF is scheduled to kick off at 17:00 on Wednesday 9 September 2026.
What competition is Ljungskile SK vs Norrby IF part of?
Ljungskile SK vs Norrby IF is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Ljungskile SK vs Norrby IF?
Our statistical model gives Ljungskile SK a 37% chance of winning, Norrby IF a 29% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Ljungskile SK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ljungskile SK vs Norrby IF?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Ljungskile SK and Norrby IF will score (BTTS).
Will Ljungskile SK vs Norrby IF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ljungskile SK and Norrby IF?
Record (1 meetings): Ljungskile SK 0W | Draws 0 | Norrby IF 1W.
What form are Ljungskile SK and Norrby IF in?
Ljungskile SK (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-L-D-L. Norrby IF (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Ljungskile SK's attack rating (0.80) and Norrby IF's defence rating (0.98), the model arrives at 1.10 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Norrby IF's attack (0.61x) against Ljungskile SK's defence (1.20x) — and the away total comes out at 0.94.
These ratings are built from 21/21 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.8%), 1-0 (12.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ljungskile SK Win
37%
2.67
33%
3.01
29%
3.40
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
0 – 0
13.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
Ljungskile SK xG
Total xG
2.04
0.94
Norrby IF xG
2.67
37%
Home win
3.01
33%
Draw
3.40
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.38
58%
BTTS No
1.73
Clean Sheet
39%
2.57
33%
3.00
Win to Nil
15%
6.85
10%
10.19
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.0 | 12.3 | 5.8 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.3 | 13.5 | 6.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 7.4 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 2.9 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ljungskile SK vs Norrby IF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Ljungskile SK and Norrby IF expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for Ljungskile SK and 0.94 for Norrby IF, a combined total of 2.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Ljungskile SK vs Norrby IF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Ljungskile SK's recent record stands at 6W 6D 9L from 21 games, a 1.14 PPG return, with D-L-L-D-L in the last five. The sample for Ljungskile SK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Norrby IF, meanwhile, have gone 4W 11D 6L across 21 games — 1.10 PPG, with D-W-L-D-L in their last five. The sample for Norrby IF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.14 PPG for Ljungskile SK against 1.10 for Norrby IF. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Ljungskile SK have managed 4W 1D 6L from 11 games — 1.18 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Norrby IF's away record stands at 1W 6D 4L across 11 trips, a 0.82 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Ljungskile SK are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Norrby IF are on 1.19 scored and 1.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Norrby IF in 62%.
Last 21 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ljungskile SK
Blended
Norrby IF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ljungskile SK and Norrby IF in coming into this match?
Ljungskile SK have gone 6W 6D 9L in their last 21 games (1.14 PPG), while Norrby IF have gone 4W 11D 6L in their last 21 (1.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ljungskile SK at home or Norrby IF away?
Ljungskile SK's home record (1.18 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ljungskile SK at home: 1.18 PPG; Norrby IF away: 0.82 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 1 times since May 2026 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. They last met on 23 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Last 1 Meetings
0
Ljungskile SK
0
Draws
1
Norrby IF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ljungskile SK and Norrby IF?
From 1 meetings on record, Ljungskile SK have won 0, Norrby IF have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Ljungskile SK and Norrby IF last play each other?
They last met on 23 May 2026, when Norrby IF 2-1 Ljungskile SK.
Who has won more matches between Ljungskile SK and Norrby IF?
Norrby IF have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 1 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Ljungskile SK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Norrby IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 27% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ljungskile SK 54%, Norrby IF 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Ljungskile SK) and 27% (Norrby IF).
On the defensive side: Ljungskile SK have failed to score in 36% of games; Norrby IF in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ljungskile SK home games / Norrby IF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ljungskile SK play Norrby IF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Ljungskile SK's recent matches and 54% of Norrby IF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ljungskile SK vs Norrby IF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Ljungskile SK's recent games and 27% of Norrby IF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ljungskile SK and Norrby IF tend to score early?
Ljungskile SK have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Norrby IF in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.